Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro continues to move in consolidative mode above fresh lows at1.35 zone, with near-term structure showing slight improvement, as fresh strength tested the first layer of resistances at 1.3577/85, 38.2% of 1.3676/1.3511 / former lower **** / daily Tenkan-sen line. Improved near-term conditions still require sustained break and daily close above 1.36 barrier to exit the current range and signal stronger rebound towards 1.3676/88, 06 June lower top / 38.2% retracement of 1.3992/1.3501 descend, level that marks the first breakpoint. Otherwise, further sideways movements would be expected in case the price action stays capped under 1.36 handle, with downside risk to remain in play as overall picture is bearish. Loss of 1.35 **** to open the downside break point at 1.3475, 03 Feb higher low / main bull-trendline off 1.2042 low.

Res: 1.3587; 1.3600; 1.3645; 1.3676

Sup: 1.3555; 1.3529; 1.3511; 1.3501

Cable remains supported and consolidates within narrow range, recent strength which eventually cracked 1.7000 barrier, on acceleration from 1.6736 higher low. Overall positive picture favors fresh phase higher, once the pair clearly breaks 1.70 barrier, with immediate target at 1.7041, Aug 2009 peak. However, extended consolidative action under 1.70 handle is seen likely near-term scenario, as condition on 4-hour chart are overbought. Previous peaks at 1.6917/19, along with psychological/ Fibonacci 38.2% retracement 1.69 support, are seen as ideal points to contain corrective dips.

Res: 1.7009; 1.7041; 1.7100; 1.7150

Sup: 1.6950; 1.6919; 1.6900; 1.6844

Near-term price action extended pullback off fresh high at 102.78 below pivotal 102.10/00 support zone, to find temporary support at 101.59, near Fibonacci 61.8% of 100.81/102.78 upleg and 200SMA. Triangular consolidation is under way, with hourly studies improving but 4-hour picture still holding negative tone. Unless the price clears 112.12, current consolidation tops, which would allow for stronger bounce, risk of re-visiting 101.59/41 low and extension towards 101.00 and 101.81/74, would remain in play.

Res: 102.12; 102.41; 102.63; 102.78

Sup: 101.70; 101.59; 101.41; 101.20

The pair lost traction and fell to 0.9349, previous low / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.09209/0.9437, after forming hourly Head and Shoulders pattern. This could be signal of more significant reversal in case the price slides below 0.9349 and attempts below 0.9313, daily cloud top psychological 0.930 support. Negative hourlies and 4-hour indicators attempting below the midlines, support such scenario. However, bullish daily tools see the action limited so far, as larger picture shows the price action entrenched within broader 0.9200/0.9437 range and still holding near-the upper range’s boundary.

Res: 0.9400; 0.9437; 0.9460; 0.9500

Sup: 0.9349; 0.9323; 0.9300; 0.9261

The Euro trades in extended consolidative mode above fresh lows at1.35 zone, with near-term price action being capped under psychological 1.36 barrier. Repeated recovery failure and subsequent quick reversal, keep the price firmly within the range, with weak near-term studies holding downside pressure in play, as larger picture is also bearish. Since no significant changes happened in past few sessions, break of either side of the range is required to open fresh direction. Break below1.35 **** to open the break point at 1.3475, 03 Feb higher low / main bull-trendline off 1.2042 low and trigger further extension of downmove from 1.3992. Conversely, sustained break and daily close above 1.36 barrier to break out of the current range and signal stronger rebound towards 1.3676/88, 06 June lower top / 38.2% retracement of 1.3992/1.3501 descend.

Res: 1.3549; 1.3587; 1.3600; 1.3645

Sup: 1.3534; 1.3511; 1.3501; 1.3475

Cable maintain overall positive tone after denting psychological 1.70 barrier and consolidates within narrow range. Positive studies favor fresh phase higher, once the pair clearly breaks 1.70 barrier, with immediate target at 1.7041, Aug 2009 peak. However, extended consolidative action under 1.70 handle is seen as likely near-term scenario, as condition on 4-hour chart are overbought. Previous peaks at 1.6917/19, along with psychological/ Fibonacci 38.2% retracement 1.69 support, are seen as ideal points to contain corrective dips.

Res: 1.6987; 1.7009; 1.7041; 1.7100; 1.7150

Sup: 1.6936; 1.6919; 1.6900; 1.6844

The pair returned to strength and rallied off 101.59 low, breaking above near-term consolidation and testing levels above 102 barrier. As recovery attempt retraced nearly 61.8% of 102.78/101.59 descend, further upside is favored in the near-term. Studies on 4-hour chart broke into positive territory and support the action, which could be delayed by pullback on overbought hourly conditions, with easing to be contained at 102 zone. Fresh strength through 102.32, Fibonacci 61.8% and 102.65, daily cloud top, to confirm bullish resumption and expose key near-term barrier at 102.78, 04 June peak.

Res: 102.30; 102.41; 102.63; 102.78

Sup: 102.10; 102.00; 101.86; 101.70

The pair remains under pressure after yesterday’s acceleration lower extended and posted new low at 0.9325, where the price entered near-term consolidative phase at 50% retracement of 0.9209/0.9437 ascend and daily Kijun-sen line support. Overall negative near-term picture sees the downside favored, with loss of psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% support at 0.93, required to confirm bearish stance and near-term top at 0.9437. Alternatively, bounce above 0.9364/68, yesterday’s lower top and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9437/0.9325, would ease immediate bear pressure and trigger stronger recovery.

Res: 0.9344; 0.9368; 0.9400; 0.9437

Sup: 0.9325; 0.9300; 0.9256; 0.9228

The Euro has gained traction and eventually broke above near-term congestion, also taking out psychological 1.36 barrier. The pair so far retraced 61.8% of 1.3676/1.3510 descend, on dollar-negative post-Fed acceleration. Signals of neater **** at 1.35 zone, require confirmation on clearance of 1.3661/76, 20SMA / 06 June lower top, above which stronger correction of 1.3992/1.3502 descend could be anticipated. Near-term studies turned positive and support further upside, however, negative larger picture technicals require caution, in case of stall under 1.3676 and lower top formation.

Res: 1.3645; 1.3667; 1.3676; 1.3722

Sup: 1.3600; 1.3587; 1.3552; 1.3534

Cable maintains overall positive tone and attempts again through psychological 1.70 barrier, after narrow-range consolidation. Positive near-term studies favor eventual break and fresh phase higher, with immediate target at 1.7041, Aug 2009 peak and 1.71 level, seen in extension. Corrective dips to face good supports at previous peaks at 1.6917/19, along with psychological/ Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 1.69 support.

Res: 1.7041; 1.7100; 1.7150; 1.7200

Sup: 1.6936; 1.6919; 1.6900; 1.6844

The pair lost traction after Fed and accelerated lower after spiking at 102.35. Fresh weakness retraced 76.4% of 101.59/102.35 upleg, signaling completion of near-term corrective phase and resumption of larger downtrend off 102.78 peak, on a break lower. Negative near-term studies are supportive, however, daily technicals are still in neutral mode and price action being underpinned by 200SMA at 101.54. Clear break here to fully establish bears for retest of psychological 101 support and key levels at 101.81/74, 21 May / 04 Feb lows and larger range floor.

Res: 102.00; 102.30; 102.41; 102.63

Sup: 101.70; 101.54; 101.10; 100.81

The pair enters near-term recovery mode and eases downside pressure after acceleration lower bottomed at 0.9325, 50% retracement of 0.9209/0.9437 ascend, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line. Swift recovery broke above psychological 0.94 barrier and nearly fully retraced corrective phase from 0.9437, which confirms higher **** formation and signals resumption of the uptrend from 0.92 ****, for eventual retest of key 0.9460 peak, 10 Apr high and two-month range top. Overbought hourly studies suggest consolidation around 0.9437 high, before bulls continue.

Res: 0.9437; 0.9460; 0.9500; 0.9550

Sup: 0.9391; 0.9364; 0.9325; 0.9300

The Euro has ended 10-day recovery phase after yesterday’s rally eventually left 1.36 zone and probed above 1.3642, 19 June peak. Final push is expected to extended corrective leg off 1.35 **** and regain key 1.3676 barrier, 06 June peak. Completion of 1.3676/1.35 bear-phase is required to signal stronger reversal and correction of 1.3992/ 1.3500 descend. Positive tone, prevailing on lower timeframes studies, supports the notion. Break below immediate support and minor higher **** at 1.3636 will face strong support at 1.36 higher **** / 50% retracement of 1.3563/1.3650, where dips should be contained, to keep near-term positive structure intact.

Res: 1.3650; 1.3676; 1.3700; 1.3730

Sup: 1.3600; 1.3582; 1.3572; 1.3563

Cable consolidates the pullback off 1.7061 peak which broke below psychological 1.70 support and found temporary support at 1.6950. Near-term studies hold neutral tone as the price moves within 50-pips range and recovery so far being capped at 1.70, now reverted to resistance and the notion being confirmed by yesterday’s Doji candle. Unless the price clearly breaks above 1.70 hurdle and confirm higher low formation, ahead of renewed attempt higher, risk would exist for fresh weakness through 1.6950, towards downside break points at 1.6920 and 1.6900, loss of which to trigger stronger pullback.

Res: 1.7000; 1.7029; 1.7061; 1.7100

Sup: 1.6950; 1.6920; 1.6900; 1.6836

The pair remains at the back foot and broke below near-term ****s at 101.80/70, to eventually test 101.59, 12 June low/ 200SMA. Weak near-term studies see risk of full retracement of 101.41/ 102.78 upleg, with extension below 102.41 handle, expected to open short-term range floor levels at 101.81/74 for retest. Weakening daily studies support the notion, while only regain of 102.15/18 highs would ease immediate bear pressure.

Res: 101.86; 102.00; 102.18; 102.35

Sup: 101.59; 101.41; 101.10; 101.00

The pair bounces off fresh low at 0.9352, where pullback from 0.9443 peak found footstep at 38.2% of 0.9209/0.9443 ascend. Regain of 0.94 handle firmed hourly studies for possible fresh attempt towards 0.9443, in case the price action sustains break. Also, 4-hour studies are attempting at their midlines and being supportive for further upside action, while price floats above 0.94 handle. Otherwise risk of return to initial 0.9350 support, also trendline support and extension to 0.932 higher ****, would remain in play while the price unable to clearly break 0.94 zone . Overall picture, however, remains bullish and sees scope for further upside after completion of near-term consolidative phase off 0.9443 peak.

Res: 0.9413; 0.9429; 0.9460; 0.9500

Sup: 0.9393; 0.9350; 0.9320; 0.9300

The Euro returned to the positive tone, closing for the week at the weekly high and starting the new week in the same attitude. As the price cracks the previous peak, with linear regression line being broken, scope is seen for final push through 200SMA at 1.3669 and completion of 1.3676/1.3511 descend, break above which to confirm **** at 1.35 zone and trigger stronger correction of larger 1.3990/1.3502 bear-leg. Bullish near-term studies support the notion, with bull-trendline, drawn off 1.3511, offering initial support at 1.3630, ahead of 1.3600, round figure / Fibonacci 38.2% and higher **** / 50% of current rally / linear regression channel support at 1.3580, above which corrective actions should find support.

Res: 1.3652; 1.3676; 1.3700; 1.3730

Sup: 1.3630; 1.3600; 1.3580; 1.3573

Cable maintain overall positive tone and trades near recent peak at 1.7061, in a consolidative action, which is expected to precede fresh rally. Studies are positively aligned and support further upside, however, further hesitation ahead of final push higher cannot be ruled out, as daily studies are extended. Break above 1.7061 to open psychological 1.7100 barrier, with 1.7331, 50% retracement of larger 2.1161/1.3501, 2007/2009 descend, expected to come in near-term focus. Psychological level and higher low at 1.7000, offers initial support, ahead of recent range floor at 1.6950, where the downside attempts should be ideally contained.

Res: 1.7049; 1.7061; 1.7100; 1.7150

Sup: 1.7000; 1.6950; 1.6920; 1.6900

The pair remains under pressure and continues to travel south after losing near-term ****s at 101.80/70 and 101.59, 12 June low/ 200SMA support. Probe below 101.41, 29 May higher low marked full retracement of 101.41/ 102.78 upleg with bearish resumption expected to open psychological 101 support and short-term range floor levels at 101.81/74 for retest. Negative studies on lower and larger timeframes support the notion for final push lower and break below multi-month congestion. Previous supports at 101.59/80 zone, now offer immediate barriers, ahead of lower tops at 102.15/18, which are expected to cap stronger corrective attempts.

Res: 101.48; 101.59; 101.73; 101.86

Sup: 101.10; 101.00; 100.81; 100.74

The pair hovers near fresh high at 0.9443, on recovery rally from 0.9350 higher **** / trendline support, but still unable to clear barrier. Further consolidation is seen likely, as fresh easing weakens hourly studies, before bulls re-assert for eventual push higher and break above near-term congestion, for resumption of larger uptrend, towards 0.9500, initial barrier. Pullback below psychological / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.9352/0.9439 upleg, confirms scenario, however, dips should be contained above 0.9352, range bottom, to avoid deeper pullback and introduce bears into near-term picture.

Res: 0.9429; 0.9460; 0.9500; 0.9526

Sup: 0.9385; 0.9350; 0.9320; 0.9300

The Euro is at the back foot in near-term price action, with corrective pullback off 1.3699 peak, probeing below trendline support and strong 1.3650 support area, previous highs of 19/25 June and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3573/1.3699 upleg. Negatively aligned hourly studies do not rule out further easing, with the notion being supported by traction losing 4-hour technicals. Daily close below 1.3650., with extension below 1.3627/21, double Fibonacci support and attempt at psychological 1.36 handle, to confirm daily reversal pattern and negative stance for stronger correction of the upleg from 1.35 zone. Otherwise, fresh strength through 200SMA at 1.3672 and eventual break above 1.37 barrier, to complete corrective action and higher low formation for fresh extension of bull-leg from 1.35 ****.

Res: 1.3680; 1.3700; 1.3735; 1.3747

Sup: 1.3640; 1.3621; 1.3600; 1.3573

Cable maintains positive tone and continues to trend higher, with break above 1.71 hurdle, confirming strong bullish tone. Completion of 1.7061/1.6950 corrective phase, resumes larger uptrend and approaches round figure barrier at 1.7200. However, overbought 4-hour and daily conditions require caution, with potential corrective actions to face immediate supports at 1.7100 and 1.7061, previous barriers. Only extension below psychological 1.7000 level and higher **** at 1.6950, would sideline bulls for stronger reversal.

Res: 1.7175; 1.7200; 1.7250; 1.7300

Sup: 1.7100; 1.7061; 1.7000; 1.6950

The pair regained traction and bounced from dangerous zone after bottoming at 101.22. Fresh strength retraced nearly 76.4% of the slide from 102.15, as the price approaches psychological 102 barrier. Sustained break here to signal further recovery for test of breakpoints at 102.15/35, regain of which to confirm recovery. Studies of lower timeframes are positive and support further upside, however, overbought hourly conditions may delay rally for consolidation. Previous high at 101.64, also Fibonacci 38.2% of the rally from 101.22, reinforced by hourly 55SMA, should hold deeper dips.

Res: 102.00; 102.15; 102.35; 102.63

Sup: 101.74; 101.64; 101.39; 101.22

The pair slumped after fresh acceleration above previous key level at 0.9460 stalled at 0.9503. Resumption of larger upleg off 0.92 higher **** is now sidelined, as fresh bearish acceleration took out important supports and attempts below bull-trendline off 0.9209 low, also higher **** and 50% of 0.9209/0.9503 upleg at 0.9355. With near-term technicals establishing in the negative territory, further weakness and test of the breakpoint at 1.6920, is seen likely. This will also confirm near-term top at 0.9503, ahead of further easing.

Res: 0.9385; 0.9411; 0.9442; 0.9463

Sup: 0.9335; 0.9320; 0.9300; 0.9278