Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro is near-term corrective mode after fresh bears broke below 1.2930, 1.2660/ 1.2754 bull-trendline and extended under 1.29 handle, to reach fresh low at 1.2858. Recovery action was supported by yesterday’s positive close, however, no significant upside action would be expected, as long as 1.2987, yesterday’s high and psychological 1.30 barrier stay intact. Hourly studies gained traction, while 4-hour structure remains weak, along with overall negative picture, which keeps focus at 1.2786, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 2012/2014 1.2042/1.3992 ascend and 1.2750 zone, Mar/July 2013 lows, higher platform.

Res: 1.2977; 1.2987; 1.3000; 1.3044

Sup: 1.2858; 1.2800; 1.2786; 1.2750

Cable consolidates recent losses and shows near-term basing attempt at fresh lows, just ahead of psychological 1.6000 support. Upside heading near-term indicators are supportive for stronger corrective action, which was signaled by oversold daily conditions and yesterday’s Doji candle. Confirmation of such scenario requires today’s positive close. Initial resistance lies at 1.6185, 08 Sep intraday high, ahead of more significant 1.6230, week’s high, clearance of which to accelerate attempts of Monday’s gap filling and regain of pivotal 1.6330 lower top. Otherwise, narrow consolidation would be expected to precede eventual attack at 1.60 support.

Res: 1.6185; 1.6230; 1.6280; 1.6300

Sup: 1.6057; 1.6000; 1.5967; 1.5900

The pair remains well supported and continues to trend higher, with near-term price action establishing above 106 handle. Fresh gains post new 4-year highs, with upside targets at 107.20, Fibonacci 138.2% projection of the upleg from 100.81 and 108.28, Fibonacci 161.8% projection. Further gains are expected to open Sep 2008 high at 109.10, and lower top at 110.66, posted in Aug 2008. Initial supports lay at 106.00 and 105.70, where dips should ideally find footstep. Otherwise deeper pullback is expected to threaten 105.40, Fibonacci 61.8% of 104.67/106.55 and psychological 105 support, in extension.

Res: 105.70; 106.00; 106.20; 106.50

Sup: 106.00; 105.70; 105.00; 104.70

Near-term structure remains bearish, with increased pressure eventually pushing the price through near-term ****s at 0.9237 and 0.9200, as well as 0.9180, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.8658/ 0.9503 ascend/200SMA. This confirms an end of short-term congestion and further reversal off 0.9503 peak. The price is now looking for extension towards 0.9100, round-figure support and 0.9080, 50% retracement, ahead of 0.9050, weekly Ichimoku cloud ****. Overall bearish structure supports the notion, with corrective attempts to face 200SMa as initial resistance, ahead of former ****s at 0.92 and 0.9237.

Res: 0.9180; 0.9200; 0.9217; 0.9237

Sup: 0.9100; 0.9080; 0.9050; 0.9000

The Euro holds below last Friday’s fresh recovery high, with positive near-term tone and Friday’s ticks higher, marking positive daily close, after the price broke above bear-trendline, drawn from 1.2987 high. Immediate price action, however, lacked momentum for further upside, despite gap-higher opening, as gains were pared after failure to clear last week’s high, which is ticks away from 05 Sep pivotal 1.2987 high. Friday’s closing level, also 38.2% retracement of 1.2907/1.2977 upleg, offers so far good support, above which fresh attempts towards 1.2987/1.3000 barriers, are expected to commence and confirm near-term recovery resumption on a break higher. Alternatively, loss of 1.2950 handle and broken bear-trendline at 1.2938, now acting as support, as well as 1.2930, bull-trendline, drawn off 1.2858 low / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2858/1.2977 upleg, would soften near-term tone and look for fresh retracement of near-term corrective rally.

Res: 1.2977; 1.2987; 1.3000; 1.3044

Sup: 1.2950; 1.2930; 1.2900; 1.2882

Near-term price action trades in consolidative mode, with 1.62 support holding the downside, while fresh recovery peak at 1.6275, also daily Tenkan-sen line, caps for now. This keeps psychological 1.63 barrier and previous week’s closing level and the upper limit of 08 Sep opening gap, intact. Near-term studies are neutral/positive and unless 1.63 hurdle is taken out, which would allow for stronger recovery and confirm near-term bottom, risk will remain at the downside, as overall picture remains negative and fundamentals are putting additional pressure on Sterling.

Res: 1.6275; 1.6300; 1.6338; 1.6357

Sup: 1.6200; 1.6184; 1.6155; 1.6123

The pair remains positive and closed above 107 handle, with weekly chart showing long green candle, which confirms overall bulls and further attempts towards 108/110, next target zone. Near-term price action holds in narrow-range, consolidative mode, with 107.00 offering initial support, ahead of 106.50. On the upside, 107.50 is initial barrier, ahead of 108.28, Fibonacci 161.8% projection of the upleg from 100.81.

Res: 107.50; 108.00; 108.28; 109.00

Sup: 107.00; 106.50; 106.00; 105.70

The pair maintains negative tone, with additional pressure seen on weekly gap-lower opening, which brought the price below psychological 0.90 support. Long red previous week’s candle and retracement of 61.8% of 0.8658/0.9503 ascend, supports the notion of further weakness and potential attempts to fully retrace 0.8658/0.9503 rally. Corrective rallies are for now expected in light mode, with session highs at 0.9015, offering initial barrier, ahead of last week’s closing levels at 0.9040, where the next strong resistance lies.

Res: 0.9000; 0.9015; 0.9040; 0.9071

Sup: 0.8980; 0.8950; 0.8923; 0.8900

The Euro continues to trade in a sideways mode, capped for now under 1.2977/85 barriers, with corrective pullbacks being contained above 1.29, round-figure support / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2858/1.2977 corrective rally. Neutral near-term studies see scope for further consolidation, while overall negative tone, renewed with yesterday’s close in red, suggests fresh leg lower after completion of near-term consolidative phase. Strong barriers at 1.2977/85, as well as psychological 1.3000 resistance, keep the upside limited for now and only break above the latter would revive near-term bears for stronger bounce, which would sideline attempts towards short-term targets at 1.2786, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2042/1.3992 and 1.2750 higher ****.

Res: 1.2958; 1.2977; 1.2987; 1.3000

Sup: 1.2920; 1.2900; 1.2882; 1.2858

Cable’s near-term price action remains in consolidative mode, with immediate tone showing signs of weakness, as the price action moves towards the consolidation floor at 1.62 zone, after yesterday’s close in red. Recovery peak at 1.6275, has so far limited the upside action, keeping psychological 1.63 barrier and previous week’s closing level and the upper limit of 08 Sep opening gap, intact. Near-term studies are neutral and unless 1.63 hurdle is taken out, which would allow for stronger recovery and confirm near-term bottom, risk will remain at the downside, as overall picture remains negative.

Res: 1.6249; 1.6275; 1.6300; 1.6338

Sup: 1.6200; 1.6184; 1.6155; 1.6123

The pair remains positive overall, with near-term price action moving in consolidative mode, which was signaled by yesterday’s Doji candle. Important 107 support holds for now, despite brief probe below overnight, keeping immediate focus at the upside, for test of initial target at 107.50, ahead of 108.28, Fibonacci 161.8% projection of the upleg from 100.81. Extended dips, however, should be contained at 106.50/35 zone, to keep bulls unharmed.

Res: 107.38; 107.50; 108.00; 108.28

Sup: 106.92; 106.50; 106.35; 106.00

The pair maintains negative tone, with near-term corrective action off fresh low at 0.8982, being capped at 0.9050, by descending hourly 55SMA. Fresh weakness below 0.90 handle, confirms bears are in play, for fresh extension towards the next target at 0.8889, 02 Mar higher low, with full retracement of 0.8658/0.9503 ascend, being in play. Only fresh strength above 0.9050 would sideline immediate bears for stronger corrective attempt.

Res: 0.9000; 0.9020; 0.9050; 0.9071

Sup: 0.8980; 0.8950; 0.8923; 0.8900

Near-term tone is positively aligned and sees the upside targets at 1.3000/1.3040 zone, round figure / 50%/61.8% retracement of 1.3153/1.2858 downleg in focus, as the price ticked higher, approaching initial 1.30 barrier. These levels are seen as turning points and sustained break would signal stronger recovery action in the near-term. Broken-bull-trendline off Nov 2012 low, now offer support and would keep afloat bulls, developing on lower timeframes charts. On the other side, overall picture remains negative, with downside risk towards 1.2786/50 targets, expected to remain in play, as long as 1.3153 lower top and breakpoint stays intact.

Res: 1.2977; 1.2993; 1.3000; 1.3040

Sup: 1.2930; 1.2900; 1.2882; 1.2858

Cable regained strength in near-term action off 1.6159, yesterday’s correction low and cracked important 1.63 barrier. Bulls are coming in play on lower timeframes, which supports attempts through 1.63 hurdle, clear break of which is required to resume recovery rally off 1.6050, low of 10 Sep. However extension above 1.6340 is needed to fill the gap of 08 Sep and confirm recovery action, which will also neutralize bearish engulfing pattern, developing on the daily chart, which requires extension below yesterday’s low at 1.6159, to confirm reversal.

Res: 1.6309; 1.6338; 1.6416; 1.6463

Sup: 1.6247; 1.6210; 1.6184; 1.6159

The pair remains positive and regains levels above 107, with near-term price action continuing to move in consolidative mode, off fresh high at 107.38. This keeps immediate focus at the initial target at 107.50, to signal an end of consolidative phase and open 108.28, Fibonacci 161.8% projection of the upleg from 100.81. Extended dips, are expected to hold above 106.50/35 support zone, to keep bulls intact, as the pair is looking for extension towards 108/110 zone in the near term.

Res: 107.38; 107.50; 108.00; 108.28

Sup: 106.79; 106.50; 106.35; 106.00

The pair holds overall negative tone, with near-term corrective action off fresh low at 0.8982, accelerating after clearance of initial 0.9050 barrier. Hourly studies improved on a probe above 0.91 barrier and see room for further recovery action, as the rally cracked pivotal 0.9100/26, 50%/61.8% retracement of 0.9216/0.8982 zone. Sustained break above the latter to confirm hourly double-bottom formation, revive bulls on still weak 4-hour studies and spark further recovery, which would expose 200SMA at 0.9181. Alternatively, false break through 0.91 barrier, would re-focus 0.9050, now acting as support and risk return to the lows below 0.90 handle.

Res: 0.9110; 0.9126; 0.9160; 0.9181

Sup: 0.9059; 0.9050; 0.9000; 0.8980

The Euro accelerated lower post Fed and erased gains of corrective 1.2858.1.2993 rally, with lower top left at 1.2993. This confirms 1.30 zone as strong barrier, as break below previous low at 1.2858, shifts focus towards 1.2800, round-figure support and short-term targets at 1.2786, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.2042/1.3992 and 1.2750 higher ****. Near-term technicals turned bearish and support the notion, with corrective attempts off fresh session lows, ideally to be capped at 1.29 zone, near 50% of 1.2978/1.2832 downleg.

Res: 1.2888; 1.2900; 1.2920; 1.2942

Sup: 1.2852; 1.2832; 1.2800; 1.2786

Cable remains steady and returns to 1.63 zone, which was broken on yesterday’s extension to 1.6356. Subsequent corrective action found support at 1.6245, to signal an end of corrective action and fresh attempt higher, which would look for clearance of 1.6380, daily 20SMA and levels above 1.64 barrier, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6642/1.6050, to confirm recovery. Near-term studies hold positive tone and support scenario, however, negative larger picture technicals and yesterday’s Doji candle, require caution, as failure to regain fresh highs and weakness which would violate 1.6245 support, would signal an end of corrective phase and shift near-term focus lower.

Res: 1.6356; 1.6380; 1.6416; 1.6464

Sup: 1.6245; 1.6200; 1.6159; 1.6100

The pair resumes larger rally after completing near–term consolidation phase, with fresh strength of the dollar, establishing the price above 108 level. Fresh bulls are approaching initial 109 barrier, ahead of next levels at 109.50 and psychological 110.00, en-route towards 110.66, Aug 2008 peak. Overbought near-term studies suggest corrective action ahead of fresh rally. Higher lows at 107 zone, should ideally contain pullbacks.

Res: 108.85; 109.00; 109.50; 110.00

Sup: 108.36; 108.00; 107.58; 107.28

The pair’s hourly structure returned to bearish mode, after recovery rejection at 0.9110 and fresh weakness, which again took out psychological 0.9000 support. With 4-hour and daily studies maintaining negative tone and yesterday’s long red candle, focus remains firmly lower. Fresh leg lower, which commenced from 0.9110 lower top, could travel to 0.8848, its Fibonacci 61.8% expansion, initially, with extension to 0.8682, 100% expansion, to signal possible full retracement of 0.8658/0.9503 ascend.

Res: 0.9000; 0.9020; 0.9045; 0.9082

Sup: 0.8937; 0.8900; 0.8848; 0.8800

The Euro posted marginally lower low at the beginning of the week, pointing towards initial 1.28 support and short-term targets at 1.2786, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2042/1.3992 and 1.2754/44 higher ****. Fresh extension lower signal that the third wave off 1.3699 lower top of 01 July, is not completed yet and could travel towards 1.2675, its 200% expansion. Further downside is favored for now with the notion being supported by weekly bearish engulfing pattern. However, overextended daily studies require caution, as indicators are starting to reverse, with confirmation of corrective action seen on a break above last Thu/Fri lower platform at 1.2928, near 61.8% of 1.2978/1.2824 descend. Extension higher to open 1.30 breakpoint zone, for more significant upside action, expected on a break.

Res: 1.2883; 1.2900; 1.2928; 1.2980

Sup: 1.2824; 1.2800; 1.2786; 1.2754

Last Friday’s strong pullback from fresh recovery high at 1.6522, retraced 50% of entire 1.6050/1.6522 rally and over 61.8% of 1.6159/1.6500 upleg, on a dip to 1.6284. Temporary support was found here, as reversal was so far contained above bull-trendline drawn off 1.6050 low, which keeps 4-hour structure in bullish mode so far, with regain of levels above 1.64 barrier, required to re-focus 1.6522 and open key barriers above 1.66. On the other side, weakened hourly structure, along with last Friday’s close in red, see risk of further downside, which requires break below trendline support at 1.6280 and extension below 1.6230, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6050/1.6522 upleg, to confirm negative scenario.

Res: 1.6375; 1.6400; 1.6431; 1.6468

Sup: 1.6284; 1.6231; 1.6200; 1.6159

Overall bulls remain in play, as the pair broke above 109 and posted fresh high at 109.42. Positive daily and weekly close is supportive for eventual push towards psychological 110 barrier and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak, short-term targets. Corrective dips are so far contained at 108.65, just above last Friday’s low at 108.57 and 108.42, Fibonacci 38.2% of 106.98/109.42, where consolidative action should ideally find footstep. Otherwise, easing below 108 handle, is expected to signal stronger correction and delay immediate bulls.

Res: 109.17; 109.42; 110.00; 110.66

Sup: 108.60; 108.42; 108.00; 107.80

The pair remains under pressure and attempts at 0.89 support, signaling an end of consolidative 0.8925/0.8995 phase. Near-term technicals maintain negative tone, with the notion of further extension of the downleg from 0.9110 lower top, being supported by last Friday’s Outside Day candle. Break below 0.89 handle, opens 0.8857, Fibonacci 76.4% of 0.8658/0.9503 ascend and 0.8846, 05 Aug 2013 low, the last obstacles en-route towards 0.8658, 24 Jan 2014 low. Corrective actions should ideally stay capped by 0.90 barrier, while only break here would signal extended corrective action and delay immediate bears.

Res: 0.8948; 0.9000; 0.9040; 0.9079

Sup: 0.8900; 0.8846; 0.8819; 0.8800