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The Euro fell sharply yesterday after unsuccessful attempt above 1.3000, with 1.3047 double-top left, before the pair spiraled lower. Loss of previous low and near-term range floor, as well as close below 200 day MA, would be a signal of further weakness, as a part of broader downtrend from 1.3710, annual high. Bounce from fresh low at 1.2826, posted yesterday, is so far seen corrective and triggered by oversold hourly conditions, while 4h indicators maintain bearish tone and 20/55 day EMA’s bearish crossover, keeping the downside pressured. Rallies could extend to 1.2940/50 zone, 50% retracement of yesterday’s fall, before bears re-assert. Only regain of 1.2980 would bring some more positive tone and delay bears. As the downside remains vulnerable, possible penetration of 1.2800 psychological support and low of Sep 2012, would open way towards the next significant levels at 1.2679/60, Fib 61.8% of 1.2042/1.3710 rally and Nov 2012 low.
Res: 1.2910, 1.2937, 1.2963, 1.2977
Sup: 1.2826, 1.2800, 1.2780, 1.2750
Cable maintains positive tone, correcting the recent rally that posted fresh high at 1.5259 yesterday. Cracking the previous very strong support and med-term range bottom, now reversed to resistance, suggests that further recovery is likely. As the pullback from 1.5259 was contained by bull-trendline off 1.4830 and 50% retracement of 1.5026/1.5259 upleg, 4h studies see room for fresh gains and attack at initial 1.5259/67 targets that would open psychological 1.5300 barrier and 1.5320, 21 Feb high. However, near-term downside risk is still present, as hourly studies are weak, with violation of the trendline at 1.5162 and yesterday’s low at 1.5142, to trigger fresh weakness and expose immediate targets at 1.5115/00, Fib 61.8% / round figure support.
Res: 1.5206, 1.5220, 1.5259, 1.5267
Sup: 1.5162, 1.5142, 1.5100, 1.5070
The pair dipped further after completing bearish pennant and fresh weakness extended to 93.52, over 50% of 90.85/96.70 rally. Firm bearish tone, seen on 4h chart studies, keeps the downside favored for now, with 20/55 day EMA’s bearish crossover, pressuring. Corrective bounce off 93.52, faces trendline resistance / 55 day EMA at 94.60, as initial resistance, with any further extension higher, seen capped under 95.00 barrier. Continuation of bear-trend through 93.52, to open 93.00/92.90, Fib 61.8% / 05 Mar low.
Res: 94.60, 95.00, 95.12, 95.50
Sup: 93.85, 93.52, 93.00, 92.90
The pair remains steady and continues to post fresh highs, following break above 1.0400 congestion. Fresh high at 1.0478, posted yesterday, comes under pressure, following shallow consolidation, with near-term focus at psychological 1.0500 resistance and 1.0526, 03 Jan high. Near-term studies are well positioned, with hourly RSI/MACD bearish divergence, so far being ignored by the price action.
Res: 1.0500, 0.0526, 1.0550, 1.0577
Sup: 1.0457, 1.0441, 1.0420, 1.0400
The single currency erased recent gains on yesterday’s fall, as risk-off mode returns to play. Failure to clear important 1.3200 barrier, left a double-top that triggered sharp fall to psychological 1.3000 support. Denting the near-term **** above 1.3000, turns the sentiment negative, as 4h indicators are breaking below their midlines and price holds below 20 and 55 day EMA’s that keeps the downside at increased risk. Break of initial 1.3000 support to open for further easing, with next level to watch at 1.2972/18, 50% / 61.8% of 1.2744/1.3200 rally. Recovery attempts are seen limited for now, with 1.3100 barrier, 50% of yesterday’s fall and near 20/55 EMA’s bearish crossover, seen capping.
Res: 1.3075, 1.3100, 1.3122, 1.3150
Sup: 1.3020, 1.3000, 1.2972, 1.2918
Cable remains in a negative mode, following upside rejection at 1.5400, with 4h H&S pattern being completed on a break below the neckline at 1.5270. Fresh extension below the latter that also marks previous tops, keeps the downside at risk, with psychological 1.5200 support being in near-term focus, as the price retraced 50% of 1.5032/1.5410 upleg. Hourly indicators are pointing higher, correcting the oversold conditions, butt holding in the red territory, while 4h studies maintain negative tone and the price holds below moving averages. Downside targets lie at 1.5200 and 1.5175, with corrective rallies expected to be limited under 1.5300/40 barriers.
Res: 1.5300, 1.5316, 1.5340, 1.5378
Sup: 1.5220, 1.5200, 1.5175, 1.5120
The pair stabilizes around 98.00 level, following recovery rally from fresh low at 95.80, posted on 16 Apr. Near-term price action is entrenched within 97.20/98.40 consolidation range, with hourly structure holding neutral tone. Slight improvement on 4h studies still lacks momentum for fresh extension higher that requires break above range top at 98.42, to expose next barrier at 99.00 and shift near-term focus higher. Conversely, loss of range bottom at 97.20, would risk fresh weakness.
Res: 98.42, 98.70, 99.00, 99.52
Sup: 97.62, 97.20, 97.00, 96.57
The pair remains under pressure, as near-term corrective phase, capped at 1.0400, has been completed and the price posted fresh low at 1.0267. With near-term studies maintaining negative tone and risk-aversion being in play, further weakness is seen as likely scenario, with Fib 76.4% at 1.0224 and psychological 1.0200 levels seen as next target. However, overextended 4h conditions, do not rule out fresh corrective action that is seen for now capped at 1.0400.
Res: 1.0332, 1.0375, 1.0400, 1.0435
Sup: 1.0280, 1.0267, 1.0224, 1.0200
The Euro held within tight range during the Asian session, holding below 1.3100 barrier, despite 30-pips gap higher weekly opening. Bounce of recent range bottom at 1.3000 was rejected at 1.3125, Fib 61.8% of 1.3200/1.3000 descend, with Friday’s fall and close below 1.3100, keeping the downside vulnerable. Near-term studies are negatively aligned, as the price was unable to clear 20 day EMA. Immediate support lays at 1.3045, Fri/Thu lows and break lower to re-focus psychological 1.3000, key near-term support. Formation of diamond pattern on a daily chart, signals reversal that requires break below 1.3000 and 1.2972, 50% retracement of 1.2744/1.3200 ascend, to be confirmed. Any bounce through 1.3100/25, would improve near-term structure, however, clearance of 1.3200 would bring bulls fully in play.
Res: 1.3083, 1.3100, 1.3125, 1.3150
Sup: 1.3045, 1.3025, 1.3000, 1.2972
Cable ended the week under heavy pressure, with negative fundamentals triggering sharp fall. Losses extended overnight and tested near-term **** at 1.5200 zone, signaling further weakness. Immediate target and strong support lays at 1.5175, Fib 61.8% of 1.5032/1.5410 rally / daily Ichimoku cloud ****, with negative tone on the lower timeframes and double-top left at 1.5380, last week’s highs, supporting the notion. Bearish 20/55 day EMA’s crossover at 1.5280 zone, keeps the upside limited for now
Res: 1.5244, 1.5265, 1.5284, 1.5300
Sup: 1.5200, 1.5175, 1.5121, 1.5100
The pair flirts with psychological 100.00 barrier again, as strong bounce of last week’s correction low at 95.80, extended close to 100.00. The barrier is strong, as previous attempt here failed and overbought hourly studies suggest hesitation. Indicators on 4h chart, however, see room for test and break above 100.00 barrier, to open next significant barrier at 101.43, Apr 2009 high. Corrective dips should be contained by 99.00/98.50 support zone, to keep near-term bulls intact.
Res: 99.87, 99.93, 100.00, 100.50
Sup: 99.50, 99.33, 99.00, 98.50
The pair remains under pressure at the beginning of the weeks, continuing broader weakness, sparked on upside rejection at 1.0581 on 11 Apr. Marginally fresh low at 1.0265 was posted overnight, with near-term bears being firmly in play and price being limited by descending 20 day EMA. As daily studies broke in the negative territory, further weakness towards 1.0224/00, Fib 76.4% of 1.0114/1.0581 / round figure support, could be anticipated. Any corrective action faces solid resistance at 1.0357, last Friday’s high, while penetration through 1.0400 barrier, is requires to ease immediate bear-pressure.
Res: 1.0300, 1.0336, 1.0357, 1.0400
Sup: 1.0265, 1.0224, 1.0200, 1.0114
The remains weak, following yesterday’s fall that cracked 1.3000 support and dipped to 1.2972, where the pair found temporary footstep at 50% retracement of 1.2744/1.3200 rally. With quiet overnight trading, concentrated around 1.3000 handle, near-term focus is shifted towards the downside, as 1 and 4h studies hold negative tone and daily diamond pattern has been completed. Penetration through 1.2972 would look for another significant support zone at 1.2930/20, 200 day MA / Fib 61.8% retracement. The upside is seen capped at 1.3080/1.3100, while clearance of 1.3130 barrier would turn focus towards the upside.
Res: 1.3027, 1.3050, 1.3083, 1.3100
Sup: 1.2972, 1.2930, 1.2918, 1.2900
Cable continues to trade within 1.5200/1.5300 range, as yesterday’s fresh attempt through the near-term **** failed. Near-term studies remain negatively aligned and keep 1.5200 in focus, while 1.5286/1.5300 highs are expected to limit the upside attempts. From the other side, larger picture bulls remain in play, as pullback from 1.5410 high, found support at 50% of 1.4830/1.5410 ascend and bull trendline off 1.4830 at 1.5200 zone. Violation of the latter would weaken the daily structure and sideline bulls from 1.4830, in favor of further reversal.
Res: 1.5286, 1.5300, 1.5328, 1.5367
Sup: 1.5225, 1.5200, 1.5175, 1.5121
The pair recovered most of 22/23 Apr reversal, when repeated failure on approach to 100.00 barrier triggered fresh weakness. With dips finding support at 98.50 and fresh strength through 99.00, approaching 100.00 barrier, near-term bulls are fully in play. Yesterday’s price action was briefly interrupted by news that triggered increased volatility, but price quickly returned to its initial direction. Studies on 1 and 4h charts maintain positive tone and keep the upside favored for another attempt at psychological 100.00 barrier, while 99.00 offers initial support and 98.50, reinforced by ascending 55 day EMA, expected to protect the downside.
Res: 99.74, 99.87, 99.93, 100.00
Sup: 99.22, 99.00, 98.50, 98.00
The pair remains under pressure, as recovery attempt off yesterday’s fresh low at 1.0220, stayed limited under initial 1.0300 barrier. Downside acceleration, seen overnight and triggered by weaker than expected Australian data, maintain negative sentiment for renewed attempt at 1.0220 and psychological 1.0200 support, ahead of med-term range support at 1.0114, low of 04 Mar 2013.
Res: 1.0274, 1.0300, 1.0336, 1.0357
Sup: 1.0230, 1.0220, 1.0200, 1.0114
The Euro holds above 1.3000 but still directionless, moving within 1.2950/1.3100 range. Slight improvements seen on overnight’s gap-higher opening and upside aligned hourly studies, keep the immediate barrier at 1.3100 in near-term focus. Break above 1.3100, also 4h triangle resistance, would avert the downside risk, in favor of extension towards next barrier at 1.3127, 19 Apr high, to confirm near-term **** at 1.2950 and possibly re-open key 1.3200 resistance. Psychological 1.3000 support keeps the near-term price action supported for now, with any penetration lower, to weaken the structure.
Res: 1.3076, 1.3092, 1.3127, 1.3142
Sup: 1.3030, 1.3000, 1.2987, 1.2950
Cable maintains positive tone, as fresh gains through psychological 1.5500 barrier that kept last week’s rally capped, now open way for fresh bulls. Immediate barrier lies at 1.5570, 100 day MA, ahead of 1.5605, 50% retracement of 1.6380/1.4830 downleg. Short-term studies remain positive but overbought that may signal hesitation on approach to the next targets. Previous peak and last Friday’s low at 1.5410/17 zone, offer solid support and should contain corrective dips.
Res: 1.5550, 1.5570, 1.5605, 1.5629
Sup: 1.5510, 1.5479, 1.5417, 1.5410
The pair remains under pressure, as last Friday’s fresh weakness and weekly close below 98.00 handle and overnight’s extension to 97.34, Fib 61.8% of 95.80/99.87 upleg, confirm near-term bears being in play. Corrective rally on oversold hourlies, faces initial resistance s at 98.00/30, with previous low and 50% retracement of 99.74/97.35 at 98.50, reinforced by 20/55 day EMA’s, bearish crossover seen as ideal cap. With near-term structure being negatively aligned, further downside is seen favored after the correction, with 97.20/00 seen as next targets. Conversely, extension above 98.50 would ease bear-pressure, however, regain of 99.00 barrier is required to shift focus higher and re-expose recent highs and psychological 100 barrier.
Res: 98.00, 98.30, 98.50, 98.82
Sup: 97.35, 97.20, 97.00, 96.75
The pair regained positive tone after upside rejection at 1.0335 and subsequent pullback found support at 1.0260. Fresh strength that surged through 1.0300 barrier overnight and approach of 1.0335/38 double-top, sees scope for extension of near-term recovery rally from 1.0220 low, with clear break above 1.0338 required to confirm and open immediate targets at 1.0357, 19 Apr high / Fib 38.2% of 1.0581/1.0220 fall and 1.0400, 14 Apr high / 50% retracement. Hourly structure remains positive, while 4h indicators are breaking above their midlines.
Res: 1.0336, 1.0357, 1.0400, 1.0443
Sup: 1.0300, 1.0261, 1.0230, 1.0220
The Euro extended recovery rally to briefly break above 1.3100 handle, however, gains were limited, as the price action was capped at 1.3115, failing to clear the barrier on repeated attempt. Pullback under 1.3100, could be seen as corrective, while price holds above 1.3050 zone, 50% of 1.2989/1.3115 upleg / 20 day EMA, as 4h indicators maintain positive tone, with higher low seen as good **** for possible fresh attempt above 1.3100/15, to possibly open key 1.3200 barrier. From the other side, slide below 1.3050, would risk return to 1.3000 **** and keep the near-term range top intact.
Res: 1.3100, 1.3115, 1.3127, 1.3142
Sup: 1.3069, 1.3050, 1.3030, 1.3000
Cable enters corrective mode, following yesterday’s rally through 1.5500 barrier that reached 1.5544 high so far. Daily close slightly below 1.5500 and fresh extension lower that tests 55 day EMA, risks deeper pullback, as hourly studies moved into negative territory. Further easing would face Fibonacci supports at 1.5444 (38.2%) and more significant 1.5410, 50% retracement of 1.5281/1.5544 rally and previous peak, loss of which to sideline near-term bulls. Studies on 4h chart are emerging from overbought zone and keep the price pressured.
Res: 1.5500, 1.5544, 1.5570, 1.5605
Sup: 1.5475, 1.5444, 1.5417, 1.5410
Near-term structure remains negative, as recovery rally from 97.34, yesterday’s low, remains capped at Fib 38.2% of 99.49/97.34 fall at 98.19. Hourly studies are weak, with more negative tone seen on 4h chart, where indicators hold in the negative territory and price pressured by 20/55 EMA’s bearish crossover, that keeps the downside favored. Slide below 97.35, also Fib 61.8% of 95.80/99.87 recovery and 97.20, 17 Apr low, to open way for further extension lower, where 96.75, 76.4% / previous peak of 12 Mar, is seen as next target and breakpoint. Risk of triple top completion is still high and loss of 96.70 is to confirm.
Res: 98.11, 98.19, 98.41, 98.70
Sup: 97.65, 97.35, 97.20, 97.00
The pair holds positive near-term tone off 1.0220 low, as fresh gains through 1.0335/38 resistance, cracked the next barrier at 1.0357, Fib 38.2% / daily Ichimoku cloud top and see potential for extension higher. Key near-term resistance at 1.0400, 14 Apr high / 50% retracement of 1.0581/1.0220, comes in focus, as break here is required to confirm **** at 1.0220 and resume recovery. Previous barriers at 1.0335/38, now offer initial support, with dips to be ideally contained at 1.0320 zone, to keep bulls intact.
Res: 1.0357, 1.0371, 1.0400, 1.0443
Sup: 1.0335, 1.0320, 1.0300, 1.0261
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