Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

0700 , analysis , brokers , gmt , majors , short , technical , term , windsor

Euro failed to break or even test any support or resistance levels during the previous session. It spent most of the time trading in a tight 30 pip range between 1.3390 and 1.3360. So the bullish outlook remains as long as trading stays above 1.3330 with the same targets at 1.3410 & 1.3440. Momentum indicators RSI, MACD give no signals which means the bullish outlook is weak. German ifo Business Climate is the figure to watch out for today for the EURUSD at 8:00am GMT

Res: 1.3410, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3520

Sup: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3230

Overall we saw narrow trading within a 40 pip range, however there was an attempt to break the 1.5600 level. It did manage to rise above it reaching 1.5610, but the candle on the H1 failed to close above 1.5600 resistances so we will consider it a false break and that resistance still valid. We see here the same scenario as the euro were momentum indicators show weak momentum on both the buy and sell side, which may continue today with lack of figures from the UK

Res: 1.5600, 1.5640, 1.5700, 1.5720

Sup: 1.5540, 1.5515, 1.5490, 1.5420

Strong moves on the Yen, continuing its downtrend breaking 98.40 supports and falling further to test 98.10. The first attempt failed to show a candle closing below that support and we saw a subsequent rise. It currently dropped back to that level and is testing it again. Although now it’s trading below 98.10t, we won’t consider it broken until it trades for some time below it proving the market is comfortable breaking that support and not just another failed attempt

Res: 98.40, 98.80, 99.15, 99.35,

Sup: 98.10, 97.85, 97.30, 97.55

The Aussie breaks 0.8970 support and looks heading to test 0.8930. However we might see a brief retracement before that happens. It’s important to note that 0.8930 will be a much more difficult barrier for it to pass, as it is the low of the previous downtrend that ended on the 2nd of August. Moving averages 20 & 55 plus momentum indicator RSI(14) point down.

Res: 0.9040, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9150

Sup:, 0.8930, 0.8900, 0.8845, 0.8800

EURUSD

Again we see a failure to break any support or resistance levels during the previous session. There was 2 attempt to break 1.3330 support, first time dropping to daily low 1.3322 and second time to 1.3327, however in both cases the candle on the H1 chart failed to close below 1.3330 support making it a failed attempt instead of a genuine break. This means the outlook remains the same and no change to any support or resistance levels.

Watch out for US pending Home Sales m/m at 2:00pm GMT which is expected at 0.2% an improvement on the previous reading of -0.4%

Res: 1.3410, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3520

Sup: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3230

Strong downward momentum for the Sterling, we saw it break 2 supports (1.5540 & 1.5515) and continued to drop to test the 3rd support at 1.5490. It did manage to achieve a daily low below that level at 1.5480 however the candle on the H1 chart did not close below it so we will consider it just a test and not a break, so the support still holds. Sterling retraced up 75 pips later on and now looks like it’s going for another shot at the 1.5490 support

Res: 1.5555, 1.5600, 1.5640, 1.5700,

Sup: 1.5490, 1.5420, 1.5375. 1.5300

The previous session was a big losing day for USDJPY, with the daily range between high and low at 155 pips. This steep drop broke all 4 previously mentioned supports 98.10, 97.8, 97.55 and 97.30. A strong achievement for just 1 day. It achieved a trend low of 96.80 which will be our first support level for today, since that low USDJPY took a brief break retracing 60 pips back up to 97.40 during today’s early trading. Japan's Nikkei ends down 1.5% at 13,338.46

Res: 97.40, 97.70, 98.00 98.40

Sup: 96.80, 96.40, 96.00, 95.80

After 2 previous failed attempts to break 0.8930 support, the Aussie finally did earlier today and continued its fall to test next support at 0.8900, which is also today’s daily low. We saw a 30 pip retracement afterwards which is usually expected. The current downtrend for AUDUSD on the H1 chart is from 0.9070 (26th August) to 0.8900. The outlook will remain bearish today as long as trading stays below 0.9030 with a revisit of 0.8900 and further fall to 0.8845 as our targets

Res: 0.9000, 0.9040, 0.9100, 0.9130

Sup:, 0.8900, 0.8845, 0.8800, 0.8769

Gold has seen 4 consecutive sessions of gains and today appears to continue this trend. It found no problem breaking our 3 resistances 1407, 1415 and 1425 to achieve a current uptrend high at 1433. Gold futures declined early Wednesday, with the safe-haven asset taking a breather after surging into a bull market on concerns about military action against Syria. Only a drop back below 1400 will we reverse our current bullish outlook

Res: 1433, 1445, 1455, 1490

Sup: 1413, 1405, 1390, 1370

EURUSD

Euro broke 1.3330 support and continued its fall to test 1.3300. Afterwards it retraced back up to 1.3345 and now looks back on its way to test 1.3300 again. So currently our outlook switches to bearish as long as trading stays below 1.3370. The dollar rose against major rivals Wednesday, holding on to gains as investors continued to worry about a possible military strike in Syria. U.S. Fed is likely to slow its monthly bond purchases and perhaps even raise interest rates. Currencies tend to sell off in periods of global risk aversion or rising U.S. interest rates

Res: 1.3370, 1.3410, 1.3450, 1.3480

Sup1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3230, 1.3300

Sterling continued its current downtrend breaking 1.5490 support and falling further to test 1.5420. Since it has retraced back up almost 100 pips testing key pivot point 1.5555, which if successful will reverse our outlook to bullish. England’s central bank said it stands ready to step up stimulus efforts if rising interest rates threaten economic recovery in Britain. It emphasized that the previously mentioned 7% unemployment rate is a threshold, not trigger, for raising UK interest rates

Res: 1.5555, 1.5600, 1.5640, 1.5700

Sup: 1.5480, 1.5420, 1.5375. 1.5300

The USDJPY on the H1 chart made a complete reversal of the previous downtrend. Among the signs was that head and shoulders patterns after hitting a low of 96.80, and it later continued to rise to break the downward channel and rise above the 55 exponential moving average, breaking 2 resistances on its way 97.40 and 97.70. So our current outlook is bullish as long as trading is maintained above 97.15 with our first target at 98.00. Most Asian stocks advance, tracking a rebound on Wall Street, with the energy sector particularly strong after U.S. benchmark crude-oil prices top $110-a-barrel overnight

Res: 98.00 98.40, 98.75, 99.15

Sup: 97.40, 97.15, 96.80, 96.40,

We didn’t see any major moves on the Aussie as compared to the other currencies, however we did see it test 0.8900 twice but fail to break it, proving itself a strong support. Currently it’s trading close to psychological 0.9000 resistance and we will monitor if it will be able to break it as it already failed once before. If it does break it this leaves 0.9040 and 0.9100 targets in view.

Res: 0.9000, 0.9040, 0.9100, 0.9130

Sup:, 0.8900, 0.8845, 0.8800, 0.8769

After achieving an uptrend high of 1433, gold has dropped 27 dollars so far breaking 1413 support and is currently testing 1405. If it does break that support then we will not just consider it a retracement but a full reversal of the uptrend on the H1 chart. The drop comes with a gain in the U.S. dollar on Syria-related concerns tugging at prices after they climbed to their best levels in nearly three months.

Res: 1422, 1433, 1445, 1455,

Sup: 1405, 1390, 1378, 1370

Res: 1.3253; 1.3284; 1.3300; 1.3344

Sup: 1.3205; 1.3172; 1.3140; 1.3100

Res: 1.5572; 1.5600; 1.5636; 1.5700

Sup: 1.5546; 1.5504; 1.5461; 1.5427

The pair continues to trend higher, off 96.80 low, with price approaching psychological 99.00 barrier and 99.14, 23/08 high. Repeated attempt above bear-channel off 101.52 peak, sees scope for eventual attempt through 99.14, near-term congestion top, above which to confirm higher **** at 96.80 and allow for further retracement of 101.52/96.80 downleg. Positive studies on lower timeframes support the notion. Initial supports lay at 98.50 and 97.87.

Res: 99.00; 99.14; 99.25; 99.93

Sup: 98.50; 98.27; 98.00; 97.87

The Aussie remains under pressure, as fresh extension of downleg from 0.9332 peak, retested 0.8890 low, where temporary footstep was found. Corrective rally is under way, with the price cracking 50% retracement of 0.9068/0.8890 descend and approaching psychological 0.9000 barrier. Sustained break here is seen as minimum requirement to signal near-term **** and allow for stronger recovery, however, gains should be limited, as larger timeframes studies being negative and keeping the risk of full retracement of 0.8846/0.9232 upleg in play.

Res: 0.9000; 0.9026; 0.9068; 0.9100

Sup: 0.8962; 0.8923; 0.8890; 0.8846

Res: 1.3200; 1.3258; 1.3284; 1.3300

Sup: 1.3140; 1.3100; 1.3087; 1.3066

Res: 1.5592; 1.5636; 1.5700; 1.5716

Sup: 1.5530; 1.5500; 1.5461; 1.5427

The pair continues to trend higher, off 96.80 low, with break above psychological 99.00 barrier and 99.14, 23/08 high, heading towards psychological 100 barrier. Sustained break above bear-channel brings near-term bulls fully in play, with daily indicators breaking above the midlines and supporting the notion. Break and close above 100 barrier is required to completion of weekly bullish pennant and open next targets at 100.85 and 101.52.

Res: 99.69; 100.00; 100.44; 100.85/.

Sup: 99.14; 99.00; 98.50; 98.27

Near-term structure remains positive, as the price heads higher off near-term **** and double-bottom at 0.8891. Sustained break above psychological 0.9000 barrier, opens way for extension towards 0.9068, 26/08 high, to complete the downleg and confirm double-bottom formation, break of which to signal possible stronger recovery. Positive near-term studies remain supportive. From the other side, larger picture remains bearish, with downside risk being in play as long as 0.9230/40 barriers cap.

Res: 0.9000; 0.9026; 0.9068; 0.9100

Sup: 0.8962; 0.8923; 0.8890; 0.8846

Res: 1.3172; 1.3200; 1.3236; 1.3266

Sup: 1.3136; 1.3100; 1.3066; 1.3050

Res: 1.5571; 1.5603; 1.5636; 1.5648

Sup: 1.5521; 1.5500; 1.5461; 1.5427

The pair remains steady and continues to trend higher, en-route towards psychological 100 barrier, with 99.85 seen so far. Positive near-term technicals support the action, with sustained break above 100 barrier, to signal completion of weekly bullish pennant and open next targets at 100.85 and 101.52. Near-term consolidation lows at 99.22/15, along with 99.00, offer initial support. Only reversal under 98.50, 29/08 high, would delay and signal stronger correction.

Res: 99.85; 100.00; 100.44; 100.85

Sup: 99.14; 99.00; 98.50; 98.27

The pair remains well supported and extends near-term recovery rally off 0.8890 double-bottom, with 0.9100, psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9232/0.8890 barrier, being taken out. The price also cracked daily 55DMA, setting scope for final push through 0.9175, daily cloud ****, towards key near-term barriers at 0.9220/32 double-top. Near-term studies are positive, however, overbought conditions require caution, as corrective pullback would precede fresh rally. Initial support lies at 0.9068, 26/08 previous high.

Res: 0.9152; 0.9188; 0.9200; 0.9220

Sup: 0.9100; 0.9068; 0.9000; 0.8977