Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro slumped close to 1.34 support, erasing a good part of last week’s gains and over 50% of entire rally from 1.3294 to 1.3577. Fresh pressure on the single currency, triggered by fundamentals, turned near-term Technical outlook negative. Increased risk of lower top at 1.3577 is seen, as the price approached 1.3400, psychological support / 61.8% of 1.3294/1.3577 upleg. Break here to open way towards 1.3360, daily cloud **** and key supports at 1.33 zone, 07/11 low / 50% retracement of larger 1.2754/1.3831 rally. Narrow consolidation above 1.34 handle is under way, with oversold hourly studies suggesting a break in the recent weakness. The near-term action is for now limited by former platform at 1.3430, with broken bull-trendline off 1.3294 offering next resistance at 1.3460, also near 38.2% of 1.3577/1.3412 / 55DMA at 1.3575. Any stretch higher should be ideally capped at 1.35 zone, 50% retracement and double bearish 10/55 and 20/55DMA’s crossover.

Res: 1.3430; 1.3460; 1.3475; 1.3500

Sup: 1.3412; 1.3400; 1.3360; 1.3294

Cable came under pressure after failure to regain psychological 1.62 barrier and subsequent pullback broke below 1.61 handle, extending losses to 1.6071, 4-hour 55DMA so far. Negative hourly structure keeps the downside at risk, as 4-hour studies are losing momentum that may trigger further weakness, as long as the price holds below 1.61 resistance zone and 10/55; 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover that offers initial and solid resistance. Further easing would face immediate support at 1.6058/53, 19/11 low / 38.2% retracement of 1.5853/1.6177 ascend / daily Kijun-sen line, also near-term consolidation floor, loss of which will be bearish. Conversely, lift above 1.61 handle, would open the upper boundary of near-term congestion and signal possible resumption of the uptrend from 1.5853.

Res: 1.6110; 1.6147; 1.617; 1.6200

Sup: 1.6071; 1.6053; 1.6015; 1.6000

The pair returned to strength and break above near-term consolidation, with fresh extension higher, clearing key barrier at 100.60. The price aims towards psychological 101.00 barrier, with another key hurdle at 101.52, 08/07 peak, expected to come in focus, once 101 is cleared. Near-term studies remain bullish and favor further upside, however, overbought hourly conditions warn of possible hesitation on approach to 101 barrier. Previous highs at 100.60/42, offers immediate supports, while further corrective easing should ideally hold above 100.00/99.80 levels, to keep bulls intact.

Res: 101.00; 101.37; 101.52; 102.00

Sup: 100.60; 100.42; 100.24; 100.00

The pair came under pressure and accelerated losses from 0.9446, where gains were capped by daily 20DMA a double top formed. Fresh weakness that broke below psychological 0.9300 support, threatens full retracement of 0.9269/0.9446 corrective rally, as the price came tick away from this support, with break lower to spark fresh extension of larger downmove from 0.9755, 23/10 peak, towards 0.9221, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8891/0.9755 and psychological 0.9200 support. However, oversold hourly studies may trigger consolidative/corrective action. Previous support at 0.9300, offers immediate resistance, ahead of 0.9350, 19/11 low, with stronger corrective rallies to be limited under 0.9400, psychological barrier / 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover.

Res: 0.9300; 0.9333; 0.9350; 0.9400

Sup: 0.9269; 0.9221; 0.9200; 0.9187

The Euro steadies above 1.35, closing for the week at 1.3555. The rally nearly fully retraced 1.3577/1.3398 corrective pullback, on a session high at 1.3559, with positive near-term technicals being supportive for eventual push through 1.3577, 20/11 high, break of which to resume near-term recovery rally from 1.3294, 07/11 low that so far retraced over 50% of 1.3831/1.3294 descend. On the other side, daily bulls are still sidelined and caution is required in case of stall under 1.3577, as the price struggles at broken bull trendline off 1.2754, currently at 1.3550. Initial support at 1.3500 should ideally hold corrective dips, while extension lower and violation of 1.3460, higher low / 61.8% of 1.3398/1.3559, would risk return to key near-term support at 1.3398, 21/11 low.

Res: 1.3559; 1.3577; 1.3600; 1.3645

Sup: 1.3533; 1.3500; 1.3461; 1.3444

Cable continues to trend higher and extends near-term rally from 1.5853, 12/11 low, with key barriers at 1.6254/59 coming in focus, as the price sustained break above 1.6200 barrier and closed for the week at 1.6220. Bullish tone dominates on short-term studies, however, hesitation on approach to important barrier at 1.6259 that also marks multi-month range top, cannot be ruled out. The notion is supported by extended near-term conditions. Corrective dips should be ideally contained above 1.61 handle to keep the structure intact, with break above 1.6259 peak to open fresh bull-phase and focus psychological 1.6300 barrier initially, with full retracement of 1.6380/1.4812, 2012/2013 bear-phase, seen on extension to 1.6380, 02/01 2013 peak.

Res: 1.6239; 1.6254; 1.6259; 1.6300

Sup: 1.6200; 1.6180; 1.6150; 1.6107

The pair remains well supported and rallies higher, following positive weekly close and clearance of important barrier at 101.52, 08/07 peak. The price approaches psychological 102.00 barrier, en-route towards 102.48/52, 28/29 / 05 peaks, with key short-term resistance at 103.72, 22/05 annual high, expected to come in near-term focus. Technicals remain positive and favor further upside, with corrective pullback on overbought conditions, expected to interrupt rally. Immediate supports lay at 101.60/34, ahead of psychological 101.00 support and higher platform that offers solid support, reinforced by 4-hour 20DMA.

Res: 102.00; 102.50; 103.00; 103.29

Sup: 101.60; 101.34; 101.00; 100.60

The pair remains under pressure, as acceleration from 0.9446 double-top, below 0.9220/00 support zone, 61.8% retracement of 0.8991/0.9755 ascend / round figure support, approaches psychological support and Fibonacci 76.4% of 0.8891/0.9755 upleg at 0.9100. Negative sentiment continues to drive the price lower, as technicals on lower and larger timeframes maintain negative tone and see scope for full retracement of 0.8891/0.9755 upleg. Oversold near-term conditions, however, may delay immediate bears. Corrective rallies to find immediate resistance at 0.9187, session high and psychological 0.9200 level, ahead of strong 0.9270 resistance, 12/14/ 11 platform, expected to ideally limit corrective rallies.

Res: 0.9187; 0.9200; 0.9248; 0.9270

Sup: 0.9119; 0.9095; 0.9068; 0.9036

The Euro returns to strength and regains levels above 1.35 handle, following yesterday’s pullback from 1.3559 to 1.3489, where 4-hour 55DMA contained dip. The price consolidated near session high at 1.3540, as near-term bulls are gaining traction after hourly indicators returned to positive territory. Fresh extension higher faces immediate resistance at 1.3577, 20/11 recovery peak, with break here to resume recovery off 1.3294 and open 1.3600, round figure resistance and 1.3626, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3831/1.3294 descend. However, daily studies maintain neutral/negative tone and require caution in case of price’s failure to clear 1.3577/1.3600 hurdles. Increased downside risk would be seen on a slide below 1.3500/1.3489, with extension below 1.3460, 22/11 higher low / 61.8% retracement of 1.3398/1.3559, to signal double-top formation.

Res: 1.3577; 1.3600; 1.3626; 1.3645

Sup: 1.3510; 1.3489; 1.3461; 1.3444

Cable’s near-term price action came under pressure after strong rally stalled on approach to critical barriers at 1.6254/59 and subsequent pullback to 1.6132 retraced 61.8% of 1.6071/1.6239 upleg. Formation of bearish reversal pattern increases downside risk, with extension and close below 1.61 handle, required to confirm. Hourly studies are negative, while larger picture remain bullish that keeps the upside targets in near-term focus, with regain of psychological 1.62 barrier, seen as a signal for renewed attempt higher. Otherwise, slide below 1.61 and more significant 1.6071, 21/11 higher low / daily cloud top, would shift near-term focus lower and confirm further range trading.

Res: 1.6200; 1.6215; 1.6239; 1.6259

Sup: 1.6144; 1.6132; 1.6107; 1.6071

The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, after posting fresh high at101.90 yesterday. Initial support at 101.30, Fibonacci 23.6% of 99.56/101.90, so far contained, however, weak hourly and 4-hour indicators descending from overbought territory, suggest that correction lower may extend. Next strong support lay at 101.00, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2%, ahead of 100.73, 50% and 100.60, previous peak, where stronger pullback should find support. Resumption of the uptrend through 102.00, opens 102.48/52, 28/29 / 05 peaks next, ahead of 103.10, Fibonacci 161.8% projection and key barrier at 103.72, 22/05 yearly high.

Res: 101.70; 102.00; 102.50; 103.00

Sup: 101.35; 101.00; 100.60; 100.42

The pair enters near-term consolidative phase after posting fresh low at 0.9119, with initial 0.9200 resistance capping the upside for now. Improved hourly structure sees scope for further recovery, with additional support given from 4-hour indicators that emerge from oversold zone. Extension above 0.9200 opens 0.9244, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9446/0.9119, ahead of strong 0.9270/80 zone, previous lower platform and 50% retracement, where rallies should be limited. Only sustained break above 0.9300 barrier would sideline immediate bears. Overall bears, however, remain in play and are expected to resume larger downmove once corrective phase is completed, with 0.9100 seen as immediate support, ahead of key short-term support and breakpoint at 0.8891, 30/08 low.

Res: 0.9200; 0.9248; 0.9270; 0.9300

Sup: 0.9177; 0.9141; 0.9119; 0.9095

The Euro maintains positive sentiment, as clearance and daily close above previous high at 1.3577, probed levels above psychological 1.3600 barrier. Subsequent consolidation was contained by 55DMA at 1.3560, with further easing on weak hourly studies, allowed towards 1.3530/00, Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% retracement of 1.3398/1.3611 upleg, before bulls return to play. Positive scenario is supported by bullish 4-hour studies, as well as daily indicators breaking above the midlines that favor further upside in the near-term. Immediate target lies at 1.3626, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3831/1.3294 descend, ahead of 1.3645, Fibonacci 138.2% projection / previous peak of 03/10 and 1.3710, 02/01 peak / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement. Alternative scenario see loss of 1.35 handle to weaken near-term structure and trigger stronger pullback towards 1.3450, 50% retracement of larger 1.3294/1.3611 ascend and 1.3398, 21/11 higher low, in extension.

Res: 1.3600; 1.3611; 1.3626; 1.3645

Sup: 1.3557; 1.3520; 1.3500; 1.3489

Cable eventually broke above two-month congestion top at 1.6259, with daily close above here, confirming bullish resumption of larger uptrend from 1.4812 that was delayed by 1.6259/1.5853 consolidation. Break above the next hurdle at 1.6300, with 1.6329 seen so far, sees scope for final push towards key med-term resistance at 1.6380, 02/01 annual peak, as completion of 1.6380/1.4812 bear-phase, would look for fresh extension higher, as the price cracked 1.6292, bear-trendline drawn off 1.7041, 2009 high. Near-term technicals maintain positive tone, however, overextended conditions suggest hesitation on approach to key hurdle at 1.6380. Previous high at 1.6259/54 offer solid support, ahead of psychological 1.6200 support and 1.6135 higher platform.

Res: 1.6329; 1.6380; 1.6400; 1.6453

Sup: 1.6255; 1.6239; 1.6200; 1.6135

The pair remains steady and posts fresh highs above 102.00 level that now offers initial support. Overbought near-term conditions, see corrective action as likely near-term scenario, before bulls resume larger uptrend. Psychological 103.00 barrier and annual peak at 103.82, remain as near-term targets. However, caution is required, as daily studies enter overbought territory. Corrective extension below initial 102 support zone, session low / 25/11 previous high, to open more significant 101 zone higher platform, loss of which would sideline near-term bulls.

Res: 102.26; 102.50; 103.00; 103.50

Sup: 102.00; 101.80; 101.13; 101.00

The pair posted fresh low at 0.9064 yesterday, after losing psychological / Fibonacci 0.9100 support, with subsequent bounce above the latter, being triggered by oversold conditions. Extension to 0.9139 cracked initial resistance and lower platform at 0.9133, with hourly studies turning positive and completion of hourly cup and holder pattern, suggesting further recovery, with the notion being supported by bullish divergence on lower timeframes. Sustained break above 0.9139, where 4-hour 20DMA capped for now, is required to open more significant 0.9200 resistance zone, 26/11 upside rejection and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9446/0.9064 / 55DMA. Only break here to signal stronger corrective action and sideline bulls. Conversely, failure under 0.9200 barrier would risk formation of lower top and fresh bears, with break below 0.9064 to open psychological 0.9000 support.

Res: 0.9139; 0.9177; 0.9200; 0.9255

Sup: 0.9116; 0.9100; 0.9064; 0.9036

The Euro consolidates above fresh lows at 1.3520, following sharp fall from 1.36 zone, where the larger rally stalled. Formation of hourly H&S pattern sees more downside risk, with further acceleration expected on a break below strong support at 1.3500, round figure support / daily 20DMA / Tenkan-sen line. Losses below 1.35 handle to open another strong support at1.3460 zone, 50% retracement of 1.3294/1.3620 / daily cloud ****, with higher low at 1.34 seen in extension. Negative near-term technicals support the scenario, with initial resistance at 1.3559, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3614/1.3523 fall being cracked for extension towards 1.3579, yesterday’s higher platform and 61.8% retracement, regain of which to sideline immediate downside risk and shift focus towards upside targets at 1.3600/20.

Res: 1.3579; 1.3600; 1.3620; 1.3626

Sup: 1.3523; 1.3500; 1.3457; 1.3420

Cable dipped about hundred pips on a corrective pullback from yesterday’s fresh high at 1.6441 and found temporary footstep at 1.6340, 4-hour 20DMA where near-term basing attempt is seen. Positive 4-hour studies see the upside in focus, with regain of 1.6400 handle requested to confirm **** formation. Bulls may be delayed for further consolidation, as hourly studies are weak, however, further dips should not exceed psychological 1.6300 support, near 50% retracement of 1.6137/1.6441 upleg and previous congestion tops at 1.6360 zone, in order to keep larger bulls intact. Break above 1.6441 to open psychological 1.6500 barrier next.

Res: 1.6400; 1.6441; 1.6500; 1.6550

Sup: 1.6340; 1.6325; 1.6300; 1.6256

The pair maintains positive tone, as fresh extension of the upleg from 101.13 cracked psychological 103.00 barrier and posted new high at 103.36, en-route towards key resistance and short-term target at 103.72, 103.72, 22/05 yearly high. Near-term studies are bullish, but overbought conditions suggest possible hesitation on approach to 103.72. Initial supports lay at 102.61, previous high and 102.00, former consolidation floor, below which, bulls may be put on hold for deeper corrective pullback towards 101 zone.

Res: 103.36; 103.50; 103.72; 104.00

Sup: 102.82; 102.61; 102.21; 102.10

The pair came under increased pressure after recovery rally stalled ahead of important 0.9200 barrier and subsequent pullback through 0.9100 support, fully retraced 0.9054/0.9167 corrective rally. Previous low at 0.9054 so far contained weakness, with basing attempt being in play, despite negative near-term technicals, as RSI / MACD bullish divergence builds up on 4-hour chart. However, to confirm such scenario and avert downside risk towards psychological 0.9000 support, bounce through initial barrier at 0.9100 and regain of 0.9167/0.9200 hurdles, is required.

Res: 0.9100; 0.9131; 0.9148; 0.9167

Sup: 0.9064; 0.9054; 0.9000; 0.8950

The Euro’s near-term price action remains capped at 1.36 zone, following renewed attempt higher that was rejected at 1.3614. Lack of strength to sustain break above 1.36 barrier, signals further consolidation, as the downside is for now protected above 1.35 support, where the price left higher **** at 1.3520. Neutral 4-hour studies support the notion, as hourly indicators still hold above the midlines, with threat of further easing, seen on a violation of 1.3520/00 support zone, where daily 20DMA and Tenkan-sen reinforce support that also marks Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3294/1.3620 upleg. Break lower to expose mid-point of entire rally at 1.3457 and more significant 1.3419, 61.8% retracement and 1.3398, 21/11 higher low, seen in extension. Alternatively, clear break above 1.3600/20 hurdles is required to resume bulls towards 1.3650, daily cloud top, 1.3679, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 1.3398 and 1.3710, 01/02 previous peak.

Res: 1.3596; 1.3620; 1.3626; 1.3650

Sup: 1.3560; 1.3545; 1.3523; 1.3500

Cable trades in near-term consolidative mode, after pullback from fresh high at 1.6441 was contained by 4-hour 20DMA at 1.6340. Overall positive structure sees further upside as favored, however, further consolidation above 1.6340 cannot be ruled out, before fresh attempt higher, with break above 1.6441, to open 1.6500 next. Increased downside risk will be seen on break below 1.6340 higher **** and 1.6300 support, near 50% retracement of 1.6137/1.6441/ 4-hour 55DMA, as well as previous congestion tops at 1.6260 zone, loss of which to confirm stronger correction.

Res: 1.6400; 1.6435; 1.6441; 1.6500

Sup: 1.6340; 1.6325; 1.6300; 1.6289

The price is gaining traction after quick pullback from fresh high at 103.36 found ground at 102 zone, where 4-hour 55DMA contained dips and subsequent bounce heading towards psychological 103 barrier. Hourly indicators are at their midlines, while 4-hour structure remains positive that supports fresh attempt at 103.00/36, above which to resume rally towards key resistance and short-term target at 103.72, 22/05 yearly high.

Res: 103.00; 103.36; 103.50; 103.72

Sup: 102.21; 101.96; 101.34; 101.13

The pair remains under increased pressure after yesterday recovery attempt stalled at 0.9145 and two-legged sharp fall approaches next downside target and psychological support at 0.9000. Completion of near-term consolidative phase above 0.9054 platform, triggered fresh leg lower, with initial support at 0.9000 and key short-term supports at 0.8891/46, expected to come in focus once 0.9000 is lost. Overextended hourly studies, however, may delay bears and signal hesitation ahead of 0.9000 handle, with rallies expected solid barriers at 0.9050/70 zone, before fresh push lower.

Res: 0.9054; 0.9071; 0.9100; 0.9131

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8950; 0.8900; 0.8891