Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro/Usd trades in near-term corrective mode, off last week’s fresh low at 1.3100, where the pair found temporary support. Strong rally from 1.3100, with weekly close above 200DMA, remains capped under 1.3200 barrier for now, where the price consolidates. Positive hourly structure, with price action being underpinned by 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover, sees the upside favored. Break above 1.32 to open next layers of significant resistances at 1.3220 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3397/1.3103 / 55DMA and 1.3250, 50% retracement, 30/08 lower platform, break of which to confirm recovery. Indicators on 4-hour chart are in the negative zone that keeps the downside at risk, however bullish MACD/RSI divergence is seen as supportive factor. Immediate support lies at 1.3160, while violation of 1.3100, would bring bears in play and signal resumption of larger downtrend from 1.3450 peak.

Res: 1.3189; 1.3200; 1.3220; 1.3250

Sup: 1.3160; 1.3136; 1.3100; 1.3080

Res: 1.5666; 1.5679; 1.5700; 1.5716

Sup: 1.5611; 1.5600; 1.5562; 1.5553

The pair recovered good part of last Friday’s losses, when the price dipped to 98.53, following brief break above 100 barrier and fresh high being posted at 100.21. Gap higher opening cracked 100 hurdle again, however, weak hourly studies keep the downside at risk. Loss of 99.00, psychological support and Friday’s closing price, would trigger fresh weakness and expose 98.50 breakpoint, Friday’s low / 50% retracement of 96.80/100.21 ascend. Conversely, sustained break above 100 barrier, is required to resume broader uptrend off 95.78, 08/08 low and look for test of 100.44/85 barriers.

Res: 99.79; 100.09; 100.21; 100.44

Sup: 99.15; 99.00; 98.50; 98.00

The Aussie remains firm and consolidates last week’s gains that peaked above 0.9200 barrier. Positive tone prevails on lower timeframes and sees scope for eventual attempt through key near-term barriers at 0.9220/32, to confirm near-term **** and open way for stronger corrective action towards 0.9300 zone, where the next barriers lay. Daily indicators breaking above the midlines, support the notion. Initial supports lies at 0.9160 zone, while only loss of 0.9115/00 handles, would delay immediate bulls.

Res: 0.9215; 0.9220; 0.9232; 0.9250

Sup: 0.9166; 0.9115; 0.9100; 0.9068

The Euro regained strength after finding ground at 1.3100 zone, 50% of 1.2754/1.3450 upleg, rallying through 1.3200/20 and 1.3250 barriers. The price retraced exactly 50% of 1.3450/1.3103 descend at 1.3277, session high, with pause in rally suggested by overbought 1 and 4-hour conditions. Near-term studies are positive and favor further upside, with psychological 1.33 level and 1.3320, previous consolidation floor / Fibonacci 61.8%, are the next targets, with 1.3400, range top and 1.3450, 20/08 peak, seen on extension. Corrective dips should be ideally contained at 1.3200, psychological support / 20DMA, to keep freshly established bulls in play.

Res: 1.3279; 1.3300; 1.3320; 1.3355

Sup: 1.3250; 1.3220; 1.3200; 1.3190

Res: 1.5731; 1.5751; 1.5809; 1.5843

Sup: 1.5684; 1.5645; 1.5615; 1.5562

The pair maintains positive near-term tone, as repeated rejection above 100 barrier, found footstep at 99.32, keeping the Monday’s gap intact. Fresh strength aims through 100 again, with break above 100.21, last Friday’s high, required to resume upleg from 96.80 and open 100/44/85, next targets. Near-term studies are positive and keep the upside favored, as long as the price holds above 99.32 higher platform. Conversely, loss of 99.00 would bring bears back in play.

Res: 100.09; 100.21; 100.44; 100.85

Sup: 99.46; 99.32; 99.00; 98.53

The Aussie continues to trend higher and cleared strong barrier at 0.9220/32, 12/19 / 08 double-top. This confirms near-term **** at 0.8846/90 and sees potential for further recovery towards pivotal 0.9300/50 resistance zone. Daily indicators are breaking into positive territory and gaining strong bullish momentum that supports the notion. However overbought near-term conditions suggest pause in current rally, in favor of corrective pullback. Previous barriers at 0.9232/20, now act as initial support, ahead of 0.9200/0.9190. Increased downside risk would be seen on a slide below 0.9100 handle, near 50% retracement of 0.8891/0.9288 rally.

Res: 0.9288; 0.9300; 0.9316; 0.9343

Sup: 0.9232; 0.9220; 0.9200; 0.9190

Spot Gold remains under pressure, with near-term technicals maintain negative tone, as recovery attempt was capped under psychological 1400 barrier. Fresh weakness is under way, with immediate support at 1373 coming under pressure, ahead of more significant 1358/55, 06/09 low / trendline resistance, below which to open key support and breakpoint at 1350 zone. Alternative scenario requires break above 1400 and regain of 1416 lower top, to avert immediate downside risk.

Res: 1381; 1394; 1400; 1410

The Euro holds firm and consolidates recent gains off 1.31 ****, trading within 1.3230/80 range. Near-term studies remain positive and favor further upside, where 1.33 comes first, ahead of 1.3320, previous consolidation floor / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3450/1.3103 downleg. The downside is for now protected at 1.3230, previous resistance and 55DMA, with any extension lower, expected to hold above 1.32 handle, also near 50% retracement of 1.3103/1.3381 ascend, to keep positive structure intact.

Res: 1.3281; 1.3300; 1.3320; 1.3355

Sup: 1.3230; 1.3220; 1.3200; 1.3190

The pair continues to trend higher, with clearance of the last hurdle at 1.5700, approaching key short-term resistance at 1.5751. Break here is required to complete three-month corrective phase and signal break out of six-month cycle, as well as to confirm larger picture double-bottom, formed on 1.4830/12 lows. Positive near-term studies remain supportive, however, hesitation at 1.5751 hurdle may be triggered by overbought conditions. Initial supports lie at 1.5700/1.5684, with stronger pullback expected to find ground above 1.5600/1.5585, near 50% retracement of 1.5427/1.5743 rally, to keep bulls in play.

Res: 1.5743; 1.5751; 1.5809; 1.5843

Sup: 1.5700; 1.5684; 1.5622; 1.5600

The pair finally cleared 100 barrier, with yesterday’s close above this level, suggesting further advance. With initial 100.44 resistance being taken out and 100.85 coming in near-term focus, extension towards key barrier at 101.52, 08/07, would be likely short-term scenario. Positive tone prevails on lower and larger timeframes studies and keeps bulls in play. Corrective dips would face immediate support at 100 level, with solid support at 99.32/00 zone, seen as ideal reversal point.

Res: 100.60; 100.85; 101.00; 101.52

Sup: 100.00; 99.32; 99.00; 98.53

The Aussie remains well supported and continues to trend higher. Final push through psychological 0.9300 barrier, so far tested 0.9316, 24/07 high, cracking strong 0.9300/0.9350 resistance zone, break of which is required to confirm short-term **** at 0.8846/90 lows and allow for stronger retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descend. Near-term technicals are positive, with overbought 4-hour studies, suggesting corrective action, ahead of fresh attempt higher. Previous resistance at 0.9232/20, along with psychological 0.9200 level, offer good support, while only loss of 0.9100 support, also 50% retracement of 0.8891/0.9317 ascend, would bring bears back in play.

Res: 0.9316; 0.9343; 0.9350; 0.9400

Sup: 0.9279; 0.9232; 0.9220; 0.9200

The Euro cracked psychological 1.33 resistance on Wednesday’s rally through 1.3280, two-day consolidation top. Fresh gains reached 1.3323 so far, over 61.8% retracement of 1.3450/1.3103 downleg, with positive near-term studies being supportive for further advance. Clearance of 1.33 barrier would open way for final push towards key levels at 1.3414/50, 19/06 and 20/08 highs, also five-month cycle peaks. From the other side, daily studies are still weak and keep the risk of possible stall in play. Near-term bulls may be delayed, as 4-hour studies are overbought, with corrective easing expected to face immediate support at 1.3280, previous range top / daily 20DMA, ahead of more significant 1.3240/30 higher platform that should contain dips.

Res: 1.3323; 1.3355; 1.3400; 1.3414

Sup: 1.3280; 1.3253; 1.3230; 1.3220

Near-term bulls remain unobstructed, as the pair rallies higher and broke above psychological 1.58 barrier, after clearing key short-term resistance at 1.5751. Fresh bull phase above 1.5751, attempts at initial target at 1.5843, 08/02 high, ahead of 1.5877; 01/02 high and psychological 1.5900 barrier. Studies remain positive on all timeframes and keep the upside favored, however, corrective pullback on overbought conditions is likely to precede fresh rallies. Immediate support lies at 1.5800, with previous peak at 1.5751, seen next and 1.5700 zone expected to contain.

Res: 1.5831; 1.5843; 1.5877; 1.5900

Sup: 1.5800; 1.5751; 1.5717; 1.5700

The pair came under increased pressure, after pullback from fresh high at 100.60, accelerated lower and broke below important 99.32 support and weekly low. With hourly studies being negative and 4-hour indicators approaching their midlines, immediate risk is seen on violation of 99.00 support that will fill Monday’s gap and open way for further easing towards 98.00, 50% retracement of 96.80/100.60 upleg and 98.53, 06/09 spike low, loss of which to confirm near-term top at 100.60. Conversely, reversal above 99.00, would keep near-term bulls in play, as positive daily studies support such scenario.

Res: 99.60; 100.00; 100.36; 100.44

Sup: 99.18; 99.00; 98.70; 98.53

The Aussie’s near-term bulls extended higher to briefly test the upper boundary of pivotal 0.9300/50 resistance zone. Subsequent sharp pullback weakened hourly structure, as the price dipped about 100 pips, but could be still seen as corrective, as 4-hour structure is positive. However, reversing 4-hour indicators suggest that further easing cannot be ruled out, with strong 0.9232/20 and 0.9200 support area, coming in sight. Ideally, dips should be contained here, to keep overall near-term positive structure intact, as fresh strength above 0.9350 is required to signal reversal.

Res: 0.9275; 0.9300; 0.9316; 0.9353

Sup: 0.9232; 0.9220; 0.9200; 0.9170

The Euro hit fresh three-week high vs the dollar at 1.3380, as risk-on mode accelerates and the pair started the week with 60-pips gap-higher opening. The price trades in a narrow consolidative range, ahead of the next target and lower platform at 1.3400, break of which to open key barrier at 1.3450, 20/08 peak. Near-term technicals are positive and favor further upside, however, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, as studies approach overbought territory. Immediate support lies at 1.3350, session low, ahead of 1.3300, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3252.1.3380 upleg, below which to signal stronger pullback towards key support at 1.3240, previous consolidation floor / 50% retracement of larger 1.3103/1.3380 ascend.

Res: 1.3380; 1.3400; 1.3414; 1.3450

Sup: 1.3350; 1.3320; 1.3300; 1.3274

Cable remains well supported and continues to rally higher, with gap-higher opening today, surging through initial 1.59 barrier. The pair looks for test of psychological 1.6000 barrier and 1.6010, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.6380/1.4812 descend. Break above short-term congestion and formation of double-bottom at the larger picture, sees scope for extension towards key med-term resistance at 1.6380, 2012 high, in the short-term. Positive near-term studies support the notion, however, bulls may be delayed, as hourly and 4-hour studies are overbought. Immediate supports lay at 1.5930, session low and 1.5900, while filling the gap on a slide below 1.5870, would signal deeper pullback.

Res: 1.5955; 1.6000; 1.6010; 1.6050

Sup: 1.5930; 1.5900; 1.5870, 1.5835

The pair came under increased pressure after losing 99.00 handle, as overnight’s gap-lower opening triggered further weakness. Reversal off 100.60 peak retraced over 50% of 96.80/100.60 upleg on a dip to 98.44, session low, with near-term bears being fully in play and seeing scope for further easing towards 98.25, Fibonacci 61.8% and 98.00, round figure support. Completion of 4-hour H&S pattern supports the notion, with psychological 100 barrier being on hold for now, despite positively aligned daily studies.

Res: 99.09; 99.29; 99.76; 100.00

Sup: 98.44; 98.25; 98.00; 97.70

The Aussie found ground at 0.9220 zone, where the higher **** has been formed, with fresh strength and gap-higher opening, pushing the price to the new highs near psychological 0.9400 barrier. Resumption of larger recovery from 0.8846/90 **** and clear break above important 0.9300/50 resistance zone, signals stronger corrective action of med-term 1.0581/0.8846 descend. Near-term studies maintain positive tone, with larger picture bulls being in play, as the price emerges above of daily Ichimoku cloud. Initial supports lay at 0.9317, session low and 0.9300, round figure, ahead of 0.9280. Only loss of 0.9220 platform would delay immediate bulls.

Res: 0.9392; 0.9430; 0.9470; 0.9500

Sup: 0.9317; 0.9300; 0.9280; 0.9265

The Euro remains steady ahead of Fed tomorrow and consolidates after fresh rally that peaked at 1.3384 on Monday. Pullback has so far found support at 1.3320, previous high / hourly 55DMA, with positively aligned 4-hour studies, keeping the upside focused. Key barriers lay at 1.3400 and 1.3450, clearance of which to signal break above multi-month congestion. From the other side, weak hourly studies, keep the downside vulnerable for possible test of important 1.33 support, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3252/1.3384 upleg, loss of which would sideline near-term bulls and open key support at 1.3350/40 higher platform, also 50% retracement of 1.3103/1.3384 rally.

Res: 1.3353; 1.3384; 1.3400; 1.3450

Sup: 1.3324; 1.3300; 1.3274; 1.3252

The pair trades in near-term corrective mode, after posting marginally higher high at 1.5961 on Monday. Reversal was so far contained at 1.5887, 55DMA / 38.2% of 1.5775/1.5961 upleg and just ahead of 1.5878, last Friday’s closing price and 1.5868, 50% retracement, below which to trigger stronger pullback, suggested by weakening hourly studies. However, bullish tone, prevailing on larger timeframes, keeps final push towards psychological 1.6000 barrier and favored scenario, once corrective phase ids completed.

Res: 1.5929; 1.5961; 1.6000; 1.6010

Sup: 1.5887; 1.5870, 1.5838; 1.5819

The pair recovered over 38.2% of 100.60/98.44 fall, as bounce from 98.44 filled Monday’s gap and reached so far 99.35, with 99.00, now acting as immediate support. Hourly studies turned positive and see potential for further recovery, however, weak 4-hour conditions see regain of 99.96, 13/09 lower top, required to sideline downside risk towards 98.25/00 targets and open levels above 100 barrier instead.

Res: 99.35; 99.52; 99.77; 99.96

Sup: 98.44; 98.25; 98.00; 97.70

The Aussie erased Monday’s gains that peaked at 0.9392 and turned in defensive mode, mainly being driven by fundamentals. Dips found footstep just below 0.9300 support for now, with weak hourly studies, seeing risk of further easing, before bulls return to play. On the 4-hour chart, positive tone prevails, however, the price is losing momentum. Also, formation of RSI/MACD bearish divergence, keeps the downside vulnerable. Loss of 55DMA at 0.9232 and higher platform at 0.9222, would be initial signal of stronger correction. From the other side, break above key 0.9300/50 resistance zone, would open way for further recovery and expose psychological 0.9500 barrier in the near-term.

Res: 0.9333; 0.9353; 0.9392; 0.9430

Sup: 0.9284; 0.9265; 0.9232; 0.9222