Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro trades in a consolidative mode, off fresh low at 1.2805, posted last Friday and ended Monday’s trading in a positive tone. Recovery rally is so far capped at 1.2880 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3016/1.2805 descend / hourly linear regression channel upper line. Hourly studies are positively aligned and see potential for stronger correction above 1.2911, 50% retracement and pivotal 1.2930 zone, 61.8% / 03/07 low; 04/07 high. However, prevailing negative tone on 4-hour chart, sees the recovery limited for now. On the downside, 1.2800 zone offers initial support and guards key 1.2750 double-bottom and annual low.

Res: 1.2911; 1.2935; 1.2966; 1.3000

Sup: 1.2845; 1.2805; 1.2795; 1.2780

Res: 1.5000; 1.5027; 1.5080; 1.5100

Sup: 1.4919; 1.4871; 1.4856; 1.4830

Dollar/yen consolidates gains that peaked at 101.52, with pullback being so far contained 100.80 zone, daily cloud top / hourly 55 DMA. Overall positive tone keeps the upside in focus, with any further easing, expected to hold above psychological 100 support, to keep bulls intact. Upside targets remain at 101.52 and 102.00/56.

Res: 101.52; 101.79; 102.00; 102.56

Sup: 100.84; 100.65; 100.40; 100.00

The pair remains within 0.9035/0.9179 consolidative range, as bears found ground at 0.9035 and price bounces. As recovery rally from 0.9035 extends above 0.9100 barrier, scope is seen for possible test of key short-term hurdle at 0.9179. Break here is required to confirm double-bottom formation and to spark stronger recovery above 0.9200. Positive hourly studies, with 4-hour indicators in heading north, support the notion. Downside should stay protected at 0.9100, to keep freshly established bulls in play.

Res: 0.9179; 0.9200; 0.9225; 0.9252

Sup: 0.9100; 0.9081; 0.9035; 0.9000

The Euro ended Tuesday’s trading in red after breaking below 1.2795 support and posting fresh low at 1.2754, where weekly Ichimoku cloud **** contained dips, just ahead of key 1.2750/44 support. Eventual push below the latter that also marks multi-month platform, is required to complete weekly Head and Shoulders pattern that would trigger more significant losses, with round figure 1.2700 support and 1.2660, November 2012 low, seen as next targets. Consolidative actions may precede fresh weakness, as technical hold firm bearish tone, with 1.2800/50 zone expected to cap. Only lift above 1.29 barrier would ease immediate bear pressure.

Res: 1.2800; 1.2850; 1.2880; 1.2900

Sup: 1.2777; 1.2754; 1.2744; 1.2700

Res: 1.5910; 1.4980; 1.5000; 1.5057

Sup: 1.4919; 1.4871; 1.4856; 1.4830

Sort-term structure weakened, as the price broke below 100.75, two-day consolidation range and cracked the next support at 100.40, 50% retracement of 99.25/101.52 upleg. Negative hourly studies keep the downside in focus, however, reversal above 100.00 support, would keep broader bulls in play for fresh attempt higher. Conversely, loss of 100 handle is expected to sideline bulls and allow for stronger correction.

Res: 100.75; 101.00; 101.29; 101.52

Sup: 100.28; 100.00; 99.48; 99.25

The pair extended short-term recovery rally from 0.9035 **** after clearing previous strong barrier at 0.9179. Short-term price action gets congested at 0.9200 barrier, as the price fails to break higher and enters consolidative mode. Short-term bulls would remain intact while range bottom at 0.9130 zone holds and would look for further recovery towards 0.9250, 01/07 high and 0.9300, 50% of 0.9555/0.9035.

Res: 0.9225; 0.9252; 0.9270; 0.9343

Sup: 0.9130; 0.9100; 0.9081; 0.9035

The Euro ended week in which the pair posted fresh 3-month low at 1.2754 and 3–week high at 1.3205. Price closed at 1.3069, 200DMA and near 50% retracement of entire 1.3414/1.2754 downleg, with downside being protected at 1.3000, psychological support and higher platform. Two day consolidation moves in a narrow range, following pullback from 1.3205 high, with hourly studies holding neutral tone. From the other side, positive 4-hour structure and formation on bullish pennant, suggests that bulls are in play and look for renewed attempt higher. Sustained break above 1.3100 is required to confirm and open key short-term barrier at 1.3205. Conversely, violation of 1.3000 **** and 1.2980, 50% retracement of 1.2754/1.3205 recovery rally, would soften the tone and increase downside risk.

Res: 1.3121; 1.3146, 1.3205; 1.3260

Sup: 1.3000; 1.2980; 1.2926; 1.2900

Cable consolidates past week’s rally that commenced at 1.4812, fresh 3-year low and peaked at 1.5220, retracing over 38.2% of 1.5751/1.4812 descends. The price found **** at 1.5070/60 zone, reinforced by 4-hour 55DMA, but weak hourly studies keep the downside at risk. However, 4-hour structure remains positive, with price holding above 1.5060, would keep hopes of fresh strength above 1.5200/20 in play, for resumption of short-term recovery towards key 1.5282/1.5303 barriers.

Res: 1.5130; 1.5170; 1.5200; 1.5220

Sup: 1.5074; 1.5060; 1.5000; 1.4979

The pair trades in two-day consolidative range, off fresh low at 98.22, posted on 11/07, with 99.68 high being reached so far. Series of higher lows from 98.22, suggest further recovery, with notion being supported by Friday’s inside day candle and positively aligned hourly studies. Regain of minimum 100 level is required to confirm recovery, otherwise, fresh weakness would be triggered by still weak 4-hour studies and re-focus 98.22 support.

Res: 99.68; 99.87; 100.00; 100.62

Sup: 99.00; 98.88; 98.56; 98.22

The Aussie remains under pressure, as last Friday’s fresh weakness dented psychological 0.9000 support and probed levels last time traded in Sep 2010. Weekly close above 0.9000 handle, sees potential for limited corrective action, as technicals turned negative, following last week’s recovery rejection at 0.93 zone and subsequent fall, signaling resumption of larger downtrend. Initial resistance lay at 0.9115/50, Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% of Thu/Fri fall from 0.9304, with key barrier at 0.9200, expected to cap stronger rallies. Fresh weakness below 0.9000, would open 0.8900, round figure support and 0.8888, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the downwave from 1.0581.

Res: 0.9115; 0.9150; 0.9185; 0.9200

Sup: 0.9054; 0.9037; 0.8997; 0.8950

The Euro trades in a prolonged consolidation, holding in a sideways mode, with price action being entrenched within 1.3000/80 range. Hourly studies are still neutral, as the price attempts through the range tops, while 4-hour technicals maintain bullish tone and see scope for fresh strength that needs to clear initial barriers at 1.3121/45, to open key resistance at 1.3205. Double hanging man candle on the daily chart, however, keeps the risk of fresh weakness, with slide below key support levels at 1.3000/1.2980 that keep the downside protected for now, required to bring bears in play.

Res: 1.3100; 1.3121; 1.3145, 1.3205

Sup: 1.3050; 1.3000; 1.2980; 1.2926

Res: 1.5170; 1.5192; 1.5200; 1.5220

Sup: 1.5089; 1.5060; 1.5000; 1.4979

The pair extended short-term recovery off 98.22 low, as the price initially broke above 99.68, consolidation range top and more important psychological 100 barrier. Fresh rally reached 100.47 so far, with corrective pullback being contained at 99.68, previous low / 55DMA. Positively aligned hourly studies keep the upside favored, with sustained break above 100 hurdle, expected to resume recovery and open key 101.52 barrier, 08/07 high. Conversely, downside risk would increase on a violation of initial 99.68 support, while loss of 99.00 handle will be bearish and shift focus towards 98.22 low.

Res: 100.00; 100.47; 100.62; 101.00

Sup: 99.68; 99.34; 99.00; 98.87

The Aussie remains extends recovery rally from 0.8997 low, as break above 0.9115 congestion top triggered fresh strength to important 0.9200 resistance zone. Freshly established bulls on hourly chart are supportive for further recovery, with 4-hour chart indicators heading north and building up bullish momentum. However, clear break above 0.9200 hurdle is seen as minimum requirement to open way towards key barriers at 0.9304 and 0.9343, 11/07 high and 26/27/07 tops / near 50% of 0.9664/0.8997 descend. Only break above the latter would be signaling more significant corrective action, as larger picture bears remain fully in play.

Res: 0.9200; 0.9232; 0.9252; 0.9304

Sup: 0.9145; 0.9115; 0.9085; 0.9034

Bulls came back to play after the price broke above congestion tops at 1.3080. Fresh strength through initial barriers at 1.3121/45, opens way towards 1.3205, 11/07 peak, setting scope for further retracement of 1.3414/1.2754 downleg. Break above 1.3205 is required to open 1.3258, next target, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement and 21/06 high, seen as next target. Positive tone on lower timeframes studies and daily close above 200DMA, supports the notion, while previous resistances at 1.3100/1.3080 offer immediate support, while key support and breakpoint lies at 1.3000 higher platform.

Res: 1.3173; 1.3205; 1.3258; 1.3300

Sup: 1.3125; 1.3100; 1.3080; 1.3050

The price bounced from short-term consolidation floor and cracked the upper boundary at 1.5140 zone, signaling possible extension higher and retest of key short-term hurdle at 1.5220. However, lack of momentum for final push higher, with hourly studies being overall neutral, would question short-term bulls. Failure to regain 1.5200/20 barriers, would signal prolonged sideways trading. Initial support at 1.5100 holds for now, while more downside risk would be seen on violation of range floor at 1.5030 zone.

Res: 1.5142; 1.5167; 1.5192; 1.5220

Sup: 1.5100; 1.5075; 1.5056; 1.5043

The pair remains under pressure, following Monday’s rejection at 100.47 and subsequent reversal that dented 99.00 support. Further extension of downmove from 100.47 would threaten 98.22, 11/07 low and psychological 98.00 support, reinforced by 100DMA, as short-term indicators hold in the negative territory and keep the downside favored. Corrective rallies are expected to stay under 100.47 high.

Res: 99.53; 100.00; 100.47; 100.62

Sup: 99.00; 98.88; 98.56; 98.22

The pair returned to strength and extended short-term recovery rally from 0.8997 low, with eventual break above 0.9200 barrier, seeing scope for further gains and full retracement of 0.9304/0.8997 downleg. Positive short-term technicals support the notion, however, consolidative/corrective action on overbought hourly studies, may delay bulls, with dips to be ideally contained at 0.9160 zone, 38.2% retracement of 0.8997/0.9259 rally / 20/55DMA bullish crossover. Key upside barriers lay at 0.9304/43 and break here is required to spark stronger correction and sideline broader bars.

Res: 0.9237; 0.9259; 0.9304; 0.9343

Sup: 0.9200; 0.9160; 0.9120; 0.9085

Positive sentiment, established on a break above 1.3070/1.3100 barriers, 200DMA / daily Ichimoku cloud top is fading, as the price slides again below 1.3100 handle. The rally stalled at 1.3175 zone, lacking momentum for final push to 1.3205 high, break of which to resume rally from 1.2754. Studies are mixed, with 4-hour chart structure remaining positive, while hourly studies weakened, as the price probes below 1.3100 support. Losing 1.3100/1.3070 support zone would further weaken the structure and open way towards key support and higher platform at 1.3000.

Res: 1.3158; 1.3176; 1.3205; 1.3258

Sup: 1.3080; 1.3050; 1.3000, 1.2980

Res: 1.5200; 1.5242; 1.5266; 1.5304

Sup: 1.5152; 1.5100; 1.5075; 1.5043

The pair regained strength and broke above Wednesday’s congestion and triangle resistance at 99.80 zone. Fresh gains through psychological 100 barrier, bring bulls in play for retest of key 100.47 resistance, break of which to resume short-term rally from 98.22 low. Short-term technicals are supportive for further gains, with initial support at 99.50, ahead of bull trendline at 99.15 and 99.00/98.88, below which bears would take control.

Res: 100.47; 100.62; 101.00; 101.29

Sup: 99.90; 99.50; 99.15; 99.00

The pair broke below yesterday’s range floor at 0.9190, weakening the near-term structure after upside rejection on approach to strong 0.9304 barrier. Weak hourly studies see potential for further corrective easing off yesterday’s 0.9290 high, with 0.9140, 50% retracement of 0.8997/0.9290, seen as immediate target. Larger picture range, however, remains intact, with positive 4-hour structure still seeing scope for attempt at 0.9304, range top, break of which would trigger stronger corrective action and open 0.9343/0.9400. Conversely, loss of 0.9140/00 supports, would open 0.9000 zone for retest.

Res: 0.9200; 0.9250; 0.9290; 0.9304

Sup: 0.9140; 0.9100; 0.9085; 0.9034