Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

0700 , analysis , brokers , gmt , majors , short , technical , term , windsor

The Euro lost ground on yesterday’s acceleration off daily high at 1.3750 zone and broke below strong 1.3700/1.3585 support zone. The fall was interrupted by correction from 1.3660, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3482/1.3772 upleg / daily 55SMA, to 1.37 zone, now reverted to resistance. Negative tone established on lower timeframes keeps the downside at risk, as fresh weakness through 1.3660/50, previous low / daily Tenkan-sen line / 20SMA, opens 1.3620, daily 100SMA / near 50% of 1.3482/1.3770 and psychological 1.3600 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. On the upside, previous consolidation floor at 1.37 zone, reinforced by 4-hour 10/55SMA’s bear cross, offers solid resistance and is expected to cap. Only break and close above here would sideline immediate bears.

Res: 1.3700; 1.3720; 1.3755; 1.3772

Sup: 1.3620; 1.3600; 1.3561; 1.3550

Cable remains in near-term sideways mode, with price action being established within 1.6620 and 1.6725 range. Lack of momentum to sustain gains above 1.67 barrier, triggered pullback to 1.6620, keeping strong 1.66 support intact for now. Neutral tone prevails on near-term studies and sees fresh direction on a break through either of range limits, while larger picture bulls remain in play and see the upside favored, once corrective phase off 1.6821 peak is completed. Ideally, 1.66 handle should keep the downside protected, otherwise broader bulls may be delayed in case the price clearly breaks below 1.66 support.

Res: 1.6700; 1.6725; 1.6740; 1.6800

Sup: 1.6656; 1.6619; 1.6600; 1.6582

Near-term price action enters neutral mode, with price moving within 102.00 and 102.60 range. Psychological 102 support is reinforced by bull-trendline, drawn off 100.79 low and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 100.79/102.82 upleg, with break here seen increasing downside risk. On the upside, immediate barriers lay at 102.60, ahead of near-term congestion tops at 102.70, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, above which to signal resumption of recovery rally from 100.74, 04 Feb low.

Res: 102.59; 102.82; 103.09; 103.43

Sup: 102.22; 102.00; 101.57; 101.37

The pair came under pressure after the price broke below one–week range floor at 0.8930 zone and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8658/0.9079 ascend, attempting at psychological 0.8900 support, also daily Ichimoku cloud ****. Hourly studies are negative and reached oversold zone, while 4-hour indicators broke below their midlines that suggests further downside. Consolidation around 0.89 handle would likely precede fresh leg lower, which is going to test Fibonacci supports of 50% and 61.8% retracement at 0.8869 and 0.8819 respectively, with the latter also marking previous 28/30 Jan consolidation top. Lower tops at 0.8944 and 0.8967 offer initial resistances, while stronger recovery rallies should be ideally capped under psychological 0.9000 resistance, near 61.8% retracement of 0.9048/0.8902 descend.

Res: 0.8944; 0.8967; 0.9000; 0.9024

Sup: 0.8900; 0.8869; 0.8819; 0.8800

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EURUSD managed to reach a two and a half year high on Friday by making a new uptrend high at 1.3914. It has risen above 1.39 for the first time since October 28 2011. There were strong gains on Thursday after the European Central Bank President held rates steady and suggested the central bank wasn’t going to ease policy further in the short term.

From a technical outlook the pair will remain bullish if trading is maintained above 1.38 with targets at 1.3940 and 1.3970

Res: 1.3940, 1.3970, 14015

Sup: 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3720

Overall still stuck in range trading mode since hitting a high of 1.6820 on the 17th of Feb. We had two failed attempts during last Thursday and Friday to break above 1.6780 resistances, however the most likely outlook still remains upwards if it manages to stay supported by 1.6700

Momentum Indicator RSI(14) is moving sideways indicating the lack of trend strength.

Res: 1.6785, 1.6820, 1.6900

Sup: 1.6700, 1.6670, 1.6640

USDJPY is currently in an uptrend on the H1 Chart. It achieved a trend high at 103.75 on Friday and since then retraced almost 80 pips to 103. We expect it to revisit the 103.75 and attempt at achieving a higher high if it stays supported at 102.80(today’s pivot point).

Res: 103.75, 104, 104.35

Sup: 102.80, 102.25, 101.70

Gold is currently testing a critical level today’s pivot at 1330. If it manages to break this support we will reverse our bullish outlook and look for target 1322 and 1308. The 25 dollar drop during today’s and Fridays sessions comes after it failed for the 4th time to break important resistance 1354 (which is also the current uptrend high).

Res: 1354, 1362, 1375

Sup: 1330, 1322, 1308

No important levels were broken during the previous session as the euro spent it trading within a narrow 40 pip range. This low volatility is reflected in the momentum indicators as we see MACD near the zero level and Momentum (22) at the 100 level. This may continue to be the case until the release of JOLTS Job Openings figure from the US at 14:00 GMT

Res: 1.3940, 1.3970, 14015

Sup: 1.3800, 1.3750, 1.3720

A huge drop of 120 pips for the sterling caused it to break all three previously mentioned supports at 1.6700, 1.6670 & 1.6640. Current low stands at 1.6620 which is also the low we saw on the 27th of Feb which makes it an important support level to pass if current downward momentum is to be maintained

We are expecting UK data at 9:30 GMT Manufacturing Production m/m & Inflation Report Hearings

Res: 1.6685, 1.6730, 1.6785

Sup: 1.6620, 1.6580, 1.6540

Lack of action for the USDJPY as it spent the previous session trading within a 40 pip range failing to break any support or resistance level thus there will be no change from our previous outlook. Resistance remains at the current H1 uptrend high of 103.75 which was reached on the 7th of March.

Res: 103.75, 104, 104.35

Sup: 102.80, 102.25, 101.70

After testing critical level 1330 for the second time(first attempt was last Friday), Gold failed to break it finding support and rising to yesterday’s high of 1344 which is 10 dollars short of our next resistance 1354, indicating weak buying momentum which could be due to lack of important economic figures during the previous session.

Res: 1354, 1362, 1375

Sup: 1330, 1322, 1308