Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro holds above 1.3000 but still directionless, moving within 1.2950/1.3100 range. Slight improvements seen on overnight’s gap-higher opening and upside aligned hourly studies, keep the immediate barrier at 1.3100 in near-term focus. Break above 1.3100, also 4h triangle resistance, would avert the downside risk, in favor of extension towards next barrier at 1.3127, 19 Apr high, to confirm near-term **** at 1.2950 and possibly re-open key 1.3200 resistance. Psychological 1.3000 support keeps the near-term price action supported for now, with any penetration lower, to weaken the structure.

Cable maintains positive tone, as fresh gains through psychological 1.5500 barrier that kept last week’s rally capped, now open way for fresh bulls. Immediate barrier lies at 1.5570, 100 day MA, ahead of 1.5605, 50% retracement of 1.6380/1.4830 downleg. Short-term studies remain positive but overbought that may signal hesitation on approach to the next targets. Previous peak and last Friday’s low at 1.5410/17 zone, offer solid support and should contain corrective dips.

The pair remains under pressure, as last Friday’s fresh weakness and weekly close below 98.00 handle and overnight’s extension to 97.34, Fib 61.8% of 95.80/99.87 upleg, confirm near-term bears being in play. Corrective rally on oversold hourlies, faces initial resistance s at 98.00/30, with previous low and 50% retracement of 99.74/97.35 at 98.50, reinforced by 20/55 day EMA’s, bearish crossover seen as ideal cap. With near-term structure being negatively aligned, further downside is seen favored after the correction, with 97.20/00 seen as next targets. Conversely, extension above 98.50 would ease bear-pressure, however, regain of 99.00 barrier is required to shift focus higher and re-expose recent highs and psychological 100 barrier.
Res: 98.00, 98.30, 98.50, 98.82

The pair regained positive tone after upside rejection at 1.0335 and subsequent pullback found support at 1.0260. Fresh strength that surged through 1.0300 barrier overnight and approach of 1.0335/38 double-top, sees scope for extension of near-term recovery rally from 1.0220 low, with clear break above 1.0338 required to confirm and open immediate targets at 1.0357, 19 Apr high / Fib 38.2% of 1.0581/1.0220 fall and 1.0400, 14 Apr high / 50% retracement. Hourly structure remains positive, while 4h indicators are breaking above their midlines.

The Euro extended recovery rally to briefly break above 1.3100 handle, however, gains were limited, as the price action was capped at 1.3115, failing to clear the barrier on repeated attempt. Pullback under 1.3100, could be seen as corrective, while price holds above 1.3050 zone, 50% of 1.2989/1.3115 upleg / 20 day EMA, as 4h indicators maintain positive tone, with higher low seen as good **** for possible fresh attempt above 1.3100/15, to possibly open key 1.3200 barrier. From the other side, slide below 1.3050, would risk return to 1.3000 **** and keep the near-term range top intact.

Cable enters corrective mode, following yesterday’s rally through 1.5500 barrier that reached 1.5544 high so far. Daily close slightly below 1.5500 and fresh extension lower that tests 55 day EMA, risks deeper pullback, as hourly studies moved into negative territory. Further easing would face Fibonacci supports at 1.5444 (38.2%) and more significant 1.5410, 50% retracement of 1.5281/1.5544 rally and previous peak, loss of which to sideline near-term bulls. Studies on 4h chart are emerging from overbought zone and keep the price pressured.

Near-term structure remains negative, as recovery rally from 97.34, yesterday’s low, remains capped at Fib 38.2% of 99.49/97.34 fall at 98.19. Hourly studies are weak, with more negative tone seen on 4h chart, where indicators hold in the negative territory and price pressured by 20/55 EMA’s bearish crossover, that keeps the downside favored. Slide below 97.35, also Fib 61.8% of 95.80/99.87 recovery and 97.20, 17 Apr low, to open way for further extension lower, where 96.75, 76.4% / previous peak of 12 Mar, is seen as next target and breakpoint. Risk of triple top completion is still high and loss of 96.70 is to confirm.
Res: 98.11, 98.19, 98.41, 98.70

The pair holds positive near-term tone off 1.0220 low, as fresh gains through 1.0335/38 resistance, cracked the next barrier at 1.0357, Fib 38.2% / daily Ichimoku cloud top and see potential for extension higher. Key near-term resistance at 1.0400, 14 Apr high / 50% retracement of 1.0581/1.0220, comes in focus, as break here is required to confirm **** at 1.0220 and resume recovery. Previous barriers at 1.0335/38, now offer initial support, with dips to be ideally contained at 1.0320 zone, to keep bulls intact.

The Euro failed to sustain gains on yesterday’s rally through key 1.3200 barrier, as the price reversed lower after posting fresh high at 1.3240. Gains were capped by 50% retracement of larger 1.3710/1.2744 descend, with reversal below 1.3200 handle, softening near-term structure. The pullback found temporary support at 1.3150, 50% of 1.3053/1.3241 upleg and above trendline support / 61.8% / 20 day EMA at 1.3125. While above the latter, scope exists for fresh attempt at 1.3200, initial resistance and extension higher, as 4h structure is positive and favors further bulls, as a part of larger recovery from 1.2950. Conversely, loss of 1.3125 and psychological 1.3100, also 50% of 1.2950/1.3241, would signal top at 1.3241 and bring bears back to play.

Cable consolidates yesterday’s rally that dented initial target at 1.5605, 50% retracement of 1.6380/1.4830, with pullback being contained by 55 day EMA at 1.5540, for now. Positive structure on lower timeframes keeps the upside in focus, as clearance of 1.5605 is seen as a trigger for fresh extension of recovery rally from 1.4830. Any deeper pullbacks should be held above 1.5400 zone, to avert downside risk.

USD/JPY The pair holds above freshly established **** at 97.00, but downside pressure persists, as recovery attempts stay capped under initial 98.00 barrier and lower timeframes indicators hold in the negative territory. With descending 55 day EMA maintaining slide, immediate focus lays at 97.00, loss of which to resume larger downtrend from levels just under 100.00 barrier and expose breakpoint at 96.70, Fib76.4% of 95.80/99.87 ascend / 12 Mar previous high. Alternatively, confirmation of near-term **** at 97.00, requires clearance of 55 day EMA at 97.45 and more significant 98.00/25 resistance zone, 30/29 Apr highs / 50% retracement of 99.87/97.00 downleg.

Aussie dollar lost ground after upside rejection just under key 1.0400 barrier, as subsequent sharp reversal fully retraced 1.0220/1.0383, near-term recovery rally. With bears now full in play, penetration through psychological 1.0200 support, is expected to open way towards 1.0114, 04 Mar low, multi-month range floor and near 50% of med-term 0.9579/1.0623 ascend. Previous higher **** at 1.0260, now offers initial resistance, with any further extension higher, seen limited under 1.0300 for now.

The Euro remains in the range-trading mode, with slight improvement seen on a break above 1.3100 barrier, as near-term **** has been established at 1.3060 zone. Hourly and 4h structure remains weak, however, fresh strength threatens break through 4h triangle resistance at 1.3120, along with recent highs at 1.3130 zone, also 50% of 1.3241/1.3032 that is required to further improve near-term tone for possible extension towards the range tops. Conversely, slide below 1.3100., would shift the focus lower and expose 1.3060/30, strong support zone.

Cable trades in a near-term corrective mode, following yesterday’s sharp fall that found temporary support at 1.5445/1.5603 upleg. As lower timeframes studies weakened and indicators slid into negative territory, downside risk towards pivotal 1.5410/00 support zone, remains in play. Recovery attempts face good barrier at 1.5500, while only break above 1.5500, yesterday’s high, would ease immediate bear pressure.

USD/JPYThe pair remains at the back foot, following upside rejection at 99.44 on Monday and series of lower tops, defining near-term descend. With 99.00 barrier capping the upside and yesterday’s low at 98.63, coming under pressure, more risk is seen towards the downside in the near-term. However, break below 98.50, Fib 38.2% of 97.00/99.44 upleg and 55 day EMA, is required to confirm reversal and signal lower top at 99.44. Alternative scenario requires break above 99.34/44 highs to shift focus towards initial target and psychological barrier at 100.00.

The pair trades in a near-term recovery mode, off fresh lows posted at 1.0154, where basing attempt becomes evident. Yesterday’s loss of strong 1.0220 support and near-term ****, as well as psychological 1.0200 handle, keeps bears in play for eventual push towards key support and larger range bottom at 1.0114. Recovery rally needs to clear 1.0200/20, previous strong support, also Fib 38.2% of 1.0321/1.0154 descend, to ease immediate bear-pressure and allow for further recovery, however, overall bearish tone sees the action limited and keeps the downside in focus.

The Euro holds positive near-term tone after yesterday’s rally above hourly triangle resistance that peaked at 1.3192. Corrective easing has so far been contained by 20 day EMA at 1.3150 zone, near Fib 38.2% of 1.3070/1.3192 upleg. Indicators on 1 and 4h charts are in the positive territory that keep the upper boundary of near-term range at 1.3241 in focus, with initial barrier standing at 1.3200. On the downside, below 1.3150, next solid support lays at 1.3030, 50% retracement / previous high of 07 May and reinforced by 55 day EMA. Potential break here to weaken near-term structure

Cable remains steady, following yesterday’s test of levels near 1.5600 tops and subsequent pullback that found support at 1.5530, Fib 38.2% of 1.5445/1.5590 rally. Hourly indicators are reversing higher and holding above the midlines, with bullish 20/55 EMA’s crossover at 1.5520, also 50% retracement, underpinning the action. On the other side, 4h indicators are struggling at their midlines that would keep the downside risk in play, as long as 1.5600 barrier stays intact. Break here to resume short-term rally from 1.4830 and open next target at 1.5630.

USD/JPYThe pair remains in descending mode, following upside rejection at 99.44 on Monday and series of lower tops, confirming near-term downtrend that reached the lowest so far at 98.57, low of yesterday. While 99.00 barrier caps, the downside risk will persist, as hourly studies are negative and 4h indicators running out of steam. Break below 98.50, Fib 38.2% of 97.00/99.44 upleg and 55 day EMA, is required to confirm reversal and signal lower top at 99.44. Conversely, lift above 99.00 would avert immediate downside risk, however clearance of 99.34/44 highs is required to shift focus towards initial target and psychological barrier at 100.00.

The pair got boosted by fundamentals and rallied from the near-term **** at 1.0150 zone, with break above strong 1.0200/20 barriers reducing bear pressure, as gains reached 1.0250, Fib 61.8% of 1.0321/1.0154 downleg. With hourly studies turning bullish, situation on 4h chart is still fragile, as indicators hold in the negative territory. Break above trendline resistance at 1.0290 and psychological 1.0300 barrier would provide relief and avert scenario of slide below 1.0150 and test of multi-month range floor at 1.0114, 04 Mar low.

The Euro traded in consolidative mode during the Asian session, moving within narrow range and above last Friday’s fresh low at 1.2934 that marks Fib 61.8% of 1.2744/1.3241 recovery rally. The downside pressure persists, as the pair dented 200 day MA and near-term range floor at 1.2950, with weekly close above these supports, but below psychological 1.3000 barrier. Corrective rally above the later, may extend towards strong resistance at 1.2950/60 zone, last Friday’s high / 50% of 1.3193/1.2934 downleg, where rally should be capped. However, sustained break here, would sideline immediate bears and allow for stronger recovery. As near-term indicators hold in the negative territory, fresh weakness is still seen as likely scenario, with violation of 1.2950/34 supports, expected to open 1.2915, daily Ichimoku cloud bottom and psychological 1.2900 support.

Cable extended weakness off 1.5600 barrier and retraced 38.2% of larger 1.4830/1.5603 rally, on last Friday’s fall to 1.5313. Corrective rally on oversold near-term studies, would be short-lived and likely precede fresh weakness, as long as previous breakpoint at 1.5410 and Friday’s high / 50% of 1.5586/1.5313 fall limits the upside. The notion is supported by negative near-term technicals and double-top at 1.5590, as well as brief break below main bull trendline, drawn off 1.4830, 13 Mar low. However, further weakness below 1.5300 handle, needs to break key near-term support at 1.5200, to confirm top at 1.5600 area and signal end of two-months corrective rally.

The pair continue to trend higher, with last Friday’s and overnight probe above psychological 102.00 barrier, suggesting further bullish extension towards 103.00, next target, however, fresh bull-leg above psychological 100.00 barrier, could travel to 105.00. Corrective pullbacks are expected to be limited and any stronger reversal should be contained above 100.00 support. Initial supports lie at 101.00 and 101.80, Fib 38.2% of 98.63/102.14 upleg / 55 day EMA.
Res: 102.00, 102.14, 102.50, 103.00

Last Friday’s extension of larger downtrend and break below parity level, keeps the bears in play and sees scope for further extension, as the pair lost significant support at 1.0114, multi-month range floor. Dips were so far contained at 0.9960, above which, near-term consolidation is under way. With the upside, for now being capped by psychological 1.0000 barrier and 20 day EMA, recovery action should be limited, despite overextended near-term studies. Any stronger bounce, however, would require clearance of strong 1.0220/50 zone, to ease immediate bear pressure, otherwise, fresh weakness towards 0.9900, would be likely scenario.