Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro regained strength after Monday’s weakness was contained above near-term consolidation floor and 55 DMA, with fresh gains above 1.35 handle, aiming towards the range’s upper boundary. Lower timeframes studies are positive and support final push through 1.3567 peak, for resumption of larger uptrend towards initial barrier at 1.3600 and key resistance and near-term target at 1.3710, 01/02 annual high. Initial supports lay at 1.3536 and 1.3517, while loss of 1.3500 would weaken the structure again.

Res: 1.3563; 1.3567; 1.3600; 1.3650

Sup: 1.3536; 1.3517; 1.3500; 1.3476

Cable remains firm and continues to trend higher, as final push through 1.6179/1.6200 hurdles, resumes the larger uptrend from 1.4812, annual low. As the last obstacles en-route to short-term targets at 1.6308 and 1.6380 were cleared, likely scenario would be test of Apr/Sep 2012 highs at 1.6300/08 and 1.6380, 2012 high. Positive technicals support the notion, however, overbought conditions on lower timeframes, suggest corrective easing, with initial supports at 1.6200 and 1.6179/61, previous highs.

Res 1.6300; 1.6308; 1.6350; 1.6380

Sup: 1.6200; 1.6180; 1.6161; 1.6126

The pair remains under pressure, as recovery rally from fresh low at 97.48 was capped by bear-trendline at 97.70. Hourly studies are losing traction, with 4-hour technicals maintaining negative tone that sees increased risk of lower top formation and resumption of bear phase from 100.60, with slide below 97.48, required to confirm. Bearish continuation to focus 97.00 zone, higher platform / Fibonacci 76.4% of 95.78/100.60 and broken bear channel line, drawn off 101.52 peak. Any stronger recovery would require clear break above 99.00 barrier, to avert immediate downside risk.

Res: 98.00; 98.45; 98.71; 99.00

Sup: 97.62; 97.48; 97.00; 96.90

The Aussie regains strength after repeated attempt lower was contained at 0.9280, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8891/0.9526 rally, where near-term **** has been formed. Fresh rally above 0.9400 barrier, also 50% of 0.9526/0.9280 fall, turns near-term technicals positive and shifts focus higher. However, to confirm higher low formation, regain of lower top at 0.9455 is required. Overbought hourly studies see risk of corrective pullback, with dips to be ideally contained at 0.9350 zone.

Res: 0.9422; 0.9455; 0.9483; 0.9500

Sup: 0.9390; 0.9368; 0.9350; 0.9334

The Euro completed near-term consolidative phase and broke above range tops at 1.3567/79, to crack the next barrier at 1.3600, with fresh high being posted at 1.3622. The last significant hurdle on the way towards short-term target at 1.3710, 2013 high, has been dented that signal final push higher for completion of multi-month 1.3710/1.2744 corrective phase. Near-term technicals are positively aligned, however, caution is required, as overbought hourly conditions and formation of 4-hour RSI / MACD bearish divergence, would signal further hesitation at 1.36 zone. Initial support lies at 1.3576 higher low, ahead of 1.3550, 50% of 1.3476/1.3622 upleg and pivotal 1.3500 support, higher platform and 4-hour Ichimoku cloud top, loss of which would be bearish. Alternatively, close above 1.36 handle, is required to confirm bullish resumption.

Res: 1.3622; 1.3658; 1.3700; 1.3710

Sup: 1.3576; 1.3550; 1.3532; 1.3500

Cable trades in a near-term consolidative mode, after renewed attempt higher stalled on approach to the fresh high at 1.6259, posted on 01/10. Overall bulls, however, remain intact and keep focus at short-term targets at 1.63 zone and 2013 high at 1.6380, posted on 02/01. Further consolidation is not ruled out, as near-term indicators are in descending mode, with higher low at 1.6160, expected to hold. Otherwise, break lower would signal stronger corrective action, with overbought daily studies supporting the notion.

Res 1.6239; 1.6250; 1.6259; 1.6300

Sup: 1.6200; 1.6160; 1.6126; 1.6100

The pair remains pressured, as fresh extension of near-term downleg from 100.60, broke below bull trendline off 93.78, 13/06 low, approaching psychological 97.00 level, ahead of more significant 96.80, 28/08 higher low. With near-term indicators holding in the negative territory, further easing is seen favored, with break below 96.80, also near 76.4% retracement of 95.78/100.60 ascend, expected to open 96.55, 200DMA and key 95.78 support, 08/08 low. Corrective rallies may precede fresh weakness, with initial resistances laying at 98.00/28 and rallies seen limited under 98.71, 01/10 lower top.

Res: 98.00; 98.28; 98.71; 99.00

Sup: 97.13; 97.00; 96.80; 96.55

The pair holds positive near-term tone off 0.9280 ****, as pullback from recovery top at 0.9434, found footstep at 0.9332. The rally cracked psychological 0.9400 barrier, with clear break here and 0.9434, required to confirm higher low formation and allow for further recovery. Conversely, rejection under 0.9432, would keep the downside vulnerable and signal prolonged consolidation, as long as 0.9280 support holds.

Res: 0.9400; 0.9409; 0.9434; 0.9455

Sup: 0.9365; 0.9332; 0.9300; 0.9280

The Euro consolidates within 1.3540/90 range, after pullback from 1.3645 peak found support at 1.3540, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3476/1.3645 upleg. Hourly studies are weak, while 4-hour RSI holds in the neutral area; MACD just above the midline and loss of momentum maintains the downside risk. However, the downside is for now protected by ascending 55DMA, currently at 1.3543 that makes initial support, ahead of range floor at 1.3540, while sideways-moving 20DMA at 1.3572 limits upside attempts, ahead of range top at 1.3590. Break of either side to define near-term direction, with 4-hour bearish divergence, seeing more downside risk. Bearish resumption requires break below 1.3540/00 supports to open way for further correction, while alternative scenario sees break above 1.3600 barrier, needed to neutralize near-term bears.

Res: 1.3590; 1.3600; 1.3630; 1.3645

Sup: 1.3555; 1.3537; 1.3500; 1.3460

Cable corrects recent losses that found support at important 1.6000 zone, with rally being so far capped at 1.61 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6259/1.6005 decline. Slightly improved hourly studies still lack momentum for further recovery, as bears dominate on 4-hour studies and price action being limited by 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover. Downside risk remains in play and sees potential for further corrective easing, with slide below 1.6000 handle, expected to open next supports at 1.5940, 24/09 higher low and Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5427/1.6259 rally and psychological 1.5900 support. Break here to signal near-term top at 1.6259 and allow for deeper pullback of larger 1.4812/1.6259 rally that would also put aside near-term targets at 1.6300/80. Regain of 1.6180/1.6200 barriers is required sideline downside risk and signal higher low formation.

Res 1.6100; 1.6133; 1.6162; 1.6199

Sup: 1.6060; 1.6024; 1.6005; 1.5980

The greenback remains at the back foot against the yen, as confirmed break below 97.00/96.80 supports, heads towards the next significant level at 95.78, 08/08 low. The price action cracked 200DMA at 96.70, with losses being so far contained by broken bear-trendline and previous channel resistance, drawn off 101.52 peak. Corrective bounce above 97.00 barrier, triggered by oversold near-term studies, should not have stronger impact, as structure remains negative and keeps the downside favored. Immediate barriers lay at 95.47, and 4-hour 55DMA at 97.70, with rallies to be ideally capped at 98.00/50 zone, to maintain negative sentiment.

Res: 97.21; 97.47; 97.70; 98.00

Sup: 96.55; 96.00; 95.90; 95.78

Near-term focus shifts higher, as the price extends rally from 0.9280 near-term **** and approaches pivotal 0.9455 barrier, on a renewed attack. With hourly studies moving out of neutral mode and 4-hour indicators, being in positive territory, near-term scenario favors further bulls and eventual attempt at key barrier at 0.9526, 18/09 peak. However, clearance of 0.9455, is seen as initial requirement. Otherwise, prolonged consolidation above 0.9280, would the likely scenario.

Res: 0.9457; 0.9500; 0.9526; 0.9550

Sup: 0.9410; 0.9389; 0.9368; 0.9350

The Euro fell to the near-term range floor at 1.3540 zone, reinforced by 4-hour Ichimoku cloud top, after repeated failure at 1.3600 barrier triggered quick pullback. Having cracked 4-hour 55DMA that so far protected the downside, the pair risks further easing, as hourly studies are negatively aligned and 4-hour indicators breaking into negative territory. The initial trigger will be loss of 1.3540 that would open way towards 1.3500 and more significant 1.3460 higher platform, below which to confirm reversal and near-term top at 1.3645. Alternatively, holding above 1.3540, would signal prolonged sideways movements, with only break above 1.3600, required to shift near-term focus higher and re-expose key 1.3645 peak.

Res: 1.3562; 1.3583; 1.3600; 1.3630

Sup: 1.3544; 1.3537; 1.3500; 1.3460

Cable’s near-term recovery attempt off 1.6005 low failed of repeated attack at 1.6123, yesterday’s high and immediate reversal brought the price the mid–point zone of entire 1.6005/1.6123 rally. With hourly indicators sliding below the midlines, as price action establishes below hourly 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover, as well as negative 4-hour structure, immediate risk is seen on renewed attempt at 1.6000 ****. Break here to confirm formation of the double-top at 1.6123/21 and the third wave of the downmove from 1.6259 that could extend to 1.5955, 24/09 higher low and Fibonacci 61.8% expansion. Alternative scenario requires clearance of 1.6121/23 peaks, as well as 50% retracement of 1.6259/1.6005 descend at 1.6132, to ease immediate bear-pressure and allow for further recovery.

Res 1.6085; 1.6100; 1.6123; 1.6132

Sup: 1.6024; 1.6005; 1.5980; 1.5955

The pair trades in near-term corrective mode off fresh low at 96.55, where broken bear-trendline from 101.52 and previous channel resistance, contained losses for now. The price action regained important 97.47 lower high of 04/10, extending the upleg from 96.81, where higher low was left. Positive hourly structure supports further correction, with dips expected to hold above 97.00, 20/55 bullish crossover, to maintain positive sentiment. Clear break above 97.47 to confirm near-term **** and open way towards next significant barriers at 97.86, 03/10 lower top and 98.10, 50% retracement of 99.65/96.55 downleg. Conversely, failure to sustain break above 97.47, would keep the downside at risk, as larger picture bears remain in play and eye full retracement of 97.58/101.52 rally.

Res: 97.47; 97.86; 98.10; 98.28

Sup: 97.10; 96.81; 96.55; 96.00

Near-term focus shifts higher, as the price extends rally from 0.9280 near-term **** and breaks above pivotal 0.9455 barrier. Pullback from fresh high at 0.9483, could be seen as corrective, despite weakened hourly studies, as the fall was contained at 0.9410 ****, reinforced by 55DMA and 50% retracement of 0.9526/0.9280 descend. Fresh attempt higher is supported by positive 4-hour studies, with break above 0.9483 and psychological 0.9500 hurdles, to open way for final push towards key 0.9526 barrier and possibly resume larger recovery rally from 0.8891. Conversely, loss of 0.9400 support, would weaken the near-term structure.

Res: 0.9454; 0.9483; 0.9500; 0.9526

Sup: 0.9410; 0.9389; 0.9368; 0.9350