Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro trades in consolidative mode after finding ground above 1.33 support. Near-term price action moves around 1.34 handle, still holding below 1.3443, 01 Aug lower top and breakpoint, clearance of which is required to trigger stronger recovery and confirm near-term ****. Near-term action is supported by positive hourly studies and 4-hour indicators emerging above the midlines. Also, reversing daily indicators and RSI out of oversold zone, support the notion. Lift above 1.3443, also near 38.2% retracement of 1.3639./1.3316 descend, to open 1.3485, 24 July lower top and 50% retracement, as well as psychological 1.35 barrier. Pullback off fresh recovery high at 1.3431, which dented 1.34 support, also near 38.2% of 1.3316/1.3431 ascend, should hold above 1.3370, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement and hourly 20/55 SMA’s bullish cross, to keep near-term bulls intact for renewed attempt higher. Otherwise, risk of retest of 1.33 support zone and fresh extension of larger downtrend would remain in play.

Res: 1.3409; 1.3431; 1.3443; 1.3485

Sup: 1.3381; 1.3369; 1.3350; 1.3335

Cable maintains negative tone and reached fresh low at 1.6764, after loss of psychological 1.68 support. The pair is looking for completion of the upleg from 1.67 zone higher ****, to 1.7189, as the biggest part of the rally has already been retraced. Near-term consolidative actions are expected to interrupt bears, however, the upside potential so far looks limited, as near-term technicals remain negative. Only break above 1.6885 lower top would signal more significant upside action and delay attempt at 1.67 ****.

Res: 1.6810; 1.6827; 1.6839; 1.6862

Sup: 1.6764; 1.6736; 1.6691; 1.6657

The pair remains in the downmove off 103.07, 30 July peak, which retraced 76.4% of the rally from 101.07 to 103.07, on a dip to 101.49 so far. Studies on 4-hour chart are weak and maintain the risk of return to 101 ****, as the price holds below 200SMA, stabilizing around 102 handle. On the other side, overall bullish picture remains intact and sees fresh upside potential, once the price confirms footstep at 101.49, which requires clearance of 102.45 lower top and Fibonacci 61.8% of 103.07/101.19 descend, to confirm recovery action.

Res: 102.18; 102.45; 102.91; 103.07

Sup: 101.69; 101.49; 101.07; 100.81

The pair maintains overall negative structure, as fresh acceleration off 0.9372 lower top of 06 Aug, posted new low at 0.9237, approaching strong 0.92 zone ****. Brief upside attempts are expected to delay bears, which are aiming towards 0.92 higher **** and 0.9180, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 0.8658/0.9503 bull phase, with loss of these supports expected to accelerate bears off 0.9503 peak. Near-term price action off 0.9237 low, was so far limited by 4-hour 20SMA, with more significant corrective action to be sparked on a break above 0.9372 lower top.

Res: 0.9285; 0.9320; 0.9372; 0.9415

Sup: 0.9237; 0.9200; 0.9180; 0.9165

The Euro is at the back foot in the near-term, as the price moves lower after recovery rally stalled at 1.3431, short of 1.3443 pivotal top. Subsequent weakness, which broke below psychological 1.34 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3316/1.3431 upleg, sees risk of further easing and possible retest of near-term **** above 1.33 handle. Negative hourly studies support the notion, however, range trading will remain in play while the price holds within current boundaries, with overextended daily technicals suggesting extended consolidation and only break above 1.3343/49 lower top / Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 1.3639./1.3316 descend, to signal stronger recovery attempt. Penetration of strong 1.33 support zone, on the other side, is expected to resume broader weakness off 1.3392, 08 May peak and extend the third wave from 1.3699 lower top of 01 July, towards its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3209.

Res: 1.3375; 1.3401; 1.3431; 1.3443

Sup: 1.3331; 1.3300; 1.3250; 1.3209

Cable maintains negative tone and resumes larger downtrend, which was interrupted by 1.6764/94 consolidation, with psychological 1.68 support now acting as immediate resistance and keeping the upside attempts limited. Fresh weakness is looking for retest of 1.67 zone higher ****, to complete the bull-leg from 1.67 to 1.7189. Break below 1.67 support to open 1.6650, 200SMA. Prevailing negative tone supports the notion, with consolidative actions expected to interrupt bears. On the upside, 1.68 offers solid resistance and sustained break here would delay bears for possible attempt at 1.6885 lower top and breakpoint.

Res: 1.6794; 1.6827; 1.6862; 1.6885

Sup: 1.6736; 1.6691; 1.6657; 1.6600

The pair regained traction on hourly chart studies, as the price action stabilizes above 102 handle and approaches pivotal 102.45 lower top and Fibonacci 61.8% of 103.07/101.49 descend. Break here is required to confirm higher low formation at 101.49 and open 103 zone for test. Daily studies are positive and support the notion, with close above 200SMA, to confirm. Psychological 102 support and higher low, also near daily cloud top, should stay intact to maintain the structure.

Res: 102.45; 102.91; 103.07; 103.42

Sup: 102.22; 102.00; 101.69; 101.49

The pair maintains overall negative structure, as bearish acceleration off 0.9372 lower top of 06 Aug, posted new low at 0.9237, on approach to strong 0.92 zone ****. Brief upside attempts are expected to delay bears, which are aiming towards 0.92 higher **** and 0.9180, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 0.8658/0.9503 bull phase, with loss of these supports expected to accelerate bears off 0.9503 peak. Consolidative action off 0.9237 low, was so far limited under 0.9288, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9372/0.9237 downleg, with more significant corrective action to be sparked on a break above 0.9372 lower top.

Res: 0.9266; 0.9285; 0.9320; 0.9372

Sup: 0.9237; 0.9200; 0.9180; 0.9165

The Euro returned to weakness and trades near 1.3330 ****, following yesterday’s sharp rally, driven by fundamentals, which showed again lack of strength to break above near-term congestion tops and pivotal barriers. Negative near-term studies keep the downside favored, with penetration through 1.3330 ****, reinforced by weekly cloud ****, to trigger fresh extension of larger descend from 1.3392, towards 1.3247, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2042/1.3392 ascend. Overextended daily conditions, however, may delay bears for prolonged consolidative phase.

Res: 1.3372; 1.3414; 1.3431; 1.3443

Sup: 1.3347; 1.3331; 1.3300; 1.3250

Cable came under increased pressure and slumped below 1.6690 higher ****, on Sterling-negative data, released yesterday. Overall bears are confirmed by loss of strong support and target at 1.6690, with immediate target at 1.6657, 200SMA, being tested and psychological 1.66 support coming in focus. Oversold near-term conditions, however, are expected to interrupt bears for consolidative/corrective action, with psychological 1.67 barrier offering initial resistance, ahead of 1.6735, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6843/1.6668 downleg/hourly 55SMA and 1.6755, previous lows and descent’s mid-point, where rallies should be ideally capped.

Res: 1.6700; 1.6735; 1.6755; 1.6766

Sup: 1.6655; 1.6600; 1.6563; 1.6500

The pair remains supported and moves higher after eventually breaking above 102.45/47 lower top/Fibonacci barriers. Positive near-term studies favor further upside and eventual test of pivotal 103 resistance zone, with the notion being supported by reversal pattern, which is close to completion on a daily chart. Previous peaks and 200SMA at 102.30 zone should ideally contain corrective dips, with potential loss of 102 handle, to sideline bulls.

Res: 102.64; 102.91; 103.07; 103.42

Sup: 102.30; 102.07; 102.00; 101.69

Pair’s overall structure remains negative, as bearish acceleration off 0.9372, 06 Aug lower top, posted new low at 0.9237, on approach to strong 0.92 zone ****. Brief upside attempts are expected to delay bears, which are looking for test of 0.92 higher **** and 0.9180, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of larger 0.8658/0.9503 bull phase, with loss of these supports expected to accelerate bears off 0.9503 peak. Consolidative action off 0.9237 low has cracked psychological 0.93 barrier, also 50% retracement of 0.9372/0.9237, which may delay bears, however, only break above 0.9372 lower top would signal near-term **** and more significant corrective action.

Res: 0.9320; 0.9372; 0.9400; 0.9423

Sup: 0.9286; 0.9237; 0.9200; 0.9180

The Euro ended the week in red, maintaining overall negative tone, with lower timeframes studies being in positive mode, as last Friday’s price action probed again above 1.34 barrier, with daily close occurring just ticks below daily highs. This keeps the upside favored in the near-term, however, sustained break above near-term range tops, just above 1.34 level, is required to confirm near-term bulls and spark stronger recovery action towards then next pivotal barrier at 1.3343, 01 Aug lower top. Hourly higher **** at 1.3355 zone, should keep the downside protected, to maintain near-term bulls. Repeated failure above 1.34 barrier, however, would signal prolonged sideways trade, with increased downside risk expected on violation of 1.3355 support.

Res: 1.3398; 1.3414; 1.3431; 1.3443

Sup: 1.3379; 1.3355; 1.3334; 1.3300

Cable overall picture remains bearish, as the pair closed in red for the sixth consecutive week, keeping the short-term downtrend intact for now. On the other side, first signals of reversal come from last Friday’s Doji candle, just above 200SMA, which holds for now and today’s gap-higher opening. Near-term price action is attempting to stabilize above 1.67 handle, with bounce so far having retraced over 38.2% of 1.6843/1.6657 descend and hourly studies being positively aligned. Further upside and break above the next significant barrier at 1.6755, previous low of 12 Aug, also near 50% retracement, looks favored for now and is required to further improve near-term structure for possible attempt at key 1.6843, regain of which to sideline short-term bears. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation, in case of stall under 1.6843, would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 1.6733; 1.6755; 1.6771; 1.6800

Sup: 1.6712; 1.6675; 1.6655; 1.6600

The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode after fresh bulls posted new high at 102.70 and subsequent sharp pullback retested levels close to pivotal 102 support. Hourly studies turned negative, while 4-hour picture holds bullish tone, which is, along with positive daily studies, expected to keep bulls in play for renewed attempt higher, with regain and break above 102.70 hurdle, to open pivotal 103 barrier. Alternatively, loss of 102 handle to confirm near-term bearish stance and extend weakness off 102.70 high.

Res: 102.70; 102.91; 103.07; 103.42

Sup: 102.23; 102.12; 102.00; 101.69

The pair holds steady in the near-term and consolidates last week’s gains which peaked at 0.9332. Pullback off 0.9332 was contained just under 0.93 handle at Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9237/0.9332 upleg that keeps near-term bulls in play for now. Further gains require extension above key 0.9372, 06 June lower top, to confirm near-term **** for stronger correction, which would sideline larger picture bears and delay final push towards strong support and **** at 0.92 zone. Hourly technicals are neutral and 4-hour tone remains positive, with 0.93 support zone required to hold.

Res: 0.9332; 0.9356; 0.9372; 0.9400

Sup: 0.9307; 0.9296; 0.9273; 0.9254

The Euro remains in near-term range trading, following repeated stall of attempts at 1.34 resistance zone, seen yesterday. Near-term studies weakened and trade in the range’s lower part, following pullback of 1.3398, yesterday’s rejection level and high of the day. Break of either side of the range is required to define near-term direction, with loss of range’s floor and near-term ****, seen as a trigger for bearish resumption towards psychological 1.33 support and acceleration lower to expose 1.3247, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend and 1.3209, Fibonacci 100expansion of the third wave which commenced from 1.3699, 01 July lower top. Alternatively, sustained break above near-term range tops, just above 1.34 level, is required to bring bulls in play and spark stronger recovery action towards then next pivotal barrier at 1.3343, 01 Aug lower top.

Res: 1.3365; 1.3380; 1.3398; 1.3414

Sup: 1.3334; 1.3300; 1.3247; 1.3209

Cable is entrenched within narrow range in the near-term price action, after fresh bulls off 1.6655, failed to extend gains above 1.67 barrier. Overall picture remains bearish and keeps short-term downtrend intact for now. On the other side, initial signals of reversal, which came from last Friday’s Doji candle and yesterday’s gap-higher opening, so far did not materialize, as price action remains limited at 1.6736, yesterday’s high. This made hourly studies to start losing traction, with increased downside risk expected on a fresh weakness below 1.67 handle, as 4-hour technicals remain weak. Unless the price action rallies through initial 1.6755/71 barrier, previous low / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6843/1.6655 descend, near-term outlook will see extended sideways mode, with downside risk, as favored scenario.

Res: 1.6736; 1.6755; 1.6771; 1.6800

Sup: 1.6699; 1.6675; 1.6655; 1.6600

The pair holds positive near-term tone, as the price retraced the biggest part of 102.70/102.12 corrective pullback and aims at 102.70, as initial target. Positive near-term studies support fresh attempt at 102.70, for eventual attack at pivotal 103 resistance zone, above which to expose the upper boundaries of short term range. Corrective easing ahead of 102.70 barrier, should be ideally contained at 102.40 zone, to keep near-term bulls intact.

Res: 102.70; 102.91; 103.07; 103.42

Sup: 102.40; 102.23; 102.12; 102.00

The pair remains steady and posted marginally higher high at 0.9340, after completing 0.9332/0.9296 corrective pullback. Further gains require extension above key 0.9372, 06 June lower top, to confirm near-term **** for stronger correction, which would sideline larger picture bears and delay final push towards strong support and **** at 0.92 zone. Near-term technicals are positive and favor further upside, with 0.93 support zone required to hold corrective dips.

Res: 0.9340; 0.9356; 0.9372; 0.9400

Sup: 0.9312; 0.9296; 0.9273; 0.9254

The Euro continues to trend lower, with fresh acceleration below 1.33 handle, testing levels below initial 1.3247, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement target. Further bears are expected to test the next targets at 1.3209/00, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 1.3699 / psychological support, below which 1.3103, September 2013 higher low, will come in focus. Oversold conditions on all timeframes, however, suggest a pause in the downtrend, with 1.33 zone offering the first significant barrier, where lower top and 38.2% retracement of 1.3397/1.3240 descend lay, ahead of previous range floor and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 1.3340 zone, below which, rallies should be limited.

Res: 1.3273; 1.3300; 1.3323; 1.3340

Sup: 1.3240; 1.3209; 1.3160; 1.3103

Cable remains under pressure and continued the downmove, which was interrupted by yesterday’s 1.6599/1.6677, corrective rally. Fresh weakness approaches the next target at 1.6548, 04 Apr higher low, below which psychological 1.65 support and 1.6464, low of 24 Mar 2014, are expected to come in focus. The negative scenario is additionally supported by loss of 200SMA, which signals further significant losses in the near-term. Corrective rallies on oversold near-term studies should be ideally capped under 1.6677 lower top, to keep immediate bears intact, otherwise, extended corrective action is expected to delay.

Res: 1.6600; 1.6622; 1.6651; 1.6677

Sup: 1.6561; 1.6548; 1.6500; 1.6464

The pair maintains positive overall tone and continues to trend higher, as fresh acceleration higher has taken out 103.75, 07 Mar high and approaches key barrier and short-term range top at 104.11, 04 Apr peak. Bulls remain fully in play and favor eventual break above 104.11, which will signal an end of short-term consolidative phase and expose year-to-date peak at 105.43, posted on 02 Jan 2014. Hesitation ahead of 104.11 cannot be ruled out, as studies are overbought on all timeframes. Previous peak at 103.07 offers solid support and should contain stronger dips.

Res: 104.11; 104.50; 104.83; 105.00

Sup: 103.66; 103.39; 103.07; 102.70

The pair lost traction and slumped lower, to fully retrace 0.9237/0.9342 upleg. Former low offers temporary support for near-term consolidation, before fresh extension lower, as bears took control of near-term studies and Three Black Crows reversal pattern is nearly completed. Break below 0.9237 to confirm lower top at 0.9342, where 20/100SMA’s bearish cross capped recovery attempts and open way for final push towards key support and short-term target at 0.92 higher **** zone. Corrective rallies off 0.9237, should be ideally capped at 0.9275/0.93 zone.

Res: 0.9275; 0.9300; 0.9315; 0.9342

Sup: 0.9237; 0.9200; 0.9180; 0.9132