The Euro corrects yesterday’s fresh losses that probed below 1.36 handle and so far found support at 1.3570, just ahead of trendline support at 1.3550. Bounce to 1.3650 was capped by 4-hour 20DMA, as the price attempts to stabilize above 1.36 support. Slight positive tone exists on hourly chart, with 4-hour indicators starting to reverse that may be supportive for further recovery action. Bears are on stand-by on lower ADX timeframes, with clearance of initial barriers at 1.3650, yesterday’s high and 1.3664/75, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3817/1.3570 downleg / 02/01 lower high, seen as minimum requirement to spark further recovery. Strong barrier at 1.3720, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover and broken bull trendline off 1.3294 low, is seen capping upside attempts for now, with fresh bears expected to take control once corrective action is completed. The notion is supported by reversal pattern developed on daily chart, with break below 1.3570, expected to open 1.3525 higher platform / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, reinforced by daily 100DMA. Conversely, sustained break above 1.3720 would neutralize bears and re-focus upper targets at 1.38 zone.

Res: 1.3650; 1.3670; 1.3700; 1.3720

Sup: 1.3600; 1.3570; 1.3525; 1.3500

Cable maintains negative near-term tone off fresh high at 1.6602, as fresh extension of pullback from here, reached 1.6336 so far, retracing between 61.8% and 76.4% of 1.6212/1.6602 upleg. With corrective bounce being capped for now at 1.6432 by 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover of 4-hour chart, more downside risk could be seen in the near-term, as 4-hour technicals are negative. On hourly chart, however, indicators turned neutral, as the price consolidates, but price action being capped by descending 55DMA. Preferred scenario sees fresh attempt lower, with 1.6336 seen as initial support, ahead of 1.63 zone, higher platform and 76.4% retracement. To avert immediate downside risk, regain of minimum 1.6473, 03/01 lower top / 50% retracement of 1.6602/1.6336 fall, is required.

Res: 1.6400; 1.6434; 1.6473; 1.6500

Sup: 1.6380; 1.6336; 1.6300; 1.6254

The pair trades in near-term corrective mode off fresh highs at 105.40, where double-top was formed. Fresh extension below 104 zone, where the pair previously found footstep, also marking 38.2% retracement of 101.60/105.43 upleg and bull trendline off 101.60, signals further weakness. The notion is supported by negative near-term technicals, with corrective bounce off fresh low at 103.90, so far being capped by bear-trendline off 105.43 peak at 104.60. This is seen as ideal lower top fort fresh attempt lower, with break below 103.90, expected to open 103.50, 50% retracement of 101.60/105.43 and 103.06, Fibonacci 61.8%, in extension. Conversely, extended corrective rally above 104.60, would delay bears, however, only break above 105 barrier is required to neutralize.

Res: 104.60; 104.83; 104.94; 105.43

Sup: 104.17; 103.90; 103.52; 103.06

The pair lost traction after upside rejection at 0.9000 barrier extended pullback below initial support and consolidation floor at 0.8935, with dips coming close to psychological 0.8900 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8842/0.9003 upleg. Hourly studies are negative, with 4-hour price action losing momentum that keeps the downside vulnerable for now. Loss of 0.8900 handle to confirm bears in play for retest of downside targets at 0.8842 and 0.8819. Alternatively, Fresh strength above initial barrier and former consolidation top at 0.8975, would re-focus 0.9000 break point, also 50% retracement of 0.9165/0.8819 descend, for possible resumption of near-term recovery phase.

Res: 0.8935; 0.8975; 0.9000; 0.9033

Sup: 0.8900; 0.8880; 0.8842; 0.8819

The Euro trades in near-term consolidative phase, off fresh low at 1.3570, where the pullback found temporary support just ahead of daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.3563 and main bull trendline at 1.3550. The price action is entrenched within 1.3600/55 range, with hourly studies in neutral mode. However, negative tone prevails on 4-hour chart that keeps the downside at risk, while the price holds below initial barriers at 1.3664/69, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3817/1.3570 and 4-hour 55DMA. Break lower to trigger fresh bear-leg and open next targets at 1.3525, higher platform / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3294/1.3892 upleg, reinforced by daily 100DMA / round figure support. Conversely, sustained break above 1.3570 hurdle is required to avert immediate downside risk and allow for stronger bounce towards strong 1.3700/20 resistance zone, 50% / 61.8% retracement of 1.3817/1.3570 / bearish 20/55DMA’s crossover.

Res: 1.3655; 1.3670; 1.3700; 1.3720

Sup: 1.3600; 1.3570; 1.3525; 1.3500

Cable maintains negative tone off fresh high at 1.6602, as 4-hour studies remain negative and near-term consolidation above fresh reversal low at 1.6336, stays capped by 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6602/1.6336 descend at 1.6435. Hourly studies are neutral, as the price action consolidates within 1.6373/1.6435 range, confirmed by yesterday’s Doji, with downside seen vulnerable while 1.6435 caps. Extension higher needs to clear key near-term barrier at 1.6470, 03/01 lower top / 50% retracement, to bring bulls in play and signal near-term ****. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation and fresh leg lower, would remain in play.

Res: 1.6435; 1.6473; 1.6500; 1.6539

Sup: 1.6375; 1.6336; 1.6300; 1.6254

The pair returns to strength, as recovery attempt from fresh low at 103.90 broke above trendline resistance at 104.45 and cracked lower top / psychological barrier at 105.00. With 4-hour indicators breaking into positive territory, near-term focus turns towards key barriers and double-top at 105.40 zone, as fresh bulls confirm higher low formation at 104 zone, strong trendline / Fibonacci support. Regain of 105.40 hurdle to signal completion of near-term corrective phase and resume larger uptrend. However, hesitation ahead of 105.40 could be expected on overbought hourly studies, with corrective action to be ideally contained above 104.50, 50% retracement of 103.90/105.12 upleg / hourly bullish 20/55DMA’s crossover.

Res: 105.12; 105.43; 105.58; 106.00

Sup: 104.82; 104.65; 104.50; 104.32

Near-term structure remains weak, as the reversal from 0.9003 upside rejection probed below 0.8900 support. Negative hourly and 4-hour indicators breaking below the midlines, favor further weakness, as the price so far retraced over 61.8% of 0.8842/0.9003 recovery rally. Clear break below 0.89 handle to open initial 0.8842 support, with risk of retesting key support and 2013 low at 0.8819, seen in extension. Key near-term barrier and breakpoint lies at 0.9000 zone and only break here would improve the structure and allow for stronger corrective action.

Res: 0.8935; 0.8975; 0.9000; 0.9033

Sup: 0.8892; 0.8880; 0.8842; 0.8819

The Euro extended near-term weakness from 1.3892 peak, to test strong support of bull-trendline off 1.2754 low and Daily Ichimoku cloud top at 1.3550 zone. The support contained bears for now, with corrective action under way, testing initial barrier at 1.3600/10, round-figure / hourly 20DMA, ahead of lower platform / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3817/1.3552 / 4-hour 55DMA, where rallies should be ideally capped to maintain bears. Technicals on lower timeframes remain negative and favor further downside, once corrective action is completed, with slide below 1.3550 to open 1.3525, higher platform / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3294/1.3892 upleg, reinforced by daily 100DMA and 1.3500, round-figure support in extension. Alternative scenario sees break above 1.3650 as a trigger for stronger bounce towards 1.3684, 50% retracement and 1.3716, 61.8% / 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover / broken bull-trendline off 1.3294.

Res: 1.3610; 1.3650; 1.3684; 1.3700

Sup: 1.3552; 1.3525; 1.3500; 1.3461

Cable extends near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 1.6336, after break above initial barrier and consolidation top at 1.3438, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6602/1.6336, tested next target at1.6469, 50% retracement. Positive hourly studies and 4-hour indicators breaking above the midlines, support further recovery, with break above 1.6469/73, Fibonacci barrier / 03/01 lower top, is required to confirm formation of higher low at 1.6336 and trigger further gains towards 1.6500, psychological resistance / Fibonacci 61.8%. Initial support lies at 1.6434, previous resistance, reinforced by hourly 20DMA, with 1.64 zone, bullish 20/55DMA’s crossover / mid-point of entire 1.6336/1.6469 rally, expected to contain corrective dips.

Res: 1.6469; 1.6473; 1.6500; 1.6539

Sup: 1.6434; 1.6400; 1.6375; 1.6336

The pair returns to strength, as recovery attempt from fresh low at 103.90 broke above trendline resistance and lower tops at 140.83/94, to crack psychological barrier at 105.00, on extension to 105.12 so far. With near-term studies holding positive tone, near-term focus is shifted towards key barriers and double-top at 105.40 zone, as fresh bulls confirm higher low formation at 104 zone, strong trendline / Fibonacci support. Regain of 105.40 hurdle to signal completion of near-term corrective phase and resume larger uptrend. Corrective action off 105.12 was so far contained by ascending hourly 55DMA at 104.65, 38.2% of 103.90/105.12, with triangular consolidation under 105 handle being under way. Near-term bulls would come under pressure in case the price slides below 103.65 and 103.50 supports, the latter marking 50% retracement.

Res: 105.00; 105.12; 105.43; 105.58

Sup: 104.75; 104.65; 104.50; 104.32

Near-term structure remains weak, as the reversal from 0.9003 upside rejection sustains break below 0.8900 support. Negative near-term technicals favor further weakness, as the price so far retraced over 76.4% of 0.8842/0.9003 recovery rally, on extension to 0.8863 so far. Initial support at 0.8842 is under pressure, with risk of retesting key support and 2013 low at 0.8819, seen in extension, break of which to resume larger downtrend and expose the next target at 0.8769, Aug 2010low. Key near-term barrier and breakpoint lies at 0.9000 zone and only break here would neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 0.8892; 0.8910; 0.8951; 0.8975

Sup: 0.8863; 0.8842; 0.8819; 0.8800

The Euro ended week in positive tone, following last Friday’s strong rally from 1.3550 zone, where higher **** was formed, with support being reinforced bull-trendline off 1.2754 / daily 100DMA. Rally to 1.3686, so far retraced 50% of 1.3817/1.3547 downleg, with near-term technicals returning to bullish mode. Consolidation on overextended hourly studies is under way and so far contained at previous double-top at 1.3655, with further upside seen favored in the near-term. Immediate barriers lay at 1.3700/15 zone, round-figure / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bearish cross, above which to open way towards strong 1.38 resistance zone. Any further dips should be ideally contained above 1.3630, 50% retracement of Friday’s 1.3567/1.3686 rally, to keep bulls in play.

Res: 1.3686; 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3753

Sup: 1.3655; 1.3630; 1.3612; 1.3595

Cable maintains positive near-term tone, as weekly close occurred just under 1.65 barrier, following last Friday’s bumpy post-US data ride, when price dipped to 1.6380, but quickly recovered losses. As 1.65 resistance, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6602/1.6336 descend, has been cracked, further upside is favored and requires clear break here to open key resistance at 1.6602, 02/01 peak. Positively aligned near-term studies support the notion, with corrective dips allowed to 1.6400, 61.8% of last Friday’s 1.6380/1.6515 rally, otherwise, downside pressure would increase on a violation of 1.6400/1.6380 supports

Res: 1.6450; 1.6500; 1.6515; 1.6539; 1.6577

Sup: 1.6480; 1.6447; 1.6430; 1.6400

The pair lost ground after last Friday’s upside rejection on approach to key 105.40 barrier and subsequent acceleration lower, losing 104.26 trendline support and more significant 104 ****. Fresh weakness approaches next support 103.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.60/105.43 ascend, with bearish near-term technicals keeping the downside in focus and the notion being supported by daily Evening Doji star. However, oversold conditions of lower timeframes studies, suggest consolidative / corrective phase, ahead of fresh weakness, with no reversal signal being generated yet. On the upside, previous supports at 103.90/104.00, offer initial and solid resistance, ahead of broken bear-trendline at 104.30, also 50% of last Friday’s fall, where rallies should be ideally capped.

Res: 103.90; 104.04; 104.30; 104.55

Sup: 103.24; 103.00; 102.50; 102.14

The pair regained strength and eventually broke above three-week congestion top at 0.9000, with fresh extension to 0.9046, marking over 61.8% retracement of 0.9165/0.8819 downleg. Immediate threat of fresh weakness and resumption of larger downtrend, is now sidelined, as near-term price action moves in corrective mode. Regain of key barrier at 0.9165, 10/12 high, is required to neutralize bears and confirm **** at 0.8820 zone. However, overbought conditions of 1 and 4-hour chart studies, would delay fresh upside attempts and allow for consolidative/corrective action, with initial support laying at 0.9000, reinforced by hourly 20DMA and 0.8960, 50% of 0.8879/0.9040 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55DMA, expected to contain. On the upside, next hurdles lay at 0.9083/91, Fibonacci 76.4% / 4-hour 55DMA, with clearance of psychological 0.9100 barrier, to clear way towards key 0.9165 level. Reversing daily indicators are supportive for further recovery action.

Res: 0.9040; 0.9083; 0.9100; 0.9165

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8978; 0.8960; 0.8940

The Euro maintains positive near-term tone and attempts above consolidation top at 1.3686, with price action being underpinned by hourly 55DMA. Positive 4-hour studies see the upside favored in the near-term, with break above initial resistance at 1.3686, also near 50% retracement of 1.3817/1.3547 downleg, to open next barrier at 1.3714, Fibonacci 61.8% and 1.3753, 76.4% retracement in extension. Sustained break above 1.37 hurdle is required to expose strong 1.38 resistance zone and confirm near-term **** at 1.3547. Initial support lies at 1.3650, 55DMA, below which comes 1.3636, consolidation floor / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3547/1.3698 upleg and 1.3623/00, 50% / 61.8%/trendline support, loss of which to bring bears in play and risk return to key 1.3547 support, 09/01 low / daily 100DMA.

Res: 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3753; 1.3800

Sup: 1.3636; 1.3623; 1.3600; 1.3567

Cable lost ground after repeated rejection at 1.65 barrier triggered sharp two-legged fall that nearly fully retraced 1.6336/1.6515 upleg on a dip to 1.6345. Freshly established bears on lower timeframes and formation of lower top at 1.6515, see increased downside risk for break below 1.6336 handle towards immediate supports at 1.6316, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5853/1.6602 and psychological 1.6300 support, also Fibonacci 76.4% expansion of the third wave from 1.6515, below which the wave could extend to 1.6234, its 100% expansion and 1.6212, 17/12 low. Conversely, holding above 1.6336, would prolong consolidation and signal basing attempt, with bounce through pivotal 1.6430/40 barriers, required to confirm.

Res: 1.6427; 1.6445; 1.6464; 1.6500

Sup: 1.6400; 1.6366; 1.6345; 1.6336

The pair lost ground after last Friday’s upside rejection on approach to key 105.40 barrier and subsequent acceleration through trendline support and 104 ****. Fresh extension lower cracked 103.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.60/105.43 ascend. Negative near-term technicals keep the downside in focus, with corrective action on oversold hourlies, seen preceding fresh weakness. Bounce from fresh low at 102.84, through initial barrier at 103.55 needs to clear 103.69/80, 55DMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 105.34/102.84 and regain important 104.00 handle, to avert immediate downside risk. Otherwise, lower top formation and further retracement towards 102.50, Fibonacci 76.4% of 101.60/105.43 and 102.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 96.55/105.43 ascend, would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 103.80; 104.00; 104.39; 104.75

Sup: 103.22; 102.84; 102.50; 102.14

The pair regained strength and eventually broke above three-week congestion top at 0.9000, with fresh extension to 0.9084, 76.4% retracement of 0.9165/0.8819 downleg, signaling further recovery. Break above psychological 0.9100 barrier and regain of key barrier at 0.9165, 10/12 high, is required to neutralize bears and confirm **** at 0.8820 zone. However, corrective pullback on overbought conditions of 1 and 4-hour chart studies, would delay fresh upside attempts, with dips facing initial support at 0.9000, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8879/0.9084 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55DMA and 0.8982, 50% retracement, where further dips should be contained.

Res: 0.9044; 0.9083; 0.9100; 0.9165

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8982; 0.8957; 0.8927