Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

0700 , analysis , brokers , gmt , majors , short , technical , term , windsor

The Euro gains negative momentum and attempts at the lower boundary of week-long range trading. Yesterday’s failure to sustain recovery attempt above initial 1.38 support, triggered fresh weakness, as broken bull-trendline off previous 15 Apr low at 1.3789, capped the rally. Negative tone is establishing on near-term studies and keeps the downside pressured, with clear break below 1.3789 range’s lowest point, required to confirm lower top at yesterday’s 1.3829 peak and resume the third wave off 1.3729, towards its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3769 and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3671/1.3904 at 1.3760, also broken bear-trendline, drawn off 1.3965, 13 Mar peak. Acceleration lower to confirm bears fully in play and open way towards 1.3730/20, main bull-trendline off 1.3475, 03 Feb low / daily Ichimoku cloud **** and psychological 1.3700 support. Previous support at 1.38 zone, now offers initial resistance, ahead of 1.3829, yesterday’s high and above 50% of 1.3863/1.3784 descend, with alternative scenario requiring break here to sideline immediate bears.

Res: 1.3800; 1.3815; 1.3829; 1.3850

Sup: 1.3760; 1.3726; 1.3700; 1.3671

Cable trades in consolidative mode after probing levels above short-term congestion tops at 1.6820 and posting fresh multi-year high at 1.6841. Hourly tone remains neutral, after the price found footstep at 1.6773 and trades within narrow range. On the other side, positive 4-hour studies see the upside favored, with eventual break above 1.6841 peak, required to resume larger rally and avert risk of deeper reversal, signaled by bearish MACD / RSI divergence. Break above 1.6841 to open 1.6877, November 2009 peak and 1.6900, round figure resistance in extension. Conversely, break below 1.67 higher **** and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6464/1.6841 upleg, would revive near-term bears and signal reversal scenario.

Res: 1.6821; 1.6841; 1.6877; 1.6900

Sup: 1.6773; 1.6750; 1.6720; 1.6700

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and continues to move higher, as extension from 101.85 higher low penetrated daily cloud **** and so far tested 102.71, 50% retracement of 104.11/101.31. Further advance remains favored, with next barriers laying at 102.89, 100SMA and 103 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily cloud top, clearance of which to re-confirm 101.20/30 **** and resume rally from 101.31, 11 Apr low. Bullish 20/55SMA’s crossover at 102.20 zone, where corrective dips should ideally find support, underpins the action, while only reversal below 101.85 higher low and Fibonacci 61.8% of 101.31/102.71 upleg, would bring near-term bears back in play and risk retest of 101.20 ****. Negatively aligned daily studies would keep the downside at risk while 103 barrier caps recovery attempts.

Res: 102.71; 102.89; 103.00; 103.29

Sup: 102.20; 102.00; 101.85; 101.50

The pair trades in near-term corrective mode off fresh high at 0.9460, with fresh acceleration higher seen off 0.9314 low. The rally retraced nearly 38.2% of 0.9460/0.9314 reversal, with hourly studies turning positive. However, risk of lower top formation and fresh weakness would remain in play, as long as the price holds below initial 0.9389 lower top of 17 Apr and 50% retracement, with negatively aligned 4-hour technicals supporting the notion. Clear break above 0.9389 and psychological 0.9400 barrier, is required to bring bulls fully in play and signal higher low formation for eventual push towards key near-term barrier at 0.9460. Bullish daily studies favor this scenario and only loss of 0.9300 breakpoint would delay bulls.

Res: 0.9370; 0.9390; 0.9424; 0.9460

Sup: 0.9345; 0.9315; 0.9300; 0.9253

Spot Gold maintains negative tone, as fresh extension lower posted new low at 1281, above which near-term consolidation is under way. Fresh bears are looking for final push to key 1277 support, 01 Apr low, break of which to complete 1277/1330 upleg and signal fresh extension of larger downtrend from 1392, 17 Mar peak, as well as confirm lower top formation at 1330. Prevailing bearish tone on lower and larger timeframes, supports scenario. Initial resistances lay at 1293 and 1300, while sustained break above recent consolidation tops at 1304, would avert immediate downside risk.

Res: 1293; 1300; 1304; 1308

Sup: 1281; 1277; 1262; 1250

Spot Silver remains directionless after unsuccessful attempts at the both sides of near-term range. Hourly studies are flat, however, positive tone persists on 4-hour chart that keeps hopes of renewed attempts higher, where 20.37, 10 Apr rally peak and 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend, offer initial barriers and pivotal points. Sustained break here is required to signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, downside will remain at risk, as larger picture studies remain bearish and risk further weakness for completion of 18.99/22.15 ascend, with the notion being supported by triple MA’s bear-crosses, 20/200SMA’s death-cross and 20/55 / 20/100 SMA’s bearish crosses.

Res: 20.12; 20.19; 20.37; 20.40

Sup: 19.90; 19.77; 19.60; 19.56

The single currency bounced after yesterday’s attempt at near-term range floor left marginally lower low at 1.3784. Cracking important resistance at 1.3830, 21 Apr high / main bear-trendline off 1.3904 peak / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3863/1.3784 downleg, confirms **** at 1.3790 zone and brings the price back to the range. Improved hourly structure sees potential for eventual push towards 1.3863, 17 Apr lower top and range top, regain of which to confirm double-bottom formation on 4-hour chart and re-focus key near-term barrier at 1.3904, 11 Apr peak. However, still weak 4-hour studies require caution and keep in play risk of possible stall and lower top formation under 1.3904. Corrective pullbacks off fresh highs should not exceed 1.38 support, to keep freshly established near-term bulls in play.

Res: 1.3850; 1.3863; 1.3904; 1.3941

Sup: 1.3800; 1.3784; 1.3760; 1.3736

Cable trades in consolidative mode after probing levels above short-term congestion tops at 1.6820 and posting fresh multi-year high at 1.6841. Positive near-term tone keeps the upside in focus, as the price attempted again at the recent peak. Also, positive 4-hour studies support the notion, with eventual break above 1.6841 peak, required to resume larger rally and avert risk of deeper reversal, signaled by bearish MACD / RSI divergence formation. Break above 1.6841 to open 1.6877, November 2009 peak and 1.6900, round figure resistance in extension. Conversely, extension below initial support and consolidation floor at 1.6773, would signal corrective action, while only break below 1.67 higher **** and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6464/1.6841 upleg, would revive near-term bears for stronger pullback.

Res: 1.6841; 1.6877; 1.6900; 1.6950

Sup: 1.6773; 1.6750; 1.6720; 1.6700

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates recent gains after extension from 101.85 higher low, so far tested 102.71, 50% retracement of 104.11/101.31. Further advance remains favored, with next barriers laying at 102.89, 100SMA and 103 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily cloud top, clearance of which to re-confirm 101.20/30 **** and resume rally from 101.31, 11 Apr low. Bullish 20/55SMA’s crossover at 102.20 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.32/102.71 upleg, underpins the action and is seen as ideal reversal point in case of stronger pullback. Only loss of 101.85 higher low and Fibonacci 61.8% of 101.31/102.71 upleg, would bring near-term bears back in play and risk retest of 101.20 ****. Negatively aligned daily studies would keep the downside at risk while 103 barrier caps recovery attempts.

Res: 102.71; 102.89; 103.00; 103.29

Sup: 102.40; 102.20; 102.00; 101.85

The price accelerated reversal off 0.9460 peak after leaving lower top at 0.9377 and lost pivotal 0.9300 support, on a dip to 0.9272 so far. As hourly studies turned negative and 4-hour indicators remain in the negative territory, downside risk remains in play. Extension to the next strong support and breakpoint at 0.92 zone, 03 Apr higher low, reinforced by main bull-trendline, drawn off 0.8658, is seen as likely near-term scenario. Reversing daily indicators support the notion of deeper corrective action, as a part of larger uptrend from 0.8658, 19 Jan year-to-date low. Corrective rallies on oversold hourly conditions face initial 0.9300 barrier, ahead of previous consolidation floor at 0.9315, with extensions higher to be ideally capped under 0.9340, 61.8% of the fall from 0.9375, to keep bears intact. Upside pivot lies at 0.9375 and only break here to neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 0.9300; 0.9315; 0.9340; 0.9375

Sup: 0.9273; 0.9253; 0.9200; 0.9150

Spot Gold eventually cracked important 1277 support, 1 Apr low / 100SMA and fully retraced bull-phase off 1277 that peaked at 1330. Clear break lower is required to confirm lower top at 1330, 14 Apr high and signal resumption of larger downtrend from 1392, 17 Mar peak. According to the wave principles, the third wave that commenced from 1330, could extend to its 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1258, just under Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1182/1392 ascend at 1262 and could travel to 1212, its 100% expansion. Negative tone prevails on all timeframes and keeps the downside favored in the near-term. Corrective actions should be ideally limited under 1300, psychological barrier and 20/200SMA’s death cross.

Res: 1288; 1293; 1300; 1306

Sup: 1276; 1262; 1258; 1240

Spot Silver remains directionless after unsuccessful attempts at the both sides of near-term range. Hourly studies are flat, however, positive tone persists on 4-hour chart that keeps hopes of renewed attempts higher, where 20.37, 10 Apr rally peak and 20.40, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 21.77/19.56 descend, offer initial barriers and pivotal points. Sustained break here is required to signal stronger recovery. Otherwise, downside will remain at risk, as larger picture studies remain bearish and risk further weakness for completion of 18.99/22.15 ascend, with the notion being supported by triple MA’s bear-crosses, 20/200SMA’s death-cross and 20/55 / 20/100 SMA’s bearish crosses.

Res: 20.12; 20.19; 20.37; 20.40

Sup: 19.90; 19.77; 19.60; 19.56

Res: 1.3800; 1.3840; 1.3868; 1.3900

Sup: 1.3744; 1.3720; 1.3700, 1.3670

Cable stalled on approach to psychological 1.7000 barrier and pulled back to 1.6830 zone, triggering daily and weekly close in red and signaling possible stronger pullback in larger bull-trend. Reversal was so far contained by daily 20SMA and just above previous peaks, keeping overall bulls so far intact and marking current easing a technical pullback, before fresh attempts higher. On the other side, negative near-term studies and daily indicators in descending mode from overbought territory, keep the downside risk in play. Confirmation of negative scenario, however, requires clear break below higher platform at 1.6760 zone, to confirm. Otherwise, the upside targets will remain in near-term focus, with regain of 1.69 handle, required to confirm bulls back in play.

Res: 1.6900; 1.6918; 1.6973; 1.6995

Sup: 1.6800; 1.6760; 1.6730; 1.6700

The pair closed below 102 barrier, marking weekly close in negative tone, with daily indicators in negative zone, maintaining downside risk on the larger picture. On the other side, lower timeframes studies hold neutral stance, after near-term price action stabilized above 101.20, short-term ****, averting immediate risk of violation of strong 101.20 / 100.74 support, in favor of extended consolidation. Gains so far hold below 102 resistance, keeping sideways mode in play, despite improved hourly studies. Only sustained break above 102 barrier and lower top at 102.18, to signal double-bottom formation and fresh recovery attempt.

Res: 102.00; 102.18; 102.40; 102.78

Sup: 101.42; 101.31; 101.20; 101.00

The Aussie holds positive near-term tone against the greenback, as bounce from 0.92 **** retraced nearly 76.4% of the pullback from 0.9460 to 0.9204. Daily cup-and-holder pattern is nearly completed, with clear break above 0.9380 required to confirm and open way for final push towards key 0.9460 barrier, 10 Apr high. The overall picture remains bullish, as near-term price action is underpinned by double bull-cross at 0.9150 zone; 20/200 and 55/200SMA’s. Break above 0.9460 top to confirm bullish resumption and open psychological 0.95 barrier next. Conversely, break below trendline support 0.9300 to delay, while only loss of 0.92 handle will be bearish

Res: 0.9377; 0.9393; 0.9424; 0.9460

Sup: 0.9346; 0.9317; 0.9300; 0.9250

Res: 1.3773; 1.3800; 1.3840; 1.3868

Sup: 1.3744; 1.3720; 1.3700, 1.3670

Cable remains at the back foot in the near term, after recovery attempt from fresh low at 1.6829, run out of steam at initial 1.69 barrier. Near-term technicals are negatively aligned and keep the downside at risk, while the price holds below 1.69 handle. Fresh weakness through 1.6821, previous high and psychological 1.68 support, also near 38.2% retracement of 1.6464/.6995 ascend, is required to confirm reversal and open 1.6760 higher platform and 1.6730, rally’s mid-point. Conversely, sustained break above 1.69 barrier, would bring bulls fully in play and signal an end of near-term corrective phase, for fresh attempt towards psychological 1.7000 resistance.

Res: 1.6900; 1.6932; 1.6973; 1.6995

Sup: 1.6861; 1.6829; 1.6800; 1.6760

The pair regained strength and eventually broke through 102 barrier, extending near-term recovery off 101.40 higher ****. Neat-term studies turned positive and keep further upside favored for now, with next targets laying at 102.70, mid-point of 104.11/101.31 fall/ daily cloud top and 103, range top. Clear break of the latter is required to break above 101.20/103 congestion and resume recovery. Otherwise, further range trading would likely near-term scenario. However, still negative daily studies keep the downside at risk, as long as the price remains below 103 handle.

Res: 102.40; 102.70; 103.00; 103.38

Sup: 101.42; 101.84; 101.60; 101.45

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and consolidates under fresh highs near 0.94 barrier. Recovery rally from 0.92 ****, so far retraced nearly 76.4% of the pullback from 0.9460 to 0.9204. Daily cup-and-holder pattern hasn’t been completed yet, with clear break above 0.9380 required to confirm and open way for final push towards key 0.9460 barrier, 10 Apr high. The overall picture remains bullish, as near-term price action is underpinned by double bull-cross at 0.9150 zone; 20/200 and 55/200SMA’s, however, further hesitation ahead of 0.94 hurdle cannot be ruled out, as hourly studies are losing traction, with loss of psychological / trendline support at 0.93 to further delay bulls, while only loss of 0.92 handle would revive bears. Conversely, break above 0.9460 top to confirm bullish resumption and open psychological 0.95 barrier next.

Res: 0.9365; 0.9384; 0.9393; 0.9424

Sup: 0.9317; 0.9300; 0.9250; 0.9200