Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro regained 1.3030 level during the Asian session, following weekly close below 200day MA and psychological 1.3000 support. Hourly indicators moved above the midlines, with positive 4h structure being supportive for further gains. Clearance of last Friday’s high at 1.3060, is required confirm higher low at 1.2943 and resume recovery rally off 1.2800 **** towards 1.3100, round figure resistance. Initial support lies at 1.3000, ahead of 1.2943, Friday’s low, being reinforced by 55 day EMA.

Cable extends overnight’s gains and breaks above last Friday’s high at 1.5238, keeping the near-term positive structure off 1.5000 ****. Scope is seen for further recovery, as 4h studies maintain positive tone and 20/55 day EMA’s bullish crossover underpins. Immediate targets lay at 1.5280/1.5300, with the latter being 50% of 1.5603/1.5007 downleg, break of which to confirm **** at 1.5000. Solid support lies at 1.5150/00 zone, reinforced by 20/55 day EMA’s crossover and should contain any stronger pullback.

The pair under pressure, following weekly close just above fresh low at 100.20 and overnight’s action being capped at 100.70. With near-term studies holding in the negative territory, immediate risk is seen on a break below 100.20, to open psychological 100.00 support and pivotal zone for retest, as break here is seen as a trigger for further easing and extension of corrective pullback from 103.72 high. Asian high at 100.70 offers initial resistance, ahead of 101.00, round figure / 20 day EMA.

The pair regained some ground on a bounce from last Friday’s low at 0.9548, as Asian session opened with gap higher and price bounced above 0.9600 barrier. However, overall negative tone keeps the downside risk in play, as the price holds within near-term consolidative range of 0.9527/0.9695 . While the latter barrier, reinforced by descending 55 day EMA, stays intact, no significant prospect for stronger recovery would be seen in the near-term, with violation of 0.9527, would trigger fresh weakness and expose psychological 0.9500 support for test.

The Euro holds positive near-term tone, following yesterday’s rally that probed levels above 1.3100 barrier. Corrective easing on overbought hourlies, was so far contained by 20 day EMA and the previous top at 1.3050, however, south-heading hourly indicators do not rule out further easing, with next good support standing at 1.3000, Fib 38.2% of 1.2837/1.3106 upleg / round figure. Studies on 4h chart hold firm tone and keep the upside favored for now, with clearance of 1.3100, also daily Ichimoku cloud top, expected to open way towards 1.3200 zone, with interim barrier at 1.3136, Fib 76.4%.

Cable extended recovery phase from 1.5000 double-bottom on yesterday’s rally and so far reached 1.5375, Fib 61.8% of 1.5603/1.5007 descend. Bulls continue to dominate on near-term studies and see potential for further recovery through psychological l.5400 barrier, however, corrective pullback is likely going to precede fresh gains, as near-term technicals are overbought. Initial support at 1.5300 was tested so far, with extension towards 1.5230, previous high / Fib 38.2% of 1.5007/1.5375 rally, seen not harmful for near-term bulls, in case dips will find support at this area. Otherwise, break lower and potential loss of 1.5200, 50% level, would put near-term bulls on hold.

The pair trades in a recovery mode, following yesterday’s acceleration lower after psychological 100.00 support has been taken out. Fresh weakness extended below 99.00 figure and posted fresh low at 98.85, where fresh strength emerged. Current rally that regained levels above 100.00 barrier, would be seen as corrective, as long as previous **** and 50% retracement of 102.51/98.85 fall at 100.70 caps. Violation of the latter, would be initial signal of stronger recovery. Otherwise, upside rejection below 100.700 would risk lower top and fresh extension of near-term bears off 103.72, 22 May peak.

The Aussie dollar eases from yesterday’s fresh high at 0.9790, posted on a strong rally that cleared initial barrier and near-term congestion top at 0.9700 zone. The pullback so far tested this support that should ideally contain and keep fresh bulls in play for possible stronger recovery. However, hourly studies are still in descending mode and further easing cannot be ruled out, with loss of 0.9669, 50% retracement of 0.9548/0.9790 upleg, seen as bearish trigger. Otherwise, the upside would remain in play, as 4h studies maintain positive tone.

The Euro picks up the pace at the beginning of European session and breaks above two-day congestion under 1.3100 barrier. Prevailing positive tone keeps the upside potential for full retracement of 1.3241/1.2795 descend in play, with interim barriers standing at 1.3136, Fib 76.4% retracement and psychological 1.3200, near 08 May high. Previous top at 1.3075, reinforced by hourly 20 day EMA, offers immediate support, ahead of psychological 1.3000, also 55 day EMA, where any dips should be ideally contained.

Cable continues to trend higher, as the latest upleg from 1.5270 higher low, cleared 1.5375/1.5400 hurdles and heads north. Immediate target lies at 1.5462, Fib 76.4% of 1.5603/1.5007 descend and is the lat barrier on the way towards 1.5600 zone, key near-term barrier and beginning of May highs. Near-term studies hold positive tone, however, overbought 1 and 4h reading may delay bulls in favor of corrective pullback. Previous barriers at 1.5400/1.5375, now offer initial supports.

The pair fully retraced near-term corrective phase from 98.85 that was capped at 100.40. Renewed weakness below 100.00 psychological support, sees increased downside risk for further extension of pullback from 103.72 high, with Fib 50% of 92.56/103.72 at 98.14, and psychological 98.00 support, seen on a break below 98.85 low. Consolidative phase is under way, with rallies expected to hold below 100.00 barrier and keep bears intact. Only break of 100.40 tops, would signal double-bottom and possible stronger recovery.

The remains under strong pressure, as fresh weakness emerged from the upside rejection at 0.9790, broke below previous low at 0.9527and posted fresh low at 0.9433. Larger bears from 1.0581 remain unobstructed for now and eye the next static support at 0.9382, October 2011 low, with interim support seen at 0.9400. Corrective bounce on oversold near-term studies, do not see much of the upside potential for now, with rallies expected to find solid resistance at 0.9550/0.9600 zone, before bears return to play.

The Euro remains firm, following completion of near-term consolidative phase and fresh rally through previous peak at 1.3305 and 25 Feb high at 1.3317. Fresh bulls are looking for test of 1.3341, Fib 61.8% of larger 1.3710/1.2744 descend, next upside target and psychological 1.3400 barrier. However, extended 4h conditions warn of corrective easing, before bulls take control, with good supports standing at 1.3270, Fib 38.2% / hourly 55 day EMA and 1.3230, Fib 61.8% of 1.3176/1.3333 upleg. Only slide below 1.3200 and higher **** at 1.3176, would delay bulls, in favor of deeper pullback.

Cable maintains positive near-term tone, after corrective pullback found support at 1.5500 zone. Fresh strength approaches strong resistance zone at 1.5683, 06 June high and 1.5700, 200 day MA, clearance of which is seen as a trigger for resumption of larger uptrend that commenced from 1.5000 **** and could extend to 1.5774, Fib 100% expansion. Near-term technicals are positive an support further advance, however, possible hesitation ahead of 1.5700 barrier, cannot be ruled out, as 4h indicators are entering overbought territory. Previous consolidation to at 1.5600, offers initial support, while any stronger pullback should be contained above 1.55 area, to keep bulls intact.

The pair trades in a near-term corrective mode, followed to yesterday’s sharp fall that nearly fully retraced 94.97 / 99.27 rally on a slide to 95.58. The rally is seen as corrective, as near-term studies remain negative, with significant resistance at 97.42, 50% of 99.27/95.58 fall, reinforced by 55 day EMA, coming in focus. Lack of momentum sees risk of recovery stall and fresh weakness, for test of series of important supports, 95.58, 95.39, daily cloud **** and key 94.97, break of which to resume bears off 103.72 peak. On the upside, key near-term barrier lies at 99.27 and only break here would improve short-term structure and allow for stronger corrective action.

The pair extends correction off yesterday’s fresh 3-years low at 0.9324, as recovery accelerated on regain of important 0.9500 barrier, 50% retracement of 0.9673/0.9324 fall. Monday’s gap has been filled that sees potential for further recovery. Positive hourly studies support the notion. However, larger picture bears remain in play, with significant barriers at 0.9672. 06 Jun high and 0.9790, 03 Jun high, break of which to signal stronger corrective action and sideline bears. Otherwise, scenario of lower top and fresh weakness would be likely, as the price cracked important, multi-year congestion floor at 0.9400/0.9380.

The Euro continues to trend higher and hits levels close to 1.3400 barrier, on fresh acceleration at European opening. Bulls remain unobstructed and clearance of the latter to open next target and double Fibonacci level at 1.3482/88, 76.4% retracement of 1.3710/1.2744 descend and 138.2% expansion of the upleg from 1.2795. Corrective pullback may interrupt the rally, as near-term indicators are entering overbought zone, with immediate support at 1.3340, 23.6% of 1.3176/1.3389 / 20 day EMA and more significant 1.3305, previous high of 06 Jun / 55 day EMA, while violation of yesterday’s low at 1.3264, near 50% retracement, would signal deeper reversal and put bulls on hold.

Cable maintains positive near-term tone, with price action being congested at psychological / 200 day MA 1.5700 barrier. Hourly studies are losing traction, while bearish MACD/RSI divergence on 4h chart increases risk of pause in recent rally, in favor of further consolidative/corrective action towards initial support at 1.5632, yesterday’s low / 55 day EMA and 1.5620, Fib 38.2% of 1.5493/1.5700, where dips should be ideally contained. Otherwise, penetration through 1.5600, 50% retracement, would signal stronger correction towards key near term support and higher platform at 1.5500.

The pair remains under strong pressure, as fresh bearish acceleration was triggered on yesterday’s upside rejection at 97.00. The price surged through Ichimoku cloud **** at 95.39 and previous low at 94.97 and also broke below 94.00 support, in a free-fall towards the next significant support and near-term targets at 92.56, 02 Apr low. Daily close below the cloud **** is to confirm bearish structure, as studies on lower and larger timeframes are negative. Minor corrective rallies may interrupt bears, as studies are entering oversold territory, with previous lows at 95.00 zone, offering initial resistance.

Near-term correction off fresh 3-years low at 0.9324, was capped at 0.9562 and fresh slide to 0.9430, weakened hourly structure. The pair remains in a near-term corrective mode, but lack strength for more significant recovery, as technical of the larger timeframes are negative and 4h 55 day EMA limits the upside for now. As overall bears remain in play, downside risk will persist as long as important barriers at 0.9672 and 0.9790 stay intact. Only break above the latter would sideline bears and allow for stronger correction.

The Euro trades in a near-term consolidative mode, with price action moving in a triangular-shape consolidation. Hourly studies are negatively aligned and keep the downside risk towards triangle support at 1.33 zone, also Fib 38.2% of 1.3176/1.3389 upleg. Break here would signal further correction and open Fibonacci 50%/61.8% supports at 1.3283/1.3257. Such scenario is also supported by descending 4h indicators and bearish divergence that may put near-term bulls on hold, once 1.3300 and range floor at 1.3277 is lost. Overall bulls, however, remain in play and see resumption of larger uptrend from 1.2800 higher ****, towards 1.3400 an double Fibonacci resistances at 1.3480 zone, once the correction is completed.

Near-term bulls remain in play, as the pair bounced off last Friday’s correction low at 1.5615 and price approached recent peak at 1.5736. Positive hourly studies are supportive for bullish resumption that requires clear break above 1.5736, however, presence of 4h RSI / MACD bearish divergence, requires caution, as last Friday’s hanging man candle suggests hesitation under 1.5736 high. Initial signal of reversal will be seen on a slide below 1.5615/00 support, however, confirmation would require break below 55 day EMA at 1.5560, to focus higher platform at 1.5500.

The pair holds near-term consolidative mode, trading above fresh low at 93.97/78. The price remains under pressure, despite overnight’s bounce, as near-term studies are negative and see the current action limited. With 20 day EMA capping at 95.30, initial resistance, consolidation range top at 95.80 stays intact for now. Break here and psychological 96.00 barrier, would signal stronger correction, however, not much of recovery to be expected while the price holds below 99.00 breakpoint zone.

The pair remains in a near-term corrective phase and maintain positive tone, as the price consolidates within 0.9556/0.9664 range. With near-term technicals being positively aligned and price action underpinned by 20/55 day EMA’s bullish crossover, the upside remains favored for now, however, break above recent highs and congestion tops at 0.9664/72 is required to resume corrective rally off 0.9324 and open way towards key barrier at 0.9790. Alternative scenario sees rejection under 0.9664, as larger picture bars remain in play, with break below .9556, near-term range floor / 55 day EMA, to increase risk of double-top formation and fresh weakness.