Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro remains in near-term corrective mode off 1.3573 low and stabilizes above strong 1.36 barrier. As the pair dents important 1.3620/40 resistance zone, further recovery is seen likely. Next targets lay at 1.3651, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3699/1.3573 then 1.3662, 03 July lower top / daily cloud **** and 1.3672, 200SMA, regain of which to signal an end of corrective phase by confirming higher low formation at 1.3573 and open key 1.3699 peak for fresh attack. Hourly studies are bullish, with 4-hour structure improving and gaining momentum, which is seen supportive for fresh near-term upside action. Initial support lies at 1.36 zone, ahead of higher low at 1.3586, guarding pivotal 1.3573 support.

Res: 1.3636; 1.3651; 1.3662; 1.3672

Sup: 1.3600; 1.3586; 1.3573; 1.3563

Cable overall picture remains bullish, with near-term price action being in consolidating mode, established within 1.7100/1.7175 range. Near-term studies are neutral, despite brief spike below 1.71 support, as the price recovered ground quickly. Further consolidation is seen as likely near-term scenario, while 1.71 handle stays intact. However, caution is required as long as the price holds at the lower part of the range, as fresh attempt at range’s floor and potential break lower would signal stronger pullback.

Res: 1.7146; 1.7165; 1.7177; 1.7200

Sup: 1.7124; 1.7100; 1.7083; 1.7061

The pair trades in corrective phase and continues to trend lower, after pullback off 102.25 fresh high, lost, lost initial 102 support. Dip to 101.43, over 76.4% retracement of 101.22/102.25 upleg, keeps the downside risk for full retracement of 101.22/102.25 upleg. Negative near-term technicals remain supportive for bearish resumption incase of loss of 101.00. Corrective attempts should stay capped under 102 handle to keep the structure intact.

Res: 101.74; 101.94; 102.19; 102.25

Sup: 101.43; 101.10; 101.00; 100.80

The pair continues to trade in near-term corrective mode after extended weakness off fresh high at 0.9503, found footstep at 0.9327, just ahead of pivotal 0.9320 support. The rally so far retraced 50% of 0.503/0.9327 descend, in attempt to sustain break above psychological 0.94 barrier. Near-term studies improve on recent bounce, with clear break above 0.94 handle, required to confirm recovery, for extension towards 0.9440/60, next strong resistance zone, possibly to re-focus 0.9503 peak, on a break here. Previous consolidation tops at 0.9370 zone, should contain dips, to keep freshly established near-term bulls alive.

Res: 0.9415; 0.9436; 0.9460; 0.9503

Sup: 0.9389; 0.9370; 0.9339; 0.9327

The Euro holds steady and extends recovery off 1.3573 low, approaching barriers at 1.3651, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3699/1.3573 and 1.3666, daily Ichimoku cloud ****, ahead of 200SMA at 1.3676, where 55/200SMA death cross in forming. Positive near-term technicals favor further advance and test of these barriers, clearance of which to open pivotal 1.3699, 01 July peak and signal resumption of the uptrend from 1.35 ****. Initial support lies at 1.3635, hourly 20SMA / daily Tenkan-sen line, was cracked, ahead of 1.3619, 38.2% of the rally from 1.3473 and psychological / higher **** support at 1.3600, below which to bring bears fully in play.

Res: 1.3651; 1.3666; 1.3676; 1.3699

Sup: 1.3619; 1.3600; 1.3586; 1.3574

Cable holds overall bullish posture, with near-term price action being in consolidative mode, trading within 1.7100/1.7175 range. Studies on 4-hour chart are neutral, while positive tone prevails on hourly timeframe, after the price rallied, following brief break below 1.71 support. Further directionless trading is seen as likely near-term scenario, while 1.71 handle stays intact. However, overextended daily conditions require caution, as fresh weakness below 1.71 handle would signal stronger pullback.

Res: 1.7166; 1.7177; 1.7200; 1.7250

Sup: 1.7120; 1.7100; 1.7083; 1.7061

The pair has completed near-term corrective phase off 11.43 low, which was rejected at 101.85. Subsequent return to 101.43 level signals fresh weakness, as technicals are weak and see scope for further downside, part of larger downmove off 102.25, 03 July high. Sustained break lower to open psychological 101 support and key levels at 100.81/74, short-term congestion floor. Upside attempts should stay capped under psychological barrier / daily Ichimoku cloud **** at 102.

Res: 101.65; 101.85; 102.00; 102.19

Sup: 101.43; 101.10; 101.00; 100.80

Near-term recovery attempt off 0.9327 low has run out of steam at 0.9454 spike high, with subsequent fresh weakness erasing over 61.8% of entire 0.9327/0.9454 upleg. Sharp reversal weakened near-term structure, as hourly studies turned bearish and 4-hour technicals are losing traction. This would risk return to 0.9327 low, also daily cloud top, for eventual attempt at pivotal 0.9320 support, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9209/0.9503 ascend and short-term higher ****, loss of which to confirm top at 0.9503 and trigger further easing.

Res: 0.9390; 0.9429; 0.9457; 0.9460

Sup: 0.9357; 0.9339; 0.9327; 0.9320

The Euro trades in corrective mode off 1.3585 higher **** under formation, where a pullback from1.3649, 10 July peak, found support. The price broke above near-term range, after competing consolidative action, which was holding around 1.36 handle. Fresh rally which reversed over 76.4% of 1.3649/1.3585 downleg, sidelined near-term downside risk and turned immediate focus at the first pivotal barrier at 1.3649. Break here, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3699/1.3574, is required to confirm higher **** at 1.3585 and focus the next key barriers at 1.3699, peak of 01 July 2014, with 55/200SMA death cross at 1.3674, seen as additional protection of 1.3699 hurdle.

Res: 1.3649; 1.3662; 1.3674; 1.3699

Sup: 1.3623; 1.3600; 1.3585; 1.3574

Cable maintains overall bullish structure, with near-term price action being in consolidative mode, which so far holds within 1.7100/1.7175 range. Studies on hourly chart turned negative, as the price holds near-the lower range boundary. Technical of 4-hour chart are neutral, favoring further directionless trading, while 1.71 handle stays intact. However, daily studies, reversing from overbought zone, require caution, as break below 1.71 handle would trigger fresh weakness signal stronger pullback, towards initial 1.7061, previous peak and psychological 1.7000 support.

Res: 1.7149; 1.7166; 1.7177; 1.7200

Sup: 1.7100; 1.7083; 1.7061; 1.7000

The pair consolidates last week’s fresh weakness and extension lower, which probed 101 support area. Overall bearish structure favors eventual break below psychological 101 support and test of key supports and short-term congestion floor levels at 100.81/74, below which to resume larger downtrend off 105.43, 2013 annual high. Corrective actions face initial barrier at 101.43, ahead of 101.55, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.85/101.05 downleg, where rallies should be ideally capped. Only break above lower high at 101.85 and psychological 102 barrier, would neutralize bears.

Res: 101.43; 101.55; 101.85; 102.00

Sup: 101.20; 101.05; 100.80; 100.74

The pair trades in near-term consolidative and directionless mode, after acceleration from 0.9454 spike high, found support at 0.9359. Near-term technicals are neutral and require lift above 0.9454 barrier, to confirm bullish resumption, supported by overall positive picture and eventual attack at key 0.9503 peak. Alternative scenario sees violation of initial 0.9359 handle and renewed attempt at strong support and higher **** at 0.9320 zone, below which to trigger fresh extension of the pullback from 0.9503.

Res: 0.9407; 0.9429; 0.9454; 0.9503

Sup: 0.9375; 0.9359; 0.9339; 0.9327

The Euro failed to sustain gains off 1.3585 ****, after recovery rally stalled at 1.3639 and subsequent easing returned to 1.36 support zone. With near-term studies losing traction, downside risk increases, as loss of 1.36 handle to expose key supports at 1.3585 higher **** and low of 07 July at 1.3574. Completion of 1.3574/1.3639 corrective phase to signal resumption of larger descends off 1.3699, 01 July peak and possibly open key short-term support and **** at 1.35 zone. On the other side, ability to hold above 1.3585, would signal prolonged consolidation, while establishment of an upside direction requires fresh stretch and regain of 1.3639/49 barriers.

Res: 1.3625; 1.3639; 1.3649; 1.3699

Sup: 1.3600; 1.3585; 1.3574; 1.3559

Cable lost bullish momentum and penetrated below initial 1.71 support and previous consolidation floor. This signals stronger corrective action, off fresh high at 1.7175, with previous top at 1.7061, being tested so far, as the pair aims towards the next target and psychological support at 1.7000. Negative near-term technicals support further easing, as reversal pattern is forming on a daily chart. Corrective rallies to face initial resistances at 1.7088/1.7100 zone, with extended rallies, to be contained by 1.7150 zone.

Res: 1.7088; 1.7100; 1.7120; 1.7134

Sup: 1.7049; 1.7000; 1.6950; 1.6937

The pair moves higher, on near-term corrective rally off fresh low at 101.05, posted on 05 July. Fresh extension higher so far retraced nearly 50% of 102.25/101.05 descend, with positive hourly studies being supportive. However, 4-hour technicals are still weak and require regain of pivotal 101.85/102 barriers to confirm recovery. Otherwise, lower top formation and fresh weakness, in case of stall under 101.85, reinforced by 20/200 death cross, would remain on the table, as overall picture remains bearish and sees potential for final push towards key supports and short-term congestion floor levels at 100.81/74, loss of which to resume larger downtrend off 105.43, 2013 annual high.

Res: 101.65; 101.85; 102.00; 102.25

Sup: 101.51; 101.20; 101.05; 100.80

The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, with price action holding near the lower consolidation boundary at 0.9359, where acceleration from 0.9454 spike high, found temporary support. Near-term technicals are losing neutral bias, which requires confirmation on a break below 0.9359 handle, to bring bears back in play for return to 0.9320 breakpoint. Alternatively, holding above current supports, will keep the pair in extended consolidative mode, while lift above 0.9454 barrier is required to confirm bullish resumption, for eventual attack at key 0.9503 peak.

Res: 0.9407; 0.9429; 0.9454; 0.9503

Sup: 0.9359; 0.9339; 0.9327; 0.9320

The Euro remains under pressure and left lower top at 1.3639, after fresh acceleration lower probes levels below 1.3585/74 supports. The way towards 1.35 **** and key short-term support, is now open, as fresh weakness retraced nearly 76.4% of 1.3502/1.3699 rally. Bearish near-term studies support the notion, as daily tools are building bearish momentum for eventual completion of 1.3502/1.3699 phase, with probe below 1.35 **** / main bull trendline off 1.2042 and return to another pivotal short-term support at 1.3475, 03 Feb higher low, to complete larger, Feb/May 1.3475/1.3699 ascend. Corrective rallies should find ideal cap at previous supports at 1.3585 and 1.3600, while only sustained break above the latter would delay immediate bears.

Res: 1.3574; 1.3585; 1.3600; 1.3625

Sup: 1.3556; 1.3534; 1.3511; 1.3502

Cable rallied sharply and escaped from dangerous territory, neutralizing downside risk, which started to build up on a break below 1.71 handle. Strong rebound recovered all near-term losses and posted marginally higher high at 1.7189. This brought near-term focus back to the upside levels, for resumption of larger uptrend, being paused by 1.7177/1.7057 corrective phase, with reversal signaled by bullish engulfing pattern. Positively aligned near-term studies and already bullish larger picture, support the notion, however, close above near-term tops is required to confirm.

Res: 1.7166; 1.7177; 1.7189; 1.7200

Sup: 1.7123; 1.7108; 1.7095; 1.7068

The pair continues to move higher, on near-term corrective rally off fresh low at 101.05, posted on 05 July. Fresh extensions retraced over 76.4% of 102.25/101.05 descend, with positive near-term studies being supportive. The price action approaches the lower boundary, previous 09 July high / 200 SMA, of pivotal 101.85/102.00 resistance zone, break of which is required to confirm recovery. However, caution is still required as daily studies are weak and risk of lower top formation will persist while 102 barrier stays intact. Otherwise, break here to open next pivotal barriers at 102.25/35.

Res: 101.75; 101.85; 102.00; 102.25

Sup: 101.62; 101.42; 101.37; 101.20

Near-term recovery attempt lost traction after spiking at 0.9454 and subsequent weakness nearly fully retraced 0.9327/0.9454 upleg. This brought immediate risk at key 0.9320 higher platform and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9209/0.9503 ascend, with break here to trigger fresh extension of reversal from 0.9503 peak, which was interrupted by 0.9327/0.9454 corrective rally. Negative near-term studies support further weakness, however, hesitation ahead of 0.9320 **** could be expected, as hourly studies are oversold. Corrective rallies should stay under 0.94 barrier, to keep fresh bears intact.

Res: 0.9376; 0.9407; 0.9429; 0.9454

Sup: 0.9327; 0.9320; 0.9300; 0.9250

The Euro continues to trend lower and looks for retest of key support and near-term target at 1.35 ****, to complete 1.3502/1.3699 ascend. The third wave, which commenced from 1.3649 lower top, met its 100% Fibonacci expansion at 1.3520, where the pair entered consolidative phase, ahead of final push to 1.3502 low. Overall negative structure sees scope for further extension of larger downmove off 1.3699 peak, with the wave expected to extend to 1.3475/70, 03 Feb higher low / Fibonacci 138.2% expansion and 1.3440, 161.8% expansion. Stronger corrective actions should find good barrier at 1.3570, previous lows zone / lower platform / 50% retracement of 1.3639/1.3519 downleg.

Res: 1.3532; 1.3560; 1.3572; 1.3585

Sup: 1.3519; 1.3502; 1.3470; 1.3440

Cable trades in extended corrective phase off fresh high at 1.7189, after strong recovery rally failed to sustain gains above previous high and resume larger uptrend. Further sideways trading, shown on larger timeframes, seems to be likely scenario, as the pair failed to capitalize on 15 July strong rally and change of direction, signaled by outside day candle. Near-term structure is weakening, as the price so far dipped to the levels close to 1.71 support, previous breakpoint and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.7057/1.7189 upleg. Break here to confirm negative near-term stance and re-focus lower range levels. However, daily structure remains firmly bullish and sees fresh attempts higher favored, once corrective action is over. Fresh low at 1.7057 is expected to hold and prevent the pair from more significant pullback.

Res: 1.7149; 1.7166; 1.7189; 1.7200

Sup: 1.7111; 1.7089; 1.7068; 1.7057

The pair corrects recent rally that peaked at 101.78, with dips being so far contained at 101.44, just above 15 July spike low and 50% retracement of 101.05/101.78 upleg, where corrective actions should ideally reverse. Reversing hourly RSI and positive 4-hour structure supports such scenario and sees scope for eventual attempt through pivotal 101.85, 09 July high / psychological 102 barrier, also daily cloud ****, break of which to confirm bullish resumption and open next breakpoints at 102.25/35. Alternatively, loss of 101.40/30 support zone, current lows and Fibonacci 61.8% / previous consolidation tops, to bring bears back in play for possible return to 101 support zone.

Res: 101.61; 101.78; 101.85; 102.00

Sup: 101.44; 101.33; 101.20; 101.05

The pair remains under pressure as near-term recovery attempt off 0.9327, 03 July low, lost traction after spiking at 0.9454 and subsequent weakness fully retraced 0.9327/0.9454 upleg. This brought immediate risk at key 0.9320 higher platform and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9209/0.9503 ascend, with break here to trigger fresh extension of reversal from 0.9503 peak, which was interrupted by 0.9327/0.9454 corrective rally. Negative near-term studies support further weakness, however, hesitation ahead of 0.9320 **** could be expected, as hourly studies are oversold. Corrective rallies should stay under 0.94 barrier, to keep fresh bears intact.

Res: 0.9396; 0.9407; 0.9429; 0.9454

Sup: 0.9327; 0.9320; 0.9300; 0.9250