Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro continues to trade sideways, awaiting Fed’s decision and holding within 1.3324/84 consolidative range. The downside is protected by hourly Ichimoku cloud and ascending 55DMA, with positively aligned near-term studies, keeping near-term bulls in play. Final push through 1.3384 peak to open 1.3400 lower platform and key 1.3450 hurdle. Alternatively, violation of the range floor, also previous high and 50% retracement of 1.3252/1.3384, would be seen as initial signal of corrective phase and expose 1.3300, Fibonacci 61.8% and strong 1.3240 higher platform and 50% of larger 1.3103/1.3384 ascend.

Res: 1.3368; 1.3384; 1.3400; 1.3450

Sup: 1.3345; 1.3324; 1.3300; 1.3283

Cable remains trades in near-term sideways mode, after pullback from 1.5961 high, found footstep at 1.5883, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5775/1.5961 upleg, with support being reinforced by 55DMA. Neutral tone prevails on hourly chart studies, while 4-hour indicators are descending from overbought territory that keeps risk of further reversal in play. Loss of 1.5883, would look for next supports at 1.5868/46, 50% and 61.8% retracement levels, with increased downside risk to be triggered in case 1.5800 and 1.5775 supports give way. Conversely, lift above near-term consolidation top at 1.5935, would open 1.5961 and focus psychological 1.6000. Overextended daily studies, however, see risk of stall ahead of 1.6000 hurdle.

Res: 1.5935; 1.5961; 1.6000; 1.6010

Sup: 1.5887; 1.5868, 1.5838; 1.5819

The pair holds neutral tone on hourly chart, as bounce from 98.44 low stays capped at 99.35, Tuesday’s high. with 99.00, now acting as immediate support. From the other side 4-hour studies are negative, with price action being capped by 55DMA that keeps the downside at risk. Failure to regain of 99.96, 13/09 lower top, would risk lower top formation and further weakness, with break below 98.44, to open way for further retracement of 96.80/100.60 ascend.

Res: 99.35; 99.52; 99.77; 99.96

Sup: 99.00; 98.63; 98.44; 98.25

The Aussie maintains positive near-term tone, as the price holds in the upper part of 0.9392/0.9284 consolidation range, with studies on the lower timeframes being positively aligned. Resumption of larger uptrend from 0.8891 requires lift above 0.9400, with important resistance zone at 0.9300/50 and short-term congestion top, already being cracked on extension to 0.9392. Immediate support lies at 0.9335, while extension below 0.9284 higher low, would increase downside risk and signal possible false break above 0.9350.

Res: 0.9366; 0.9392; 0.9400; 0.9430

Sup: 0.9335; 0.9284; 0.9265; 0.9232

The Euro trades in extended consolidative phase under last week’s fresh high at 1.3567. Near-term price action moves in a sideways mode and being entrenched within 1.3500/50 range. Psychological 1.35 support, reinforced by ascending hourly 55DMA, keeps the downside protected for now, with hourly studies holding neutral tone. From the other side, extended 4-hour studies see risk of further consolidation, with double-Doji supporting such scenario. However, deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, as daily RSI is entering overbought territory. Immediate support lies at 1.3500, ahead of 1.3450, previous top and 50% retracement of 1.3337/1.3567 upleg. Increased downside risk would be seen in case of violation of 1.3400, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3103/1.3567 and 1.3340, higher platform and 50% retracement. Targets at 1.3600 and key 1.3710 peak, seen in extension, remain in near-term focus.

Res: 1.3567; 1.3600; 1.3658; 1.3710

Sup: 1.3500; 1.3479; 1.3450; 1.3425

Cable’s corrective pullback from 1.6161, 18/09 fresh high, has stabilized at psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5890/1.6161 ascend support, with near-term basing attempt being under way. Hourly studies are weak and require break above lower top at 1.6065 to confirm recovery, as 4-hour structure remains positive and keeps the upside favored. However, overbought daily studies require caution, as possible extension below 1.5900/1.5880 higher platform, would risk deeper pullback and open next target at 1.5800. Conversely, clearance of 1.6065 and regain of 1.6100 barrier, would shift near-term focus towards 1.6161 and signal possible resumption of larger uptrend towards 1.6200, next upside target.

Res: 1.6065; 1.6100; 1.6140; 1.6161

Sup: 1.6000; 1.5985; 1.5954; 1.5890

The near-term structure weakens after the pair failed to regain psychological 100 barrier on a strong bounce off 97.75. Pullback from 99.65, where the rally stalled, cracked 99.00 handle, also 38.2% of 97.75/99.65 upleg that increases downside risk, as 4-hour indicators are breaking in the negative territory. Further easing would look for test of 98.70/98.48, Fibonacci 50% / 61.8% of 97.75/99.65, and 98.22, trendline support, also the neckline of H&S pattern that is forming on a daily chart. Conversely, lift above 99.65 is required to neutralize.

Res: 99.16; 99.65; 99.96; 100.21

Sup: 98.70; 98.44; 98.22; 98.00

The Aussie trades in near-term corrective mode, with price action coming under increased pressure, after extension of pullback from 0.9526 peak, dipped to 0.9365 so far. Hourly studies are still weak, however, quick recovery above 0.9400 handle, keeps the positive tone on the larger timeframes in play. Clearance of lower platform at 0.9455, is seen as minimum requirement to avert downside risk and shift focus towards 0.9500 and 0.9526 barriers. Otherwise, loss of 0.9365, session low and higher platform at 0.9340, would keep the downside vulnerable and risk stronger correction. Strong supports lay at 0.9283, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8891/0.9526 and 9222/00, higher platform / 50% retracement.

Res: 0.9455; 0.9483; 0.9500; 0.9526

Sup: 0.9365; 0.9340; 0.9300; 0.9283

Hourly structure weakened, as the price broke below initial 1.35 support. Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3337/1.3567 upleg at 1.3480 was tested so far, with further corrective easing not ruled out. However, positive 4-hour studies see scope for shallow correction, before bulls re-assert for fresh attempt higher, as overall positive sentiment keeps near-term focus at the upper targets at 1.3567 and 1.3600 in extension, with key barrier at 1.3710, coming in sight. Strong supports lay at 1.3450, previous top and 1.34 zone, double Fibonacci support, 76.4% of 1.3337/1.3567 / 38.2% of 1.3103/1.3567 and should contain stronger pullback.

Res: 1.3547; 1.3567; 1.3600; 1.3658

Sup: 1.3479; 1.3450; 1.3425; 1.3400

Cable remains in extended consolidative phase above 1.6000, where the pullback from 1.6161 peak found temporary support. Hourly studies are neutral, while overall positive tone on the larger timeframes favors further upside. Break above initial barrier and near-term consolidation top at 1.6070, is required to confirm rebound and open 1.6100 and 1.6161 barriers for retest. Short-term targets at 1.6300 and 1.6380 remain in focus. The scenario would be delayed in case of further easing below 1.6000, while extension below 1.5900 and 1.5880, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5427/1.6161, would sideline bulls.

Res: 1.6070; 1.6100; 1.6140; 1.6161

Sup: 1.6000; 1.5985; 1.5954; 1.5890

The pair consolidates pullback from 99.65, after finding temporary support at 98.65, near 50% retracement of 97.75/99.65 upleg. However, negative tone persists on the lower timeframes studies and keeps the downside at risk, with immediate supports at 98.48, Fibonacci 61.8% and 98.20 trendline support and psychological 98.00 level, loss of which would expose key near-term support at 97.75, 18/09 low. Only break above 99.65 would bring bulls fully in play and open 100 and 100.60 instead.

Res: 99.16; 99.65; 99.96; 100.21

Sup: 98.65; 98.44; 98.22; 98.00

The Aussie remains in a sideways consolidative mode, after pullback from 0.9526 high found ground at 0.9365, weekly low. Neutral tone prevails on hourly chart studies, while 4-hour structure remains bullish, with price action being underpinned by ascending 55DMA at 0.9355. Upside extension above consolidation tops at 0.9455 is required to confirm near-term **** and shift focus higher, while further easing below 0.9365 would risk further corrective action that should be ideally contained at 0.9300/0.9280, to keep bulls in play.

Res: 0.9455; 0.9483; 0.9500; 0.9526

Sup: 0.9393; 0.9365; 0.9340; 0.9300

The Euro continues to descend gradually, after losing 1.35 handle, with fresh weakness approaching strong 1.3450 support, 50% retracement of 1.3337/1.3567 upleg / previous top of 20/08. Negative hourly studies and 4-hour indicators breaking below the midlines, see scope for further correction towards next significant support zone at 1.3400/1.3390, former lower platform and double Fibonacci support. Key near-term support lies at 1.3330 higher platform and 50% retracement of 1.3103/1.3567. Larger picture outlook remains bullish and favors further upside, once near-term correction is completed.

Res: 1.3480; 1.3500; 1.3547; 1.3567

Sup: 1.3450; 1.3425; 1.3400; 1.3390

Cable continues to trend lower and retraced 76.4% of post Fed 1.5883/1.6161 rally, on extension to 1.5950, so far, where 55 DMA contained dips . Negatively aligned near-term studies favor further corrective action and risk retest of strong 1.5900/1.5883 support area, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5427/1.6161, violation of which would signal stronger reversal and mark near-term top at 1.6161. Daily RSI, emerging of overbought territory, supports the notion, while only regain of lower platform at 1.6070 would ease immediate bear pressure and re-focus 1.6100 and 1.6161 barriers.

Res: 1.6000; 1.6019; 1.6070; 1.6100

Sup: 1.5950; 1.5900; 1.5883; 1.5831

The pair remains heavy and extends weakness off 99.65 upside rejection, to 98.48, 61.8% retracement of 97.75/99.65 ascend so far. Prevailing negative tone keeps the downside at risk, with immediate focus being at 98.20, trendline support / 76.4% retracement and psychological 98.00 support, ahead of key near-term support at 97.75, 18/09 low. Break here to open way for possible full retracement of larger 96.80/100.60 upleg. Daily studies are losing momentum and seen supportive for such scenario. Initial resistance lies at 99.16, while only break above 99.65 would turn near-term structure positive.

Res: 99.00; 99.16; 99.65; 99.96

Sup: 98.46; 98.22; 98.00; 97.75

The Aussie came under pressure again, following recovery attempt failure at 0.9455 and subsequent weakness that violated initial 0.9365 support. Near-term studies in negative territory, see risk of further downside, with immediate targets laying at 0.9300 and 0.9283, Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 0.8891/0.9526 ascend, below which to signal stronger correction and mark near-term top. From the other side, larger picture bulls remain intact and would keep further upside in play, as long as the price holds above 0.9200 support, higher platform and 50% retracement of 0.8891/0.9526 rally.

Res: 0.9412; 0.9455; 0.9483; 0.9500

Sup: 0.9340; 0.9300; 0.9283; 0.9222

The Euro regained levels above 1.35 handle after finding ground at 1.3460, just ahead of strong support at 1.3450, 20/08 previous high and 50% retracement of 1.3337/1.3567 rally. The price action moves towards the upper boundary of near-term range at 1.3550, with improved hourly structure and positive 4-hour studies, setting scope for possible fresh attack at key near-term barrier and peak at 1.3567. Break here to resume larger uptrend that commenced from 1.2754, with weekly close above 1.3567/1.3600 barriers, required to confirm bulls and open way towards short-term target at 1.3710, 01/02 annual high. To keep the structure intact, support at 1.3450 must hold dips. Previous resistance at 1.3500 offers immediate support that is reinforced by hourly Ichimoku cloud top.

Res: 1.3536; 1.3547; 1.3567; 1.3600

Sup: 1.3500; 1.3461; 1.3450; 1.3425

Cable regained ground on a bounce to the levels close to 1.6100 barrier, after pullback from 1.6161 peak, found support at 1.5953, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.5890/1.6161 rally. Bulls on lower timeframes studies returned to play, with near-term focus being shifted towards the upside. Clearance of initial 1.6100 hurdle to open key resistance at 1.6161, 19/09 high and signal completion of near-term corrective phase, with break higher to resume 9-week uptrend from 1.4812, 09/07 low and open way towards key short-term barriers at 1.6300 and 1.6380. To keep freshly established bulls intact, corrective dips should be contained at /above 1.6020, 50% retracement of 1.5953/1.6086 upleg.

Res: 1.6086; 1.6100; 1.6140; 1.6161

Sup: 1.6065; 1.6035; 1.6020; 1.6000

The dollar recovered a good part of the recent fall from 99.65, on a bounce from 98.25, where the price found support. Regain of levels above psychological 99.00 barrier, marks 61.8% retracement of 99.65/98.25 descend, with hourly indicators moving into positive territory, seeing potential for further recovery. From the other side, weak 4-hour structure keeps the downside vulnerable, while lower top at 99.65 stays intact. Break here to confirm reversal and re-open psychological 100 barrier. Initial supports lay at 98.80 and 98.50, while slide below 98.25 would bring bears back in play.

Res: 99.10; 99.16; 99.65; 99.96

Sup: 98.80; 98.46; 98.25; 98.00

The Aussie remains under pressure, as fresh extension lower fully retraced post-Fed rally from 0.9340. Negatively aligned near-term studies keep the downside at risk, with strong support zone at 0.9300, psychological support and 0.9280; higher low of 17/09 / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8891/0.9526 rally, coming in focus. Break lower to open next layers of support at 0.9250 and strong 0.9220/00 area, higher platform of 12/13 / 09 and 50% retracement, where any stronger pullback should be contained, to keep larger bulls intact. However, only regain of 0.9455 lower platform, would shift focus higher.

Res: 0.9412; 0.9455; 0.9483; 0.9500

Sup: 0.9337; 0.9300; 0.9280; 0.9222

The Euro erased last Friday’s gains, after rally stalled near 1.3567 peak and subsequent reversal dipped close to 1.3500 handle. Negative sentiment was confirmed by gap-lower opening, with price moving in the lower part of 1.3460/1.3567, one-week range. Hourly studies turned negative and keep the downside at risk, while 4-hour indicators are at the midlines. Bearish trigger will be seen on violation of strong 1.3460 / 50 support zone, where the range floor is reinforced by 55DMA and double Fibonacci, 23.6% retracement of 1.3103/1.3567 upleg and 50% of 1.3337/1.3567, as break here is expected to confirm double-top formation and open fresh leg lower towards 1.3400, round figure / 38.2% of 1.3103/1.3567 next. Conversely, bounce above 1.35 barrier, would avert immediate downside risk and signal continuation of sideways trading.

Res: 1.3505; 1.3522; 1.3536; 1.3563

Sup: 1.3476; 1.3461; 1.3450; 1.3425

Cable remains firm, as fresh extension higher completed near-tern 1.6161/1.5953 corrective phase. The price posted marginally fresh high at 1.6179, with positively aligned near-term technicals being supportive for possible attack at psychological 1.6200 barrier. However, overbought conditions on lower timeframes studies, see corrective pullback preceding fresh rally, with initial support at 1.6130, Friday’s intraday high / 23.6% of 1.5953/1.6179, ahead of 1.6100, 38.2% retracement / 26/09 high / 55DMA, seen as ideal reversal point. Overbought daily studies, however, require caution.

Res: 1.6179; 1.6200; 1.6250; 1.6300

Sup: 1.6130; 1.6100; 1.6060; 1.6028

The pair remains under pressure, as repeated failures to clear 99.00 barrier and trendline resistance, extended bears through triangle support at 98.47and previous low at 97.75. The fall retraced 61.8% of 95.78/100.60 rally, keeping the downside in near-term focus. Negative near-term studies and gap-lower opening today, maintain the pressure, with daily indicators breaking into negative territory, supporting the notion. Next supports lay at 96.90 higher platform and Fibonacci 76.4% and 96.80, 28/08 low, while initial barriers lay at 98.00/30 zone.

Res: 98.00; 98.30; 98.50; 98.80

Sup: 97.62; 97.00; 96.90; 96.80

The Aussie remains at the back foot, as the price continues to move lower, with psychological 0.9300 support being cracked on extension to 0.9280, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8891/0.9526. Prevailing negative tone on near-term studies keeps the downside at risk, with extension below strong 0.9220/00 support zone, higher platform / 50% retracement, to confirm near-term top and allow for further easing. Initial barriers lay at 0.9330 zone, while only regain of 0.9400 handle, would ease immediate bear pressure.

Res: 0.9330; 0.9373; 0.9400; 0.9455

Sup: 0.9280; 0.9222; 0.9200; 0.9134