Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro remains steady and eventually broke above psychological / daily cloud top 1.37 barrier, on fresh extension to 1.3723. Clearance of the last obstacle at 1.3715, 27 Jan high, opens way towards key barrier and 24 Jan peak at 1.3738 and near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3892/1.3475 descend. Completion of 1.3738/1.3475 bear-phase is expected to trigger fresh rally, as the third wave that commenced from 1.3561 higher low, broke above its 76.4% expansion, aiming towards 1.3765, 100% Fibonacci expansion, regain of which to validate wave principles. The wave could travel to 1.3842, its 138.2% expansion, once 1.3765 barrier is cleared, with interim resistances laying at 1.38 zone, previous tops of Oct/Dec 2013. Technical outlook is positive and favors further upside, with consolidative phase near 1.37 handle, expected to precede fresh leg higher. Initial support lies at 1.3680, previous peak / minor platform, ahead of 1.3660, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3561/1.3723, where dips should find solid support.

Res: 1.3723; 1.3738; 1.3765; 1.3800

Sup: 1.3680; 1.3660; 1.3620; 1.3600

The pair continues to trend higher, with completion of 1.6668/1.6250 corrective phase, sparking fresh extension that rallied through the next targets at 1.6737/45, also cracking psychological 1.6800 resistance. Strong bulls are expected to pause for corrective pullback, as 4-hour studies are overextended and hourly RSI emerging from overbought territory. Corrective action faces initial supports at 1.6700 and previous peaks at 1.6670 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6424/1.6821 upleg, where dips should be ideally contained. On the upside, next target lies at 1.6877, Nov 2009 peak, above which to expose psychological 1.7000 resistance. Only stronger pullback below 1.66 handle, also Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 1.6250/1.6821 rally, would sideline near-term bulls.

Res: 1.6800; 1.6821; 1.6877; 1.6900

Sup: 1.6730; 1.6700; 1.6670; 1.6620

The pair remains under pressure, as fresh weakness below102.00/101.75 handles, retraced over 61.8% of 100.74/102.69 upleg, on a dip to 101.37 so far, after the price cracked daily cloud **** at 101.44. Near-term structure is negative and keeps the risk of extension below 101.20, Fibonacci 76.4% / 100SMA and psychological 100.00 support, for retest of key near-term support and **** at 100.70 zone. Corrective actions, however, are expected to interrupt bears, with initial barrier at 102.00, lower platform / 50% of 102.69/101.37 descend, ahead of 102.20, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Only break above 102.39, 14 Feb lower top / daily 20SMA, would improve near-term structure and shift focus towards 102.69 peak.

Res: 102.00; 102.39; 102.69; 102.92

Sup: 101.70; 101.37; 101.20; 101.00

The pair holds positive near-term tone, as rally from 0.8926, 13 Feb low, reached 0.9068, fully retracing corrective 0.9066/0.8926 phase. Positive near-term technicals are supportive for renewed attempt at key near-term barrier and breakpoint at 0.9084, 13 Jan high, clearance of which to complete 0.9084/0.8658 bear-phase and confirm **** for possible stronger recovery. Break higher to open 0.9100, ahead of 0.9149, 100SMA and 0.9165, 10 Dec 2013 high. Corrective actions face good support at 0.9000 zone, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8926/0.9068 upleg, with stronger pullback required to hold above strong 0.89 support zone, higher **** and Fibonacci 38.2% of entire recovery rally from 0.8658 to 0.9068.

Res: 0.9068; 0.9084; 0.9100; 0.9149

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8964; 0.8926; 0.8900

The Euro remains in consolidative sideways mode around 1.37 handle, confirmed by yesterday’s Doji candle. The price action moves within 1.3690/1.3723 range, with neutral tone prevailing on hourly studies. On the other side, bullish 4-hour structure keeps the upside favored for fresh extension through pivotal 1.3738 peak, to resume larger uptrend off 1.3480 zone, towards targets at 1.3765, Fibonacci 100 expansion of the wave from 1.3561 and previous congestion tops at 1.38 zone in extension. The downside is for now protected by hourly 55SMA, with possible further easing required to hold above 1.3660, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3561/1.3723 upleg / bull-trendline off 1.3482, to keep near-term bulls intact.

Res: 1.3723; 1.3738; 1.3765; 1.3800

Sup: 1.3690; 1.3660; 1.3620; 1.3600

The pair enters corrective phase after fresh bulls cracked 1.68 barrier and peaked at 1.6821, levels last time visited in Nov 2009. Corrective easing probed 1.67 handle, with dips being so far contained by hourly 55SMA. Hourly indicators are reversing higher, while positive 4-hour studies maintain overall bullish tone. However, further easing through 1.6670, previous peaks and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6424/1.6821, would keep near-term bulls in play, while the price holds above 1.66 handle, 38.2% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 rally. Extension above 1.6821 opens next targets at 1.6877, Nov 2009 peak and 1.6900, break of which to bring psychological 1.7000 resistance in focus.

Res: 1.6800; 1.6821; 1.6877; 1.6900

Sup: 1.6694; 1.6670; 1.6620; 1.6600

The price accelerated higher from 101.75 higher low and fully retraced 102.69/101.37 descend on extension to 102.73 so far. This sidelines downside risk and turns near-term focus higher, as 4-hour indicators are breaking into positive territory. Sustained break above 102.70 is required to confirm higher low at 101.75 and resume recovery off 100.74, towards 103.09, 50% retracement of 105.43/100.74 descend and lower top of 29 Jan at 103.43 in extension. However, overbought hourly conditions suggest corrective action should precede fresh rally, with 102.20, Fibonacci 38.2% of 101.37/102.73, seen as ideal reversal point to keep fresh bulls intact. Alternatively, extension below 102 handle, round figure support / 50% retracement, is expected to neutralize bulls.

Res: 102.69; 102.92; 103.09; 103.43

Sup: 102.40; 102.20; 102.00; 101.75

The pair consolidates recent gains off 0.8926 low that peaked at 0.9079. Consolidative range is established within 0.9015 and 0.9079, with near-term term price action being near the lower boundary, following repeated upside rejection that left marginally higher high at 0.9079. Further easing below 0.9000 handle and trendline support at 0.8990 would delay immediate bulls and keep the price within larger congestion of 0.8900/0.9079 and only break below 0.8900 zone, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8658/0.9079 would neutralize. Near-term studies are losing traction and support such scenario. However, overall bullish tone sees fresh extension of recovery rally, once consolidative action is completed. Break above pivotal 0.9084 barrier to open 0.9146, 100SMA and 0.9165, 10 Dec 2013 high.

Res: 0.9079; 0.9084; 0.9146; 0.9165

Sup: 0.9013; 0.9000; 0.8984; 0.8926

The Euro consolidates recent gains that peaked at 1.3772, with acceleration lower cracking strong 1.3690 support, higher platform and bull-trendline off 1.3482, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA. Fresh slide weakened hourly structure, however, larger picture bulls will remain in play, while pivotal 1.3690 support holds. Break lower to trigger stronger correction and mark near-term top at 1.3772 that would keep upside targets at 1.3800/30 on hold. Otherwise, fresh attempt higher would remain in near-term agenda.

Res: 1.3723; 1.3761; 1.3772; 1.3800

Sup: 1.3690; 1.3666; 1.3642; 1.3613

Cable’s corrective pullback off fresh high at 1.6821, posted on 17 Feb, attempts to stabilize above important 1.6600, where Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 upleg, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA / daily Tenkan-sen line, offer solid support. However, caution is required, as hourly indicators are in the negative territory and downside risk expected to remain in play while near-term consolidation range tops at 1.6740 cap. Clear break here to bring bulls back in play and signal **** formation. Conversely, deeper correction could be expected on a break below 1.66 handle, loss of which to open 1.6536, 50% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 and psychological 1.6500 support in extension.

Res: 1.6694; 1.6740; 1.6800; 1.6821

Sup: 1.6635; 1.6600; 1.6536; 1.6500

The pair remains at the back foot, as upside rejection at 102.73 triggered fresh weakness below important 102 support. Corrective rally left lower top at 102.45, confirming reversal, as the price slide below previous low at 101.84, aiming towards trendline support at 101.62, en-route towards key near-term level at 101.37, 17 Feb low, reinforced by 100SMA. Negative hourly studies and 4-hour chart indicators sliding below the midlines, support the notion. Break below 101.37 to complete near-term corrective phase, confirm double-top formation and signal resumption of broader downtrend from 105.43, 02 Jan peak, towards 100.16, 200SMA and psychological 100 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 96.55/105.43 rally. To avert immediate downside risk, regain of strong 102.69/73 peaks is required.

Res: 102.00; 102.45; 102.73; 102.92

Sup: 101.62; 101.37; 101.00; 100.42

The pair came under pressure as consolidative action off 0.9079 peak broke under trendline support at 0.9000 and fresh easing nearly fully retraced 0.8926/0.9079 upleg on a dip to 0.8935 so far. Negative tone is re-established on a lower timeframes studies that keeps the downside at risk. Break below initial 0.8900 zone support, higher platform and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8658/0.9079 ascend, would be seen as a trigger for stronger pullback, with 0.8870, 50% retracement and 0.8820, Fibonacci 61.8%, seen as next targets. Otherwise, extended consolidation above 0.8900 handle, would be likely near-term scenario. Overall picture remain bullish for now and keeps upside attempts in the near-term favored.

Res: 0.8978; 0.9011; 0.9043; 0.9079

Sup: 0.8935; 0.8926; 0.8900; 0.8870

The Euro Remains steady and continues to move above bull-trendline off 1.3482, after last week’s fall found ground on strong 1.3700/1.3690 support zone. Friday’s inside day candle suggests further upside, as fresh strength aims towards initial targets at 1.3756/61, 21/20 Feb highs, ahead of key near-term hurdle at 1.3772, 19 Feb high. Overnight’s consolidation above 1.37 handle and fresh extension higher, keeps near-term bulls in play, with technicals on lower timeframes maintaining positive tone. Break above 1.3772 to complete 1.3772/1.3685 corrective phase and open way towards 1.3800/30 and 1.3892, 27 Dec 2013 peak in extension, regain of which to complete larger corrective phase from 1.3892 to 1.3475. Initial support lies at 1.3727, ahead of 1.3700 and pivotal 1.3685 platform, loss of which would be bearish.

Res: 1.3756; 1.3761; 1.3772; 1.3800

Sup: 1.3727; 1.3700; 1.3685; 1.3661

Cable remains in near-term descend off fresh peak at 1.6821, approaching important 1.66 support, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 upleg, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA and daily Tenkan-sen line. Loss of 1.66 handle is required to confirm reversal and trigger stronger pullback, which will put near-term bulls on hold and open 1.6536, 50% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 and psychological 1.6500 support in extension. Hourly studies are weak, while 4-hour indicators are breaking into negative territory that supports negative scenario. Alternatively, ability to hold above 1.66 handle would keep the pair protected from immediate risk of further easing, with consolidative phase seen preceding fresh attempt higher, as daily bulls remain in play and 1.66 handle seen as ideal reversal point. Regain of near-term breakpoints at 1.6723/40, is required to bring bulls back in play.

Res: 1.6654; 1.6700; 1.6723; 1.6740

Sup: 1.6610; 1.6600; 1.6536; 1.6500

Near-term bulls lost traction after brief break above key 102.69/73 barrier, as the price stalled at 102.82 and subsequent pullback pressures psychological / Fibonacci 50% / daily Tenkan-sen line support at 102.00. With hourly indicators sliding into negative territory, downside risk will remain in play in the near-term. Loss of 102 handle is required to confirm. On the other side, 4-hour studies hold positive tone that sees the upside in focus while the price holds above 102 support and 101.77, bull-trendline off 100.74. Larger picture, however, is neutral, as studies are mixed and price action entrenched within 101.37/102.82 range, with break of either side to define direction.

Res: 102.45; 102.67; 102.82; 103.09

Sup: 102.15; 102.00; 101.77; 101.37

Near-term structure is negative, as the price’s recovery from 0.8935 failed to sustain gains above psychological 0.9000 barrier and subsequent easing fully reversed 0.8935/0.9021 rally. The downside is for now protected by daily cloud ****, however, negatively aligned near-term studies would keep the downside at risk while the price remains capped under 0.9000, daily Tenkan-sen line and 0.9021, 20 Feb peak, break of which is required to bring fresh bulls in play and signal double-bottom formation. Otherwise, violation of strong 0.8930/00 support zone, would spark resumption of reversal from 0.9079, 18 Feb peak.

Res: 0.8986; 0.9000; 0.9021; 0.9043

Sup: 0.8935; 0.8926; 0.8900; 0.8870

The Euro remains unchanged, as near-term price action holds within 1.3700/70 range, trading in directionless mode. Consolidation is expected to precede fresh leg higher, as overall tone remains positive, as the price moves along with bull-trendline drawn off 1.3482 low. Formation of bullish pennant is shown on 4-hour chart, with break above recent congestion tops and trendline resistance, required to complete the pattern and open next targets at 1.3800/30. Trendline support lies at 1.3726, ahead of breakpoints at 1.3700/85, loss of which will be bearish.

Res: 1.3772; 1.3800; 1.3815; 1.3831

Sup: 1.3726; 1.3700; 1.3685; 1.3661

Cable improved near-term structure on extension of recovery rally from fresh low at 1.6582, which cracked psychological 1.6700 barrier and peaked at 1.6725, where the pair ran out of steam. Stall ahead of 1.6740 breakpoint and subsequent pullback to 1.6660, where the price attempts to stabilize above hourly 55SMA, keeps the downside risk in play, as hourly studies are losing momentum. Slide below 1.660 and yesterday’s spike low at 1.6640, would bring important 1.66 support in near-term focus, with violation of the latter to signal fresh extension of pullback from 1.6821 peak. Conversely, attempt to build near-term ****, requires bounce through 1.6700 barrier to avert immediate downside risk and open 1.6725/40 hurdles for test. Studies on 4-hour chart are in neutral mode, with break of either side, required to define near-term direction.

Res: 1.6700; 1.6725; 1.6740; 1.6800

Sup: 1.6660; 1.6640; 1.6600; 1.6582

Near-term price action is at the back foot, as reversal from 102.82, 21 Feb peak, extended and cracked psychological / trendline support at 102 zone. Hourly studies are improving, as bounce from fresh low at 101.99 reached mid-point of 102.82/101.99 descend at 102.40, however, regain of lower platform at 102.60 is required to confirm reversal and bottom formation. Otherwise, risk of renewed attempt lower and clear break below 102 handle would further weaken near-term structure and open lower boundaries of two-week range, also daily cloud ****, for test.

Res: 102.40; 102.61; 102.82; 103.09

Sup: 102.24; 102.00; 101.57; 101.37

The pair shows no significant changes, as near-term price action remains within 0.8935/0.9079 range, with the price holding at the upper part of the range, following yesterday’s dip to 0.8967 and quick recovery that attempts to stabilize above 0.9000 handle. Hourly technicals are still weak, with downside risk remaining in play. Loss of 0.9000 handle to shift near-term focus towards the lower limits, with 50% and 61.8% retracement levels of 0.8937/0.9048 rally at 0.8993 and 0.8979, seen as next supports, ahead of yesterday’s spike low at 0.8967, loss of which to re-open range floor at 0.8935. On the upside, pivotal resistance lies at 0.9048, clearance of which to expose recent peak and range top at 0.9079.

Res: 0.9024; 0.9048; 0.9079; 0.9100

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8979; 0.8967; 0.8935