Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro remains in near-term consolidative mode above fresh low at 1.3506, with probe above initial 1.3560 barrier, being for now capped at the next hurdle at 1.3580. However, positive tone, established on hourly chart, sees potential for fresh upside attempts, with sustained break above 1.3580 and more significant 1.3600 barrier, 50% retracement of 1.3698/1.3506 / daily Kijun-sen line / broken bull-trendline off 1.2754, required to spark stronger recovery. On the other side, negative 4-hour / daily studies, see the upside actions limited, as failure at 1.36 would keep the sideways mode in play, with the downside remaining vulnerable. Break below 1.35 support will be seen as a trigger of fresh extension of near-term downtrend from 1.3892, 27 Dec peak.

Res: 1.3580; 1.3600; 1.3625; 1.3648

Sup: 1.3535; 1.3506; 1.3460; 1.3430

Fresh bulls came in play as the price broke above near-term triangular consolidation and bear-trendline off 1.6602 peak, signaling attack at important 1.6515 barrier, 10 Jan lower top. Positive near-term studies support the advance, with corrective action on overbought hourly studies, expected to ideally find footstep at 1.6450/40 zone, previous consolidation tops / bull-trendline off 1.6307 / hourly 55DMA. Further easing below the latter, however, would delay immediate bulls for deeper pullback. Only loss of 1.64 higher platform would bring bears back in play.

Res: 1.6489; 1.6515; 1.6577; 1.6602

Sup: 1.6450; 1.6440; 1.6400; 1.6376

The pair enters range trading after upside rejection under 104.93 peak, with near-term price action established within 104.75 and 103.90 range. Holding above 104 handle, also near 50% retracement of 102.84/104.93 upleg, would keep the upside in play, as 4-hour studies hold positive tone. Regain of 104.93 and 105 hurdles is required to signal further upside and eventual attack at key 105.40 double-top. Otherwise, loss of higher platform at 103.90 would increase downside risk and formation of lower top at 104.75, as a part of near-term downtrend from 105.43, 02 Jan peak.

Res: 104.56; 104.75; 104.93; 105.05

Sup: 104.13; 103.89; 103.64; 103.30

The pair regains ground after break above near-term consolidative range and initial barrier at 0.8830, regain the next resistance at 0.8881, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.9084/0.8755 descend. Further advance is seen favored, as 4-hour studies gained strong momentum, however, overbought hourly conditions see scope for consolidative/corrective action ahead of next barriers at 0.8900/20, round figure / daily 20DMA / 50% retracement. The downside should be ideally protected at 0.8830, previous resistance, to keep fresh bulls intact. Potential stronger recovery would look for 0.9000 and pivotal 0.9084, 13 Jan lower top / daily 55DMA.

Res: 0.8900; 0.8920; 0.8932; 0.8958

Sup: 0.8850; 0.8830; 0.8800; 0.8775

The Euro maintains positive tone and consolidates around 1.37 handle, previous peak and daily Kijun-sen line, which was dented on Friday’s spike to 1.3738, level last time traded on 02 Jan. Stretched 4-hour studies, see scope for extended consolidation, with immediate support at 1.3660, consolidation floor, reinforced by 38.2% of 1.3529/1.3838 upleg; hourly 55DMA and daily cloud top, loss of which would trigger corrective action towards 1.3634, 50% retracement and 1.36 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% / 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover, above which stronger dips should be contained. On the upside, clearance of 1.3700/38 barriers would open strong 1.38 resistance zone, December’s congestion tops.

Res: 1.3700; 1.3738; 1.3800; 1.3815

Sup: 1.3660; 1.3634; 1.3600; 1.3580

Cable lost traction and ended Friday’s trading in red after strong pullback from fresh peak at 1.6668, probed below 1.65 handle and found temporary footstep at 1.6472. Reversal retraced over 50% of 1.6307/1.6668 rally that weakened near-term structure, as hourly studies turned negative and 4-hour indicators approaching the midlines. Larger picture bulls, however, remain intact and expected to resume higher after completion of corrective phase. Bounce off 1.6472 that probes above 1.65 barrier, would face broken bull-trendline off 1.6307 and 1.6550, above which to signal further recovery and avert immediate downside risk. Break above 1.66 hurdle is required to confirm. On the other-side, limited corrective action would keep the downside vulnerable, as slide below 1.65 handle would bring fresh weakness for retest of 1.6472 and 1.6445, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6307/1.6668; 1.6400, psychological support in extension.

Res: 1.6550; 1.6600; 1.6622; 1.6642

Sup: 1.6500; 1.6472; 1.6445; 1.6400

The pair enters near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 101.75, after two-legged weakness off 104.83, 23 Jan lower top slid through important 102.84 and 102.00 supports. Overall negative tone, established after repeated rejections at 105 hurdle and acceleration lower, keep the downside favored in the near-term, with fresh leg lower seen on a completion of corrective rally. Crack of initial 102.70 resistance, opens more significant 103.00 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 104.83/101.75 descend, reinforced by hourly 55DMA and pivotal 103.57, 24 Jan lower top / near 61.8% retracement, where rallies should be ideally capped. Otherwise, break here would sideline near-term bears and shift focus higher. Initial support lies at 102.50, daily cloud top, ahead of 102.00 and 101.75 low, loss of which to confirm bearish resumption.

Res: 102.84; 103.00; 103.29; 103.57

Sup: 102.50; 102.00; 101.75; 101.60

The pair remains under pressure, as fresh weakness posted new low at 0.8658, initial target of Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the wave from 0.9755 lower top. Corrective bounce above 0.87 barrier, so far holds below initial 0.8745/55 resistance, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8886/0.8658 descend / hourly 55DMA / previous low, with break higher to confirm recovery mode. North heading hourly indicators support the notion, as 4-hour indicators are starting to reverse. However, overall negative structure keeps the downside at risk, with regain of minimum 0.88 barrier, required to ease bear-pressure and delay fresh bears. On the downside, psychological 0.87 level offers initial support, ahead of 0.8676, session low and 0.8658, loss of which to resume larger bears and expose 0.8600 and 0.8543, 50% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 rally.

Res: 0.8745; 0.8755; 0.8800; 0.8832

Sup: 0.8700; 0.8676; 0.8658; 0.8600

The Euro remains in near-term sideways mode under 1.37 barrier that so far offers solid resistance and keeps the upside capped. Hourly structure is neutral, while positive tone prevails on 4-hour chart, keeping the upside favored. With the downside being protected at lowered range floor at 1.3652, near 38.2% retracement of 1.3529/1.3738 and price action underpinned by hourly 55DMA / 4-hour 20DMA / daily cloud top, fresh attacks at 1.37 hurdle will remain in play. Otherwise, further easing below 1.3652 would delay bulls for deeper correction, with 1.36 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, required to hold. Break above 1.37 and spike high at 1.3615/38, to resume larger rally off 1.3506 and expose 1.38 resistance zone.

Res: 1.3687; 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3738

Sup: 1.3665; 1.3652; 1.3634; 1.3600

Cable regained positive tone on extension of bounce from 1.6472, yesterday’s fresh low, as regain of 1.66 handle brought hourly bulls back in play. With 4-hour structure being positive, near-term focus remains at fresh peak at 1.6668. Corrective action, however, is expected to precede fresh rally, with good support at 1.6565, higher platform and 38.2% of 1.6472/1.6623 upleg, reinforced by 55DMA and seen as ideal reversal point. Downside risk would increase in case of stronger reversal and violation of 1.6530, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and 1.6515, previous high of 10 Jan.

Res: 1.6623; 1.6642; 1.6668; 1.6700

Sup: 1.6587; 1.6565; 1.6530; 1.6515

The pair holds in near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 101.75, following two-legged descend from 104.83, 23 Jan lower top. Overall negative tone, established after repeated rejections at 105 hurdle and acceleration lower, keep the downside favored in the near-term, with fresh leg lower seen on a completion of corrective rally. Crack of initial 102.70 resistance, opens more significant 103.00 barrier, Fibonacci 38.2% of 104.83/101.75 descend, reinforced by hourly 55DMA and pivotal 103.57, 24 Jan lower top / near 61.8% retracement, where rallies should be ideally capped. Otherwise, break here would sideline near-term bears and shift focus higher. Initial support lies at 102.50, daily cloud top, ahead of 102.15 higher low and 101.75 low, loss of which to confirm bearish resumption and expose immediate target at 101.60, 06 Dec low.

Res: 103.16; 103.29; 103.57; 104.00

Sup: 102.50; 102.18; 101.75; 101.60

The pair regained ground following last week losses, as extension of corrective rally from fresh low at 0.8658, broke above previous **** at 0.8755 and cracked psychological 0.8800 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8886/0.8658 descend, reinforced by 4-hour 55DMA. Positive hourly conditions see potential for further upside, however, weak 4-hour structure, keeps the downside risk in play while barriers at 0.8800/30 stay intact. Clear break here to confirm recovery and open key near-term barrier and breakpoint at 0.8886, 22 Jan high. Alternatively, lower top formation under the latter and fresh leg lower, would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 0.8832; 0.8886; 0.8921; 0.8950

Sup: 0.8750; 0.8700; 0.8676; 0.8658

The Euro’s near-term tone is negatively aligned, as repeated rejection s at 1.37 barrier increased downside pressure. Extension below initial supports at 1.3660/50 tested main bull-trendline off 1.2754, 2013 low at 1.3630, also mid-point of 1.3529/1.3738 upleg, with support being reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line and 4-hour 55DMA. Larger picture shows neutral tone, as the price consolidates last week’s rally. More bearish tone would be seen in case of violation of 1.3620/00 support zone that will confirm near-term top and expose lower targets at 1.3550 and 1.3500 zone. Otherwise, while 1.3600/20 supports hold, the upside attempts will remain in play in the near-term. Clear break above 1.37 handle is required to confirm bullish resumption.

Res: 1.3687; 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3738

Sup: 1.3646; 1.3625; 1.3609; 1.3580

Cable’s hourly structure is neutral, while 4-hour studies maintain positive tone, established on recovery rally from 1.6472 to 1.6623 so far. Narrow consolidation under 1.66 barrier is under way and expected to precede fresh attempt higher, while the price holds above 1.6544/34, bull-trendline off 1.6307 low / yesterday’s pullback low and Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6472/1.6623 upleg. Break here would bring bears back in play and risk lower top formation.

Res: 1.6593; 1.6623; 1.6642; 1.6668

Sup: 1.6559; 1.6544; 1.6534; 1.6515

The pair remains in near-term corrective phase off fresh low at 101.75, posted on 27 Jan. Hourly structure improves, as the price sustains above 103 barrier, with fresh extension higher retracing over 50% of 104.83/101.75 fall. However, overall negative tone, established after repeated rejections at 105 hurdle and acceleration lower, would keep the downside vulnerable, as 4-hour studies are negative. Regain of previous strong supports at 103.90/104.00 is required to improve and sideline downside risk and shift near-term focus higher. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation would remain in play. Initial supports lay at 103.00 and 102.75, daily cloud top, below which downside acceleration would open 102.50 and 102.18.

Res: 103.43; 103.57; 103.90; 104.22

Sup: 103.00; 102.75; 102.50; 102.18

The pair holds positive near-term tone, as extension of corrective rally from fresh low at 0.8658 probed above psychological 0.8800 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8886/0.8658 descend and 4-hour 55DMA. Positive hourly conditions see potential for further upside, as 4-hour studies are gaining momentum. Break above fresh recovery tops at 0.8819/24 to confirm recovery and open key near-term barrier and breakpoint at 0.8886, 22 Jan high, with corrective actions to be ideally contained at 0.8760/50 zone, to keep fresh near-term bulls in play. On the larger picture, however, bears remain firmly in play and see resumption of larger downtrend upon completion of corrective phase.

Res: 0.8824; 0.8856; 0.8886; 0.8921

Sup: 0.8760; 0.8750; 0.8700; 0.8676

The Euro ended week in red, following last week’s sell-off from 1.37 resistance zone, where gains were rejected in several attempts. Fresh acceleration lower eventually broke below near-term platform and congestion floor at 1.35 zone, with fresh low posted at 1.3478, where the price entered consolidative phase. Oversold near-term studies favor further consolidative/corrective action, with initial resistance at 1.35 zone, being tested for now, ahead of 1.3540, 30/31 Jan consolidation floor and 23.6% retracement of 1.3738/1.3478 descend and 1.3580 previous congestion top and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, where rallies would face solid resistance. Violation of the latter and psychological 1.3600 barrier, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line, is required to sideline bears. Otherwise fresh leg lower will look for test of initial targets at 1.3457, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2754/1.3892; 1.3435, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3294/1.3738 upleg and psychological / higher platform support at 1.3400, seen in extension, with 200SMA at 1.3370 expected to come in near-term focus. Negative technicals on the larger picture favor further downside.

Res: 1.3508; 1.3540; 1.3580; 1.3600

Sup: 1.3478; 1.3457; 1.3435; 1.3400

Cable remains under pressure and ended week in red, as the third wave of the weakness from 1.6668 that commenced from 1.6623, met its 100% expansion at 1.6427, with price probing below psychological / higher platform support at 1.6400. Break lower to open 1.6352, Fibonacci 138.2% expansion, ahead of key near-term support at 1.6307, 17 Jan low, extension to which to confirm full-retracement of 1.6307/1.6667 upleg, with break lower to confirm reversal off 1.6668 and spark stronger correction of broader uptrend that started from 1.48 ****. Near-term technicals remain negative, with daily studies building bearish momentum and keeping the downside in near-term focus. Initial resistances lay at 1.6440 and 1.6480, with psychological 1.65 barrier expected to cap corrective rallies.

Res: 1.6440; 1.6480; 1.6500; 1.6525

Sup: 1.6379; 1.6336; 1.6307; 1.6260

The pair remains in near-term consolidative phase above fresh low of 27 Jan at 101.75, with basing attempt seen at 102 support and upside attempts capped at 102.40. Negative tone prevails on lower timeframes studies and keeps the downside under pressure, as long as initial 102.40 barrier caps. Any extension higher would shift focus towards the upper range boundary at 103 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 104.83/101.75 / 4-hour 55SMA, above to sideline downside risk and expose pivotal 103.43 barrier, 29 Jan lower top. Otherwise, risk of losing 102.00 and 101.75 handles would remain in play, with fresh bearish extension seen towards strong support at 101.00, round figure support, 50% retracement of 96.55/105.43 ascend and daily 100SMA.

Res: 102.40; 102.80; 103.00; 103.43

Sup: 101.83; 101.75; 101.60; 101.00

The pair continues to trade within one-week 0.8700/0.8820 range, with neutral tone prevailing in near-term studies. Break of either side of the range is required to define near-term direction, as break higher would signal an end of consolidative phase and resume recovery off 0.8658, with key near-term barrier at 0.8886, 22 Jan high, expected to come in focus. Alternatively, loss of range floor and higher low at 0.8700, which was briefly tested last Friday, would weaken the structure and re-expose key support at 0.8658, 24 Jan fresh low, below which would trigger extension of multi-year downtrend from 1.1079, 2011 peak.

Res: 0.8800; 0.8824; 0.8871; 0.8886

Sup: 0.8737; 0.8709; 0.8676; 0.8658

The Euro trades in near-term corrective phase, off fresh low at 1.3475, where the basing attempt is under way. Positive hourly structure, improved on regain and close above 1.35 handle sees potential for further upside, as the price attempts above yesterday’s highs at 1.3534. Extension to last Friday’s high at 1.3572, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3738/1.3475 descend, is required to confirm near-term bottom and open way for further recovery, however, limited upside action is seen on negative larger timeframes studies. Strong barrier at 1.3 zone, 50% retracement / daily cloud **** / Tenkan-sen line, reinforced by daily 20 and 100SMA’s, is seen capping upside attempts for now. On the downside, first support lies at 1.3503, ahead of more significant 1.3475 platform, loss of which to signal resumption of bear-leg from 1.3738 and open 1.3457, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2754/1.3892; 1.3435, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3294/1.3738 upleg and psychological / higher platform support at 1.3400.

Res: 1.3540; 1.3572; 1.3600; 1.3638

Sup: 1.3503; 1.3475; 1.3457; 1.3435

Cable remains under strong, as fresh acceleration through psychological 1.64 support, eventually broke below key near-term support and higher low at 1.6307, completing 1.6307/1.6668 bull-leg. Loss of pivotal 1.6307 support, signals further correction of larger 1.5853/1.6668 rally, as the fall cracked 50% retracement at 1.6262, with next targets standing at: 1.6236, 100SMA; 1.6215, daily cloud ****; 1.6200, round figure and 1.6164, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Overall bearish tone keeps downside firmly in focus, with weakness to be interrupted by corrective rallies on oversold near-term technicals. Previous low at 1.6307 offers initial resistance, ahead of 1.6365, yesterday’s intraday high, with 1.6400 zone, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6623/1.6255 downleg, expected to limit upside attempts.

Res: 1.6315; 1.6365; 1.6400; 1.6440

Sup: 1.6255; 1.6236; 1.6215; 1.6200

The pair came under increased pressure after recovery attempts were capped under 103 barrier and fresh acceleration lower broke below near-term **** at 101.75. Fresh bears took out another strong support at 101, 50% retracement of 96.55/105.43 ascend and daily 100SMA, on extension to 100.74 so far. Near-term consolidative phase is under way, with limited upside action seen on overall negative picture. Previous lows at 101.75/83, along with psychological 102.00 barrier, offer solid resistance and should ideally cap recovery rallies, before fresh leg lower. Extension below 100.74 is expected to open psychological 100 support, reinforced by 200SMA.

Res: 101.37; 101.57; 101.75; 102.00

Sup: 100.74; 100.72; 100.00; 99.56

The pair eventually broke above one week congestion tops at 0.8820 zone, with acceleration higher, clearing another important barrier at 0.8886, 22 Jan lower top and cracking psychological 0.89 barrier. Near-term technicals turned positive on a rally and see scope for further recovery, as the pair has established fresh direction after being congested within 0.8700/0.8820 rage. Immediate target lies at 0.8921, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9084/0.8658 downleg, ahead of 0.8983, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement and psychological 0.9000 barrier, also 03 Jan high, seen in extension. Overbought hourly conditions, however, suggest consolidative/corrective action preceding fresh push higher, with previous range tops at 0.8820 zone, expected to contain.

Res: 0.8913; 0.8921; 0.8983; 0.9000

Sup: 0.8860; 0.8824; 0.8800; 0.8770