Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro remains at the back foot, as break below initial 1.3540 support, triggered fresh acceleration that fully retraced 1.3500/1.3645 upleg. Break below 1.3500 support, focuses strong support zone at 1.3460/40, higher platform / previous peak of 20/08 and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3103/1.3645 rally. Negative near-term technicals favor the scenario, with consolidative action on oversold hourly studies, expected to precede fresh weakness. Any stronger rally should stay capped under 1.3545/65, Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% of 1.3645/1.3484 downleg, to keep freshly established bears in play.

Res: 1.3525; 1.3545; 1.3565; 1.3583

Sup: 1.3484; 1.3460; 1.3440; 1.3400

Cable came under increased pressure yesterday, with fresh bearish acceleration extending reversal from 1.6259 peak below 1.6000 handle and approaching the next support at 1.5900. The third wave that commenced from 1.6123 lower top, could travel to 1.5871/57, main bull trendline off 1.4812 and 100% Fibonacci expansion, with negative near-term studies supporting the notion. Bears may be interrupted by consolidative action, as hourly and 4-hour studies are oversold, with 1.6000, previous support, now offering solid resistance.

Res 1.5965; 1.6000; 1.6041; 1.6081

Sup: 1.5912; 1.5900; 1.5871; 1.5857

The pair extends near-term correction through initial barrier at 97.47 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 99.65/96.55 descend, approaching initial barriers at 98.00/10, psychological resistance / 50% retracement. Positively aligned near-term studies support further advance, however, overbought hourlies may delay rally. Clear break above 98.00 resistance zone is required to confirm freshly established uptrend and near-term **** at 96.55, for stronger recovery towards next significant barrier at 99.00. Corrective dips should be contained above higher low at 97.11, to maintain bulls.

Res: 97.81; 98.00; 98.10; 98.28

Sup: 97.45; 97.11; 96.81; 96.55

The pair came under pressure, as recovery attempt off 0.9280 failed to sustain break above 0.9455 barrier, with extension higher stalling at 0.9483 and subsequent pullback probing levels below 0.9400 support. Hourly studies turned negative, while 4-hour indicators are heading south that keeps the downside at risk, as the pullback retraced nearly 50% of 0.9280/0.9483 rally. Further easing would signal prolonged consolidation under 0.9526 high, as the price holds within 0.9280/0.9500 range. However, positive daily studies keep the upside in focus, with price action required to hold above key near-term support at 0.9280.

Res: 0.9422; 0.9471; 0.9483; 0.9500

Sup: 0.9388; 0.9358; 0.9332; 0.9300

The Euro ended week in the positive tone, closing just below psychological 1.37 barrier that was cracked last Friday. Annual high at 1.3710 remain in immediate focus, with break here to extend the third wave that commenced from 1.3103, 01/09 higher low and could travel to 1.3803, its 100% Fibonacci expansion and 1.3832, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of larger 1.4938/1.2042 bear-phase. Bulls remain in play in near-term technicals, however, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, as studies on 4-hour chart are overextended. Current consolidation floor at 1.3658, along with previous peak at 1.3645, offers initial support, ahead of 1.3614/1.3587, 50% / 61.8% of 1.3472/1.3702, the latter being reinforced by 55DMA and seen as ideal reversal point. Key near-term supports and breakpoints lay at 1.3472/50, 16/10 low / 20/08 peak and only break here would neutralize near-term bulls.

Res: 1.3702; 1.3710; 1.3750; 1.3800

Sup: 1.3658; 1.3645; 1.3614; 1.3587

Cable consolidates fresh gains on Friday, when the price peaked at 1.6223 and corrective pullback being established above 1.6140, consolidative floor. However, downside risk persists, as hourly indicators head south and 4-hour conditions being overextended. This suggests further consolidative / corrective action that may precede eventual push towards near-term target at 1.6259, 01/10 high, with further easing to be ideally contained at 1.6100, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5892/1.6223 rally. Only break below 1.6058, 50% retracement and 55DMA, would neutralize immediate bulls. Daily studies remain positive, as the bull trendline holds, however, Friday’s Doji, suggests hesitation on approach to key near-term barrier at 1.6259.

Res: 1.6177; 1.6200; 1.6223; 1.6259

Sup: 1.6140; 1.6123; 1.6100; 1.6058

The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, off fresh low at 97.54, with upside being capped at 98.14 for now. Prevailing negative tone on 4-hour chart, keeps the downside at risk, with fresh weakness through 97.54, also near 61.8% retracement of 96.55/98.99 upleg, to open way for further easing and expose 97.13/00, 76.4% retracement / round-figure support. Conversely, fresh bulls, built on hourly chart, may prolong consolidative phase and possibly shift near-term focus higher, in case price sustain break above 98.27/44, Fibonacci 50% / 61.8% retracement of 98.99/97.54 downleg.

Res: 98.14; 98.27; 98.44; 98.65

Sup: 97.91; 97.76; 97.54; 97.13

The pair remains supported and continues to trend higher, as upside acceleration through psychological 0.9600 barrier, tested near-term target at 0.9664, 14/06 peak and Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low. Break here to open psychological 0.9700 barrier and 0.9714, 50% retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descend, net targets. Extension of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low, could travel to 0.9905/18, Fibonacci 100% expansion and 61.8% retracement of 1.0581/0.8846, once 0.9700/14 barriers are cleared. Near-term studies are positive, however, corrective easing is seen as likely near-term scenario, as 4-hour RSI is in overbought territory and studies are overextended. Immediate supports lay at 0.9641/00, with previous peak at 0.9526, also 38.2% retracement of 0.9280/0.9678 rally, expected to contain.

Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9714; 0.9770

Sup: 0.9641; 0.9600; 0.9546; 0.9526

The Euro trades in widened consolidative range, with downside being for now protected by hourly 55DMA / 4-hour 20DMA at 1.3650, also Fibonacci 23.6% of 1.3472/1.3702 ascend and previous high of 03/10. Hourly studies are neutral to negative, with further sideways mode seen while 1.3650 holds. On the other side, 4-hour indicators are descending from overextended territory that keeps the downside vulnerable of further corrective easing. Below 1.3650 handle, Fibonacci 38.2% at 1.3614, will come next, along with 1.3600, high of 14/10 and 4-hour 55DMA, levels seen as ideal reversal point, ahead of fresh attack at short-term target at 1.3710, with 1.3800, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 1.3103, seen as next target. Any break below 1.3600 would delay bulls for further consolidation, with pivotal near-term support lying at 1.3470 zone.

Res: 1.3687; 1.3702; 1.3710; 1.3750

Sup: 1.3650; 1.3614; 1.3600; 1.3587

Cable moves lower after losing initial support at 1.6140, with hourly studies turning negative, as the price heads towards psychological 1.6100 support, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5892/1.6223 rally. Indicators on 4-hour chart slide from overbought territory and support the idea of further corrective easing that would be triggered on a break below 1.6100 handle. Next significant level stands at 1.6075, 50% retracement and 4-hour 55DMA, below which, risk of lower top at 1.6223 would increase, with break below near-term **** and pivotal point at 1.5900 zone, required to activate negative scenario and allow for stronger pullback. Reversal above 1.6000, psychological and trendline support, would keep larger bulls intact for renewed attempt towards 1.6223 and key 1.6259 resistance.

Res: 1.6138; 1.6177; 1.6200; 1.6223

Sup: 1.6114; 1.6100; 1.6058; 1.6018

The pair remains supported and heads higher, as break above initial 98.14 barrier extended recovery rally from 97.54 low. Positively aligned hourly structure supports further upside with break above 98.50 barrier, near 61.8% of 98.99/97.54 downleg, required to confirm bullish resumption and focus key near-term hurdle at 98.99, 17/10 peak. On the other side, weak 4-hour studies would keep the downside risk in play, while below 98.50, with loss of initial 98.00 support, seen as spark for further weakness towards 97.54, 18/10 low. Loss of the latter to bring bears fully in play and confirm lower top formation.

Res: 98.44; 98.65; 98.99; 99.65

Sup: 98.14; 98.00; 97.73; 97.54

The pair remains supported as upside acceleration through psychological 0.9600 barrier, cleared near-term target at 0.9664, 14/06 peak and Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low. Psychological 0.9700 barrier and 0.9714, 50% retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descends, come in near-term focus, however, rally is likely to be preceded by current consolidative action, with 0.9600 support expected to hold. Extension of the third wave from 0.9280 higher low, could travel to 0.9905/18, Fibonacci 100% expansion and 61.8% retracement of 1.0581/0.8846, once 0.9700/14 barriers are cleared. Near-term studies are positive, however, 4-hour indicators moving from overbought territory, favor further consolidation. Only break below 0.9600 handle would delay and open next significant support at 0.9526, previous peak and 38.2% retracement of 0.9280/0.9678 rally.

Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9714; 0.9770

Sup: 0.9641; 0.9600; 0.9546; 0.9526

The Euro got unleashed again, after weaker than expected US jobs data pushed the dollar significantly lower. The single currency completed multi-year 1.3710/1.2042 bear-phase on a break above 1.3710, 2013 annual peak. Fresh extension higher reached levels close to psychological 1.3800 barrier, with next target lying at 1.3832, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.4938/1.2042 descend. Overbought near-term technicals suggest hesitation ahead of 1.38 barrier, with corrective easing to face initial supports at 1.3710/00, ahead of 1.3670, 38.2% retracement of 1.3472/1.3792 rally and higher **** at 1.3650, where dips should be ideally contained.

Res: 1.3792; 1.3832; 1.3850; 1.3900

Sup: 1.3710; 1.3670; 1.3650; 1.3630

Cable enters near-term corrective mode, following yesterday’s fresh rally above 1.6223 barrier that stalled on approach to key resistance at 1.6259. Weakening hourly studies bring immediate threat towards strong 1.6114 support and higher low that also marks 38.2% retracement of 1.5892/1.6254 upleg. Potential break here would sideline immediate bulls and push the price towards mid-points of near-term 1.5892/1.6259 range. Alternatively, fresh attempt at 1.6259 and break above 1.6259, towards short-term targets at 1.6300/80, would be likely scenario, as 4-hour studies remain bullish. However, caution is required, as daily technicals are losing momentum.

Res: 1.6200; 1.6223; 1.6254; 1.6259

Sup: 1.6114; 1.6100; 1.6073; 1.6030

The pair came under increased pressure recovery rally from 97.54 stalled at 98.44 and subsequent weakness erased gains on break below 97.54 handle. Immediate targets at 97.13, 76.4% of 96.55/98.99 and psychological 97.00 support, come under pressure, as the lower top was formed at 98.44. Extension of near-term downtrend from 98.99, would look for full retracement of 96.55/98.44, once 97.00 is cleared. Negative near-term studies support the notion, however, bears may be delayed, as hourly studies are oversold, with corrective bounce expected to hold below 98.00, 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover. Only break above 98.44 would improve near-term structure and avert immediate downside risk.

Res: 97.54; 97.85; 98.00; 98.20

Sup: 97.25; 97.13; 97.00; 96.55

The pair remains supported as fresh extension higher posted new high at 0.9755, earlier today. Break above 0.9714, 50% retracement of larger 1.0581/0.8846 descend, with positive overall picture, keeps the upside favored, with current corrective pullback expected to precede fresh attempt higher. Initial supports lay at 0.9630/00, session low / round figure support, the latter being underpinned by rising 55DMA. Any deeper dips, however, should not exceed 0.9500 support, also 50% of 0.9280/0.9755 rally. Upside extension above 0.9755, would look for 0.9770/90; 04/03 / 06 peaks.

Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9755; 0.9770

Sup: 0.9630; 0.9600; 0.9574; 0.9526

The Euro resumes bulls and cracks psychological 1.38 barrier, after near-term consolidation under the latter was completed. Extension of the third wave that commenced from 1.3103, 06/09 higher low that broke above its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3797, focuses the next target at 1.3832, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 1.4938/1.2744 bear-phase, above which, psychological 1.4000 barrier would come in near-term focus. Near-term studies are positive and support further upside, with overbought 4-hour conditions suggesting a pause in current rally. Consolidation range floor at 1.3740 offers initial support, ahead of 1.3710/00, previous peak / round figure support.

Res: 1.3832; 1.3857; 1.3900; 1.3935

Sup: 1.3773; 1.3740; 1.3710; 1.3650

Cable heads higher after quick pullback from 1.6254, yesterday’s upside rejection, found support at 1.6115, previous low of 22/10 and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5892/1.6254 upleg. Hourly studies are gaining traction, with caution required on 4-hour RSI / MACD bearish divergence, as failure to clear important 1.6254/59 barriers, would trigger further consolidation. However, while 1.6115/00 support zone holds, near-term focus will remain at the upper boundary of congestion, otherwise more negative tone would be seen on a break below 1.6100 that would increase risk of attempts through psychological 1.6000 support and re-visit of key near-term support and higher platform at 1.5900 zone.

Res: 1.6223; 1.6254; 1.6259; 1.6300

Sup: 1.6160; 1.6115; 1.6100; 1.6073

The pair came remains under pressure, as near-term technicals maintain negative tone, with price action being entrenched within narrow consolidative range above fresh low at 97.13, also Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 95.55/98.99. Extension of near-term downtrend from 98.99 and full retracement of 96.55/98.99 upleg, is seen as preferred scenario, with loss of 97.00 handle, required to confirm. Further consolidation, howvere, cannot be ruled out, with psychological / 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover barrier, expected to cap. Only break above 98.47, 22/10 lower top, would revive bears and turnd focus higher.

Res: 97.85; 98.00; 98.18; 98.47

Sup: 97.13; 97.00; 96.55; 96.00

Near-term risk of further easing from fresh high at 0.9755 increases, as near-term studies are losing traction and rally was capped by 200DMA, despite sharp pullback from 0.9755 finding ground at 0.9600 zone, also 55DMA, where basing attempt is evident. Positively aligned hourly studies are lacking strength for push through 0.9680/0.9700 barriers and Fibonacci 50% / 61.8% retracement of 0.9755/0.9606, break of which is required to re-focus 0.9755. Otherwise, risk of further correction of larger 0.9280/0.9577 rally, would persist, as loss of 0.9600 handle is expected to confirm and open next targets at 0.9574, 38.2% and 0.9526/18, previous peak / 50% retracement of the entire rally, along with psychological 0.9500 support that should contain any extension lower. Overextended daily technicals also suggest that caution is required.

Res: 0.9678; 0.9700; 0.9755; 0.9770

Sup: 0.9643; 0.9600; 0.9574; 0.9526

The Euro stabilizes around 1.38 handle, where the price closed for the week, after posting fresh high at 1.3831, Fibonacci resistance. Overall tone remains positive, however, descending indicators on 4-hour chart suggest further consolidation that was signaled by Friday’s Doji. Also overbought daily studies see risk of a pause in near-term rally. Initial support lies at 1.377, consolidation floor /Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3664/1.3831 upleg, ahead of strong 1.37 zone, previous highs / 38.2% retracement and 1.3650 higher low / 50%, where stronger dips should find a footstep. On the upside, break above 1.3831 to focus 1.3900 initially.

Res: 1.3817; 1.3837; 1.3857; 1.3900

Sup: 1.3770; 1.3750; 1.3700; 1.3650

Cable trades in prolonged consolidative phase, with price action being established within 1.6254/1.6114 range, following repeated failure at key 1.6254/59 barrier. Hourly technicals are weak, while 4-hour chart indicators are losing traction, as the price moves within hourly triangular consolidation. Increased downside risk would be seen on a break below 1.6114/00 support zone, as this would also signal double-top formation on 4-hour chart and keep the upside targets on hold. Conversely, sustained break above 1.6200 handle, would shift near-term focus towards key barriers and breakpoints at 1.6254/59, above which to signal resumption of larger uptrend and focus short-term targets at 1.6300/80.

Res: 1.6221; 1.6245; 1.6254; 1.6259

Sup: 1.6168; 1.6148; 1.6114; 1.6100

The pair regains strength and averts immediate downside risk, as bounce off 97.00 support zone that was cracked last Friday, retraces over 50% of 98.47/96.93 downleg, on a weekly gap-higher opening. Hourly studies turned positive, however, weak tone prevails on 4-hour chart, as the price remains in near-term downtrend from 98.99 and current rally being capped by 55DMA at 97.74. Regain of 98.00 and more significant 98.47 lower top, is required to shift focus higher, otherwise, fresh lower top and extension of larger downtrend, would be likely near-term scenario. Initial support lies at 97.43, session low / 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover, while, extension below 96.93 handle would open way for full retracement of 96.55/98.99 ascend.

Res: 97.74; 98.00; 98.18; 98.47

Sup: 97.43; 96.93; 96.55; 96.00

Near-term price action remains under pressure, as extension from 0.9670, where the lower top was left, broke below initial 0.9600 support. Fresh extension lower retraced 38.2% of 0.9280/0.9755 rally on a dip to 0.9571 so far, with near-term indicators sliding into negative territory. Initial targets lay at 0.9526/18, previous peak / 50% retracement, along with psychological 0.9500 support, reinforced by daily 55DMA. Break here to neutralize near-term bulls and spark stronger correction of larger 0.9280/0.9755 rally, as the upside remains capped by descending 200DMA. Corrective attempts face initial resistance at 0.9622, with 0.9670 expected to cap.

Res: 0.9622; 0.9670; 0.9700; 0.9755

Sup: 0.9571; 0.9526; 0.9500; 0.9461