Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro continues to gradually move lower on approach to initial targets at 1.2800, round figure support and more significant 1.2786, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend and higher **** of Mar/July 2013 at 1.2754/44. Overall picture remains bearish and sees further downside favored, with extension below 1.2744, expected to open 1.2660, Nov 2012 low, the last significant obstacle on the way towards 1.2042, low of 2012. Lower timeframes studies show negative tone prevailing on 4-hour chart and consolidation above 1.28 handle, marked by neutral hourly technicals. Consolidation high at 1.2866, offers initial resistance zone, reinforced by bear-trendline, drawn off 1.2978, along with 1.2877, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2978/1.2815 downleg. More significant barrier lies above 61.8% retracement at 1.2928 lower platform, clearance of which to expose 1.30 breakpoint. Overextended daily studies, with RSI / MACD bullish divergence developing, suggest corrective action in the near-term.

Res: 1.2877; 1.2900; 1.2928; 1.2978

Sup: 1.2841; 1.2815; 1.2800; 1.2786

Cable’s rally off 1.6284, 19 Sep corrective pullback’s low, lost traction on approach to 1.64 barrier, bringing near-term focus again at lower targets. Retest of 1.63, round-figure support and bull-trendline, drawn off 1.6050 low, sees increased risk of attack at 1.6284, with break lower to signal resumption of near-term descend from 1.6522 and expose 1.6231, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.6050/1.6522 and 1.6159, 16 Sep higher low. On the other side, holding above the trendline support, would keep hopes of fresh attempts higher in play. Regain 1.64 handle is seen as minimum requirement to confirm bullish scenario.

Res: 1.6389; 1.6400; 1.6431; 1.6479

Sup: 1.6300; 1.6284; 1.6230; 1.6200

The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, under fresh high at 109.42, posted last week. Near-term risk of further hesitation ahead of short-term targets at psychological 110 and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak increases, as hourly structure is weakening and consolidation floor at 108.57, was taken out. The notion is supported by yesterday’s Inside Day candle, which suggests a pause ahead of 110.00/110.66 targets. Fresh weakness could extend to 108/ 107.80, round-figure / Fibonacci 61.8% of 106.79/109.42 ascend, with strong support and breakpoint, lying at 107 zone.

Res: 108.57; 108.83; 109.00; 109.18

Sup: 108.23; 108.00; 107.80; 107.50

The pair corrects higher after yesterday’s fresh weakness through 0.89 handle, reached new low at 0.8851, coming ticks away from initial target at 0.8846, Fibonacci 61.8% expansion of the wave from 0.9110 / 05 Aug 2013 low. Overall negative structure keeps the downside in focus, with near-term targets at 0.88, then 0.8783, Fibonacci 76.4% expansion and 0.8682, 100% expansion, ahead of key short-term support at 0.8658, 24 Jan 2014 low. Corrective actions should be ideally capped under 0.90 barrier, while only break here would signal stronger corrective action and delay immediate bears.

Res: 0.8921; 0.8950; 0.8990; 0.9011

Sup: 0.8846; 0.8819; 0.8800; 0.8783

The Euro holds negative tone, as weekly close in red and below Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 1.2042/1.3992 ascend, confirms strong bearish stance. Break below 1.27 support comes ticks away from 1.2660, Nov 2012 low, the last strong obstacle en-route towards 1.2042, which is expected to come in near-term focus on a break and close below 1.2660. The third wave, off 1.3699 lower top, met its 200% expansion target at 1.2675 and would look for further extension towards 1.2360, Fibonacci 261.8% expansion, ahead of 1.2042 target. Corrective actions on oversold near-term studies face initial resistance at 1.27 level and should be ideally capped under 1.2760 lower platform

Res: 1.2700; 1.2760; 1.2800; 1.2815

Sup: 1.2660; 1.2600; 1.2550; 1.2500

Cable consolidates above fresh lows just above 1.62 support, following break below important 1.63 level and daily/weekly close below. Overall negative structure sees the downside favored, with key near-term term target at 1.6000, psychological support / 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. The pair rides on the third wave, which commenced from 1.6413 lower top and is looking for 1.6175, its 100% Fibonacci expansion, then 1.6084, 138.2% expansion, ahead of 1.6050, 10 Sep low, on the way towards 1.6000 target. Corrective attempts should stay under 1.6300/40 barriers, to keep the structure intact.

Res: 1.6251; 1.6275; 1.6300; 1.6339

Sup: 1.6211; 1.6200; 1.6175; 1.6159

Near-term bulls are back in play after the price broke above 109.42, previous high, confirming an end of near-term consolidative phase. Price action is looking for test of near-term targets at psychological 110 and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak. Fresh action higher is signaled by last Friday’s bullish Engulfing Pattern, which suggests further upside. Extension above 110.66 to focus 112.67, Fibonacci 76.4% of 124.14/75.55 descend. Previous range tops offer initial support, ahead of 109, round-figure and 108.46, 26 Sep higher low, above which dips should find footstep.

Res: 109.73; 110.00; 110.66; 111.00

Sup: 109.42; 109.00; 108.46; 108.23

The pair continues to trend lower, with 0.87, round-figure support, being cracked and the price met the next target at 0.8682, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the wave from 0.9110. Bears are looking for final push towards key 0.8658, low of 24 Jan, to mark full retracement of 0.8958/0.9503 ascend. The third wave could extend to 0.8519, its 138.2% expansion, once 0.8658 is taken out, however, oversold near-term technicals suggest a hesitation ahead of key 0.8658 support. Psychological 0.90 level, offers good resistance and should keep the upside attempts limited.

Res: 0.8746; 0.8810; 0.8829; 0.8895

Sup: 0.8682; 0.8658; 0.8600; 0.8550

The Euro resumed its larger downtrend which was interrupted by narrow consolidation and eventually broke and close below near-term target at 1.2660, Nov 2012 low. Fresh weakness also probed below psychological 1.26 support, on a dip to 1.2569, new two-year low, with subsequent consolidation hovering around 1.26 handle. Bears remain firmly in play and favor further downside, with no significant supports on the way towards 1.2042, July 2012 low. Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend at 1.2502, is seen as immediate target, ahead of 261.8% expansion of the wave from 1.3699 at 1.2360 and, low of May 2012, at 1.2287. Corrective actions are expected to find solid barriers at 1.2700/60 zone

Res: 1.2662; 1.2700; 1.2760; 1.2810

Sup: 1.2600; 1.2569; 1.2502; 1.2450

Cable’s overall structure is negative and favors further downside, focusing near-term target at 1.6000, psychological support and 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Descend from 1.6522, 19 Sep high, so far extended to 1.6162, retracing 76.4% of 1.6050/1.6522, coming ticks away from higher low of 16 Sep at 1.6159 and key 1.6050, 10 Sep low, the last obstacle on the way towards 1.6000 target. Corrective rallies were capped under psychological 1.63 barrier, which, should keep the upside protected. Only break above the latter would sideline bears and sparks stronger corrective action.

Res: 1.6200; 1.6228; 1.6285; 1.6300

Sup: 1.6159; 1.6100; 1.6050; 1.6000

Fresh rally has eventually cracked psychological 110 barrier, en-route to near-term target at and 110.66, Aug 2008 peak. Last Friday’s Outside Day candle signaled fresh attempts higher, with clearance of 110.00/ 110.66, to focus 112.67, Fibonacci 76.4% of 124.14/75.55 descend. Higher low at 109.54, offers immediate support, ahead of psychological 109 level, where dips should be contained.

Res: 110.07; 110.66; 111.00; 111.50

Sup: 109.54; 109.12; 109.00; 108.46

The pair maintains negative tone and moved lower, to nearly fully retrace 0.8658/ 0.9503 rally. Fresh extension below near-term consolidation floor, weakened hourly structure, signaling further weakness below 0.8658, which is expected to open immediate targets at 0.8600, round-figure, then 0.8543, 50% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079 and 0.8519, 138.2% Fibonacci expansion of the third wave from 0.9110. The upside action so far looks limited and is expected to ideally hold below 0.87 barrier. Only break above hold below 0.8760 lower platform, would delay bears.

Res: 0.8700; 0.8730; 0.8760; 0.8800

Sup: 0.8661; 0.8658; 0.8600; 0.8543

The Euro remains bearish overall, with near-term consolidative phase above fresh low at 1.2569 under way. The pair failed for the second day to close below psychological 1.26 level, which, along with yesterday’s Doji candle, signals further hesitation. Strong resistance levels at 1.2700/10, also near 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of 1.2900/1.2569 downleg, offer initial barrier, ahead of 1.2735, 50% retracement / 4-hour 55SMA and lower top / Fibonacci 61.8% at 1.2659/73. Lift and daily close above 1.2700/10, reinforced by daily 10SMA, to signal near-term basing attempt and further attempts higher, with clearance of 1.2773, Fibonacci barrier, required to confirm correction. However, bears remain favored, as larger picture technicals are negatively aligned and see room for further easing, despite overextended conditions of daily and weekly chart studies. Immediate target lies at 1.25, psychological support / Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend, with the third wave off 1.3699 lower top, capable of travelling to 1.2360, its 261.8% Fibonacci expansion.

Res: 1.2710; 1.2735; 1.2760; 1.2810

Sup: 1.2618; 1.2600; 1.2582; 1.2569

Cable maintains negative tone and sees further easing favored, with near-term focus at psychological 1.6000 support, also 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Downleg from 1.6522, 19 Sep high, met its target at 1.6159, 16 Sep higher low, also Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.6050/1.6522, coming ticks away from key 1.6050, 10 Sep low, the last obstacle on the way towards 1.6000 target. Corrective rallies were so far capped under psychological 1.63 barrier, which is expected to keep the upside protected. Only break above the latter would delay bears and signal stronger corrective action.

Res: 1.6250; 1.6285; 1.6300; 1.6339

Sup: 1.6170; 1.6159; 1.6100; 1.6050

The pair entered near-term corrective phase after cracking psychological 100 barrier and initial target. Extension below 109 support, signals further easing, as the pair approaches the next breakpoint and higher **** at 108/45/25 zone. Yesterday’s Outside Day candle, could be a signal of stronger correction, which requires break below 108.25, to be confirmed. Indicators on 4-hour chart are breaking into negative territory and support negative near-term outlook, as daily indicators started to point lower and RSI came out of overbought territory. Oversold hourly studies, however, see corrective rally in the near-term, with initial barrier at 109.10, session high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 110.07/108.54 downleg / previous low of 29 Sep, followed by 109.30, 50% retracement / hourly 55SMA and 109.49, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 110.07/108.54.

Res: 109.12; 109.30; 109.49; 109.71

Sup: 108.54; 108.46; 108.25; 108.00

The pair bounces after completing 0.8658/ 0.9503 rally, with gains cracking psychological 0.88 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8886/0.8660 downleg. Daily 10SMA and 4-hour 55SMA, so far limited rally, with sustained break above 0.8800/20 zone, required to spark stronger bounce and open next significant targets at 0.8900/25. Daily indicators are reversing from oversold territory and support further recovery. Alternatively, renewed downside risk would be expected on confirmation of lower top at 0.8814, session high.

Res: 0.8814; 0.8830; 0.8886; 0.8925

Sup: 0.8780; 0.8757; 0.8721; 0.8700

The Euro has eventually broken initial 1.2700/15 resistance, on a strong rally through three-day congestion tops. Extension above initial barriers at 1.2735/56, 4-hour cloud top / 50% retracement of 1.2993/1.2499 downleg, probes above daily 20 SMA at 1.2760, en-route towards 1.28 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% / round-figure resistance. Firm bullish tone of near-term studies, supports further extension of corrective rally from 1.2500 low, with yesterday’s close for the third consecutive day and daily RSI out of oversold zone, underpinning near-term corrective action, before larger bears re-assert for fresh leg lower. Previous barriers at 1.2700/15, now act as initial supports and should ideally keep the downside protected, while break lower would open 1.2650/20 support zone in extended pullback.

Res: 1.2800; 1.2815; 1.2862; 1.2900

Sup: 1.2758; 1.2715; 1.2700; 1.2680

The pair extended corrective rally off 1.5950 and probed through psychological 1.62 barrier, also 4-hour cloud ****, to mark over 76.4% retracement of 1.6250/1.5950 downleg. Near-term target at 1.6250 is in focus, with positive tone established on near-term studies, signaling bears are sidelined. Regain and break above 1.6250, is required to confirm extended correction scenario. Consolidative action on overbought hourly studies under 1.62 barrier, should be contained above 1.6130/00 supports, previous high / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5950/1.6196 ascend, before fresh attempt higher. Break above 1.62 to open 1.6230, daily 20SMA, ahead of key barrier at 1.6250 lower platform.

Res: 1.6215; 1.6230; 1.6250; 1.6285

Sup: 1.6150; 1.6130; 1.6100; 1.6073

The pair remains under pressure, as corrective rally from fresh low at 107.41, stalled on approach to important 109 barrier and subsequent weakness nearly fully retraced the rally. Yesterday’s Doji candle, with long upper wick, signals increased pressure. Break below 107.41 looks for psychological 107 support and more significant 106.80/64, 16 Sep higher low / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.07/110.07 ascend. Near-term studies are negative and favor further easing, with the notion being supported by south-heading daily indicators.

Res: 108.00; 108.30; 108.73; 108.81

Sup: 107.50; 107.00; 106.80; 106.64

The pair continues to move higher, in extended corrective phase off fresh low at 0.8641, posted on 03 Oct. Clearance of pivotal 0.8825 barrier, 02 Oct high, triggered fresh rally, which broke above daily 20SMA at 0.8867 and came ticks away from pivotal 0.8900, barrier. Sustained break here is required confirm near-term **** and open way for stronger correction of the larger downtrend from 0.9400, 05 Sep peak, with immediate target at 0.8931, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9400/0.8641. Hesitation at 0.89 barrier could be expected, with previous barriers at 0.8825/00, now offering solid supports.

Res: 0.8900; 0.8931; 0.8950; 0.9000

Sup: 0.8850; 0.8825; 0.8790; 0.8762