Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

0700 , analysis , brokers , gmt , majors , short , technical , term , windsor

Lack of action again for the euro as we see another day of trading within a narrow 40 pip range. Previous Resistance and support levels still hold as they were not even tested during the last two sessions. We can currently safely say that EURUSD ended its upward trend on the 1 hour chart and now is stuck in a range between 1.3940 and 1.3800.

Res: 1.3940, 1.3970, 1.4015

Sup: 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3720

Sterling manages to continue the current downtrend on the 1 hour chart by breaking another support level at 1.6620. It achieved a new low at 1.6595. We have downward signals from the momentum indicators MACD and Momentum (22) plus prices are currently below exponential moving average 55 and the Ichimoku Cloud

Res: 1.6650, 1.6685, 1.6730,

Sup: 1.6580, 1.6540, 1.6580

We saw an almost 60 pip drop for the USDJPY during the previous and current session however it failed twice to break current support of 102.80. It currently trading close to that level and testing it for the third time. If it does manage to break it this will open the way for 102.25 & 101.70. However a rise above 103.75 will reverse our outlook

Res: 103.75, 104, 104.35

Sup: 102.80, 102.25, 101.70

Strong upward action from Gold as we saw it break important resistance level 1354 and continue its rise to test 1362. This was the third attempt at breaking 1354, the previous two failed attempts happened on 6th and 3rd of this month. Because of this we will safely say that gold broke out of its range trading mode and we have an upward trend now on the 1 hour chart

Res: 1362, 1375, 1388

Sup: 1337, 1330, 1322,

After 3 trading sessions of narrow trading we finally see EURUSD attempt to make a move. Its currently testing 1.3940 resistance after it successfully broke above previous trend high 1.3915. It’s trading at prices not seen since October 2011. If it does manage to break this resistance it will open the way for 1.3970 and 1.4015. On the H1 we have an uptrend

Res: 1.3940, 1.3970, 1.4015

Sup: 1.3850 1.3800, 1.3750

Today’s rise of almost 70 pips can be considered a reversal of the downtrend on the 1 hour chart for two reasons. First we see the formation of an upside-down head and shoulders pattern and a rise above the 55 exponential moving average. After failing to continue to the previous downtrend, it found support at 1.6580 went up and broke 1.6650 plus tested 1.6685

Res: 1.6685, 1.6730, 1.6780

Sup: 1.6620 1.6580, 1.6540,

After two past failed attempts at breaking 102.80, USDJPY finally was successful in the third try achieving a new low at 102.50 for the current downtrend on the 1 hour chart. It is currently trading close to that low attempting to break it for the second time. Next target is at 102.25

Res: 103.15. 103.75, 104,

Sup: 102.25, 101.70, 101.20

Gold remains strong breaking another resistance level 1362 continuing its uptrend on all time frames. It also tested 1375 resistance. However it’s important to note that on the 4 hour and daily chart RSI(14) is currently above the 70 level which could indicate prices are too high due to overbought conditions. Important thing to note also on the daily chart is that we saw a daily candle close above 1362 which was the high of 28.10.2013.

Res: 1375, 1388, 1400

Sup: 1355, 1345, 1337

The Euro continues to trend higher within daily channel off 1.3475 ****. Near term focus remains at psychological 1.4000 barrier, as the approached the target on extension to 1.3965, seen on 13 Mar. The price action consolidates under the recent top, with downside being so far protected at 1.3840 zone, where 4-hour 55SMA / daily Tenkan-sen line and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3642/1.3965 upleg, offer good support. Near-term action moves around 1.39 handle, following last Friday’s upside rejection at 1.3936 and weekly close at 1.39 zone. Hourly studies are losing traction that suggests further consolidation, as 4-hour indicators are in descending mode. However, holding above 1.3840/00 supports zone, would keep overall positive tone and single currency’s stability intact for eventual attack at 1.4000 barrier, break of which to open next targets at 1.4056, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of the third wave from 1.3672 and psychological 1.4100 hurdle in extension. Conversely, extension below 1.38 handle, 50% retracement and near channel support, would signal stronger pullback and put near-term bulls on hold.

Res: 1.3939; 1.3965; 1.4000; 1.4056

Sup: 1.3876; 1.3840; 1.3800; 1.3765

Cable remains in near-term sideways mode, with price action attempting at the range’s lower boundary, as initial support at 1.6582 was cracked last week on extension to 1.6566. Near-term studies are negatively aligned, with price holding near 1.66 handle, also 38.2% retracement of larger 1.6250/1.6821 ascend, with hourly tone being neutral but 4-hour structure bearish. With downside risk increased, immediate focus lies at lowered range floor at 1.6566, below which to open 1.6536, 50% retracement and psychological 1.6500 support in extension and signal stronger correction of larger upleg from 1.5853 to 1.6821. Otherwise, extended sideways trading would be likely near-term scenario, with regain of lower top at 1.6716, required to improve the structure and shift focus higher.

Res: 1.6650; 1.6700; 1.6716; 1.6740

Sup: 1.6624; 1.6585; 1.6566; 1.6536

The pair fully retraced near-term rally from 101.19 to 103.75 on last week’s fresh acceleration lower. Near-term price action moves in a consolidative mode above fresh low at 101.20, as hourly indicators are heading north and 4-hour studies coming out of oversold territory. This would signal extended consolidative / corrective action, however, not much of the upside prospective is seen for now, as larger picture remain bearish. Ideally, rallies should be capped under 102.50, midpoint of 103.75/101.20 descend, to keep bears intact. Break below 101.20 handle to open another significant support at 100.74, 03/05 Feb **** and psychological 100 support in extension.

Res: 101.85; 102.17; 102.50; 102.80

Sup: 101.20; 101.00; 100.74; 100.00

The pair trades in a choppy mode, with near-term structure being positive, as the holds above near-term **** at 0.9000, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Fresh bounce attempts at pivotal 0.9100/32 barriers, break of which to resume recovery rally from 0.8658, 24 Jan low, which is interrupted by current consolidation. Clearance of 0.9132 opens 0.9135, 10 Dec 2013 high and 0.9206, 50% retracement of larger 0.9755/0.8658 descend. Increased downside risk could be expected on a loss of 0.9000 handle.

Res: 0.9100; 0.9132; 0.9165; 0.9206

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8923; 0.8900; 0.8832

The Euro holds positive sentiment and bounced off 1.3840 higher ****, to test levels close to fresh high at 1.3965, posted on 13 Mar. Near-term price action moves in triangular consolidation, after recovery rally stalled at 1.3946 yesterday. Triangle support lies at 1.3910, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3844/1.3946 ascend, ahead of higher **** at 1.3880, also 61.8% retracement, above which stronger pullbacks should find ground to keep near-term positive tone in play. Fresh attempt through 1.3965 opens short-term target and psychological barrier at 1.4000 and 1.4056, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion of the wave from 1.3642, in extension. Conversely, slide below 1.3880 would delay bulls and risk retest of near-term **** at 1.3840 zone and daily channel support at 1.3800.

Res: 1.3946; 1.3965; 1.4000; 1.4056

Sup: 1.3910; 1.3880; 1.3840; 1.3800

Cable remains in near-term sideways mode, with price action attempting at the range’s lower boundary, as recovery attempts were capped at 1.6664, keeping immediate barriers at 1.6700/16 intact for now. Near-term studies are negatively aligned, with fresh acceleration lower, attempting below psychological 1.66 handle. Immediate focus lies at lowered range floor at 1.6566, below which to open 1.6536, 50% retracement and psychological 1.6500 support in extension and signal stronger correction of larger upleg from 1.5853 to 1.6821. Otherwise, holding above 1.6566, would signal extended sideways trading and only regain of pivotal 1.6716 barrier, to improve the structure and shift focus higher.

Res: 1.6664; 1.6700; 1.6716; 1.6740

Sup: 1.6566; 1.6536; 1.6500; 1.6451

Near-term price action moves in a consolidative mode above fresh low at 101.19, after the pair fully retraced 101.19/103.75 upleg. Hourly studies turned positive, as the price approached psychological 102 barrier, where gains were capped by 4-hour 20SMA for now. On the other side, negative 4-hour studies see the action limited. Ideally, rallies should be capped under 102.50, midpoint of 103.75/101.20 descend, to keep bears intact. Break below 101.19 handle is required to open another significant support at 100.74, 03/05 Feb **** and psychological 100 support in extension. Only break above 102.50 and 102.80, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 103.75/101.19 would improve near-term structure.

Res: 101.93; 102.17; 102.50; 102.80

Sup: 101.50; 101.20; 101.00; 100.74

The pair trades in a choppy mode, with near-term structure being positive, as the price stabilizes above near-term **** at 0.9000, reinforced by daily 20SMA / Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bull cross. Fresh bounce cracked psychological 0.9100 barrier in attempt at pivotal 0.9132 resistance, break of which to resume recovery rally from 0.8658, 24 Jan low, which is interrupted by current consolidation. Clearance of 0.9132 opens 0.9165, 10 Dec 2013 high and 0.9206, 50% retracement of larger 0.9755/0.8658 descend. Initial support lies at 0.9060, hourly 55SMA, while only loss of 0.9000 **** would increase downside pressure and signal double-top formation.

Res: 0.9108; 0.9132; 0.9165; 0.9206

Sup: 0.9060; 0.9000; 0.8923; 0.8900

The Euro showed limited action during past few sessions, with price action moving within narrow 1.3880/1.3940 range, awaiting today’s FOMC decision. Hourly tone is neutral, as the price forms bullish pennant, while larger pictures maintain positive tone and favor eventual push towards short-term target at 1.4000. Recent range tops, along with bear-trendline off 1.3965, offer initial resistance, ahead of fresh high at 1.3965 and psychological 1.4000 barrier, also daily channel resistance. Break here to resume larger uptrend, interrupted by 1.3965/1.3840 corrective phase and expose next targets at 1.4056, double-Fibonacci resistance 138.2% expansion of the third wave from 1.3642 and 138.2% projection of the downmove from 1.3892 to 1.3475. Narrowed range floor at 1.3880 offers immediate support, ahead of the first pivot at 1.3840 higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3642/1.3965 upleg and only break here would sideline near-term bulls in favor of deeper pullback towards 1.3800, 50% retracement / channel support; 1.3765, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3642/1.3965 rally and 1.3700, higher **** / round-figure support / 76.4% retracement.

Res: 1.3946; 1.3965; 1.4000; 1.4056

Sup: 1.3900; 1.3880; 1.3840; 1.3800

Cable came under pressure and ended the second day in red, after fresh weakness broke below near-term range floor, to post fresh low at 1.6544, where daily 55SMA contained dips for now. Weak near-term studies favor further downside, with psychological 1.6500 support, also daily Ichimoku cloud top coming next, ahead of 1.6451, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 1.5853/1.6821 ascend. Corrective rallies are expected to precede fresh leg lower, with regain of 1.66 handle expected to open 1.6646/64 barriers, where rallies should be ideally contained. Pivotal resistance lies at 1.6716, 13 Mar peak and only break here to improve near-term structure.

Res: 1.6608; 1.6646; 1.6664; 1.6700

Sup: 1.6544; 1.6500; 1.6451; 1.6400

Near-term price action moves in a consolidative mode above fresh low at 101.19, after the pair fully retraced 101.19/103.75 upleg. Near-term tone remains weak, as recovery attempts were capped under psychological 102 barrier, with descending 4-hour SMA limiting the upside for now and bull-trendline off 100.74 low being cracked. Break below 101.19 handle is required to open another significant support at 100.74, 03/05 Feb **** and psychological 100 support in extension. Only break above 102.50 and 102.80, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 103.75/101.19 would improve near-term structure.

Res: 101.93; 102.17; 102.50; 102.80

Sup: 101.29; 101.19; 101.00; 100.74

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and eventually broke above psychological 0.9100 barrier, to crack key near-term resistance and pivotal point at 0.9132, on extension to 0.9137 so far. Positive near-term technicals keep the upside favored, with clear break above of 0.9132 barrier, expected to open 0.9151, 200SMA; 0.9165, 10 Dec 2013 high and 0.9206, 50% retracement of larger 0.9755/0.8658 descend. Corrective dips would face initial support at 0.91 zone, also hourly 55SMA and higher low at 0.9062, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8923/0.9137, seen as ideal reversal point to keep bulls intact.

Res: 0.9137; 0.9151; 0.9165; 0.9206

Sup: 0.9100; 0.9060; 0.9030; 0.9000

The Euro ended week in red after rallying for six consecutive weeks, trading in corrective phase off fresh 4 ½ month high at 1.3965. The pullback found temporary footstep at 1.3748, with consolidative action so far being capped by hourly 55SMA / daily Kijun-sen line at 1.38 zone, also near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.3923/1.3748 fall. Hourly studies are gaining traction, however, limited upside action is seen for now, as 4-hour structure remain negative, with 1.3840/50 zone, lower top of 20 Mar and Fibonacci 61.8%, expected to ideally cap, before fresh leg lower commences. Extension below 1.3748 to open 1.3720, double Fibonacci / 04/06 Mar higher platform and psychological 1.3700 support in extension. Alternatively, fresh strength through 1.3850 and regain of 1.39 handle, would bring bulls back in play and signal an end of corrective phase, with 1.3965 peak and short-term target at 1.4000, expected to come in near-term focus.

Res: 1.3809; 1.3840; 1.3856; 1.3882

Sup: 1.3785; 1.3764; 1.3748; 1.3720

Cable remains under pressure, with Friday’s close under psychological 1.65 barrier and the second week’s close in red, confirming negative structure and seeing risk of further weakness. Last Friday / overnight lows at 1.6470, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6250/1.6821 upleg, where the pair attempts to consolidate, are coming under pressure, as near-term studies maintain negative tone. Break here to open next target at 1.6451, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 1.5853/1.6821 ascend, 100SMA at 1.6417 psychological 1.6400 support in extension. On the upside, consolidation top at 1.6517, offers initial resistance, with 20 mar lower top at 1.6466 coming next and any stronger rally expected to be capped at 1.66 zone, near 38.2% of 1.6784/1.6471 downleg.

Res: 1.6517; 1.6543; 1.6566; 1.6600

Sup: 1.6471; 1.6451; 1.6400; 1.6385

Near-term price action remains supported, as corrective pullback off recovery high at 102.67, was contained at 102 handle, also 4-hour 20/55 SMA’s bull-cross and fresh strength attempts at 102.67 peak, reinforced by daily 55SMA. Positive near-term studies keep the upside favored, with break above 102.67 to open 103 barrier, psychological resistance, reinforced by daily cloud top, ahead of key near-term resistance at 103.75, 07 Mar peak. Conversely, increased downside risk could be expected in case of violation of 102 handle.

Res: 102.67; 102.80; 103.09; 103.42

Sup: 102.35; 102.00; 101.80; 101.50

The pair trades within 0.9047 and 0.91 range, following overnight’s 0.90101/0.9047 pullback and bounce higher. Psychological 0.91 barrier is under pressure, with positive near-term studies favoring break higher to resume near-term recovery phase off 0.8994, 20 Mar higher low and open key barriers and congestion tops at 0.9132/37, reinforced by 200SMA. Break here is required to signal resumption of larger uptrend from 0.8889 and open 0.9135, 10 Dec 2013 peak and 0.9206, 50% retracement of 0.9755/0.8658 descend. Strong support and higher **** at 0.9000 should keep the downside protected to keep near-term bulls in play.

Res: 0.9100; 0.9137; 0.9165; 0.9206

Sup: 0.9047; 0.9000; 0.8975; 0.8935