Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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EUR/USD

The Euro trades in a sideways mode, consolidating recent reversal from 1.3710 that found footstep at 1.3352, the midpoint of 1.2996/1.3710 upleg. Near-term price action moves within 1.3352 and 1.3428, last Friday’s high / low, as yesterday’s recovery rally stalled at 1.3426, where 4h 20 day EMA capped. Hourly studies remain neutral, while 4h structure is still neutral and sees the downside at risk, as long as the price holds within near-term bear-channel off 1.3710. Initial barriers lie at 1.3428 and 1.3438, Fib 38.2% of 1.3710/1.3352, ahead of pivotal 1.3460 area, 05 Feb low / 50% of 1.3576/1.3352 / channel resistance, break of which to signal recovery, confirmation of which requires break above 1.3500. On the downside, slide below 1.3352 would signal bearish continuation and open psychological 1.3300 support, ahead of more significant 1.3260, higher platform / bull-trendline off 1.2660.

Res: 1.3400, 1.3428, 1.3458, 1.3500
Sup: 1.3375, 1.3352, 1.3300, 1.3265







GBP/USD

Cable lost ground after pullback from last Friday’s high at 1.5843 accelerated and lost 1.5740/00 handles, to nearly fully retrace 1.5630/1.5843 recovery rally. This suggests that broader bearish structure, triggered by break below four-month range and multi-year bull-trendline from 2009 low at 1.3500, remains intact and keeps the downside in focus. Completion of near-term corrective phase below 1.5630, opens 1.5600, then 1.5530, Fib 76.4% of 1.5267/1.6380 ascend. Previous supports at 1.5700 and 1.5740 now act as resistances and are expected to cap for now.

Res: 1.5680, 1.5700, 1.5740, 1.5765
Sup: 1.5640, 1.5630, 1.5600, 1.5530










USD/JPY

Bulls returned to play after recovery rally from 92.17 **** accelerated through 94.00 barrier that signals bullish continuation of larger uptrend from 77.00 zone. This brings our initial target at 94.97, May 2010 high, in near-term focus, break of which to confirm medium-term **** and signal stronger recovery of 2007/2011 downtrend. Corrective dips are seen preceding fresh rally, as the price pulls back from yesterday’s fresh high at 94.45, with 94.00 zone holding for now. Only slide below 92.00, would have the stronger impact on the near-term structure.

Res: 94.35, 94.45, 94.97, 95.72
Sup: 93.85, 93.58, 93.31, 93.00







USD/CHF

The pair holds positive tone, as break 0.9200 barrier, 50% of 0.9387/0.9020 descend signals resumption of recovery rally from 0.9020 that paused on 0.9200/0.9150 consolidative phase. Positive near-term studies support the notion, with initial barrier at 0.9247, Fib 61.8%, seen as a trigger for extension towards psychological / Fib 76.4% resistance at 0.9300. Any slide below 0.9200, should hold above 0.9150, recent rage floor, to keep near-term bulls afloat. However, overall bearish tone persists and improvement requires regain of 0.9400 zone, previous highs / 200 day MA.

Res: 0.9247, 0.9273, 0.9300, 0.9323
Sup: 0.9200, 0.9178, 0.9150, 0.9115

EUR/USD

The single currency regained some ground, as bounce from 1.3352 **** cracked important barrier at 1.3365, channel resistance / 50% of 1.3576/1.3352, but failed to break higher. Consolidative action is for now held by hourly 20 day EMA and above 1.3430, previous range tops that keeps immediate focus at the upside. However, hourly studies are in positive territory but lacking momentum for now, while 4h structure looks more supportive. Break above 1.3465 is seen as initial trigger for further recovery, with clearance of 1.3500 barrier, near 61.8%, required to confirm. Conversely, slide under 1.3400, would weaken the structure and re-focus 1.3352.

Res: 1.3465, 1.3477, 1.3490, 1.3500
Sup: 1.3430, 1.3400, 1.3370, 1.3352





GBP/USD

Yesterday’s recovery rally from fresh annual low at 1.5572, retraced daily losses and returned to the opening levels, but lacked strength to clear pivotal 1.5700 barrier, also 50% of 1.5843/1.5572. Slight improvement on hourly studies is insufficient for stronger recovery for now, as 4h structure remains negative, along with overall bearish picture that describes the latest rally as corrective and preceding fresh weakness. Slide below 1.5600/1.5572 is expected to open 1.5530, Fib 76.4% of 1.5267/1.6380 and 1.5500 next. Only clear break above 1.5700, would delay immediate bears for 1.5740/1.5780, while more significant improvement requires regain of 1.5843/77 peaks.

Res: 1.5675, 1.5688, 1.5700, 1.5740
Sup: 1.5645, 1.5600, 1.5572, 1.5545






USD/JPY

Sharp reversal from yesterday’s high at 94.40 dipped below important 93.00, Fib 61.8% of 92.17/94.45 and weakened near-term structure. Dips were so far contained by 55 day EMA at 92.80, with quick reversal above 93.00, keeping the bullish stance. However, failure to regain 93.60, yesterday’s intraday high and 50% of 94.40/92.80 slide, would risk fresh weakness that may focus key near-term support at 92.00, loss of which would be bearish. From the other side, lift above 93.60 and regain of 94.40, to bring bulls fully in play for possible retest of strong 94.45/40 barrier.

Res: 93.44, 93.60, 93.85, 94.00
Sup: 93.00, 92.80, 92.44, 92.17





USD/CHF

The pair lost traction, after failure to clear 0.9200 breakpoint, as gains stalled at 0.9213, capped by daily Ichimoku cloud ****. Subsequent reversal returned to near-term range floor at 0.9150 that so far contained dip, along with 55 day EMA. Negative hourly structure keeps the downside at risk, with 4h chart indicators losing momentum. Loss of 0.9150/40, recent range floor and Fib 38.2% of 0.9020/0.9213 would revive near-term bears for test of 0.9100, while lift above 0.9200, requires regain of 0.9247, 50% of 0.9387/0.9020, to improve.

Res: 0.9180, 0.9200, 0.9213, 0.9247
Sup: 0.9150, 0.9115, 0.9100, 0.9065

EUR/USD

The Euro came under increased pressure after yesterday’s upside rejection at 1.3518, accelerating loses through 1.3428, previous highs and broken channel line and psychological 1.3400 support. With over 76.4% of 1.3352/1.3518 ascend being reversed so far, immediate focus shifts towards near-term **** at 1.3352, also 50% of larger 1.2996/1.3710 upleg, below which to signal resumption of downtrend from 1.3710, towards 1.3300 and 1.3265/70 higher platform / bull-trendline off 1.2660. Negative near-term studies support the notion. Corrective rallies would face good barriers at 1.3428 and 1.3460 zone and only break here would turn focus higher.

Res: 1.3400, 1.3428, 1.3465, 1.3477
Sup: 1.3370, 1.3352, 1.3300, 1.3270






GBP/USD

Cable continues to move south, approaching our next target at 1.5500. Strong bearish tone in short-term studies suggests that further extension lower is likely, as clearance of psychological 1.5500 support is expected to open 1.5489/57, Aug 2012 lows initially, with key med-term supports at 1.5267 and 1.5233, Jan / June 2012, coming in near-term focus. Possible hesitation at 1.5500 handle would be expected on oversold 1/4h conditions, with corrective rallies seen limited at 1.5630 zone.


Res: 1.5571, 1.5584, 1.5600, 1.5630
Sup: 1.5500, 1.5489, 1.5457, 1.5392







USD/JPY

Near-term price action moves in a sideways mode, with 93.00 zone protecting the downside and keeping slightly positive tone in play. Regain of initial barrier and range top at 93.76, as well as 94.00, previous high, is required confirm bullish structure and confirm higher low at 92.81, for attempt at recent peaks at 94.40/45. Conversely, slide below 93.00/92.80, would weaken near-term structure and shift focus towards key near-term support at 92.00.

Res: 93.76, 93.90, 94.00, 94.40
Sup: 93.12, 93.00, 92.80, 92.44






USD/CHF

No significant changes seen in past sessions, as the price action was entrenched between 0.9150 and 0.9213 range. Near-term tone is slightly aligned towards the upside, following attempts at range tops, however, sustained break above 0.9200 and regain of Fibonacci barrier at 0.9247, is required to confirm bullish resumption and open way for fresh extension towards 0.9300. On the downside, range floor at 0.9150 guards 0.9100.

Res: 0.9218, 0.9247, 0.9300, 0.9323
Sup: 0.9165, 0.9150, 0.9115, 0.9100