Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro trades in a triangular consolidation after posting fresh low at 1.3294 and corrective action being capped at 1.3450. Overall tone in the near-term remains negative, as the price lacked momentum for more significant recovery towards 1.3550/60 breakpoint, regain of which is required to signal stronger recovery and shift focus higher. For now, the downside remains vulnerable, with break below triangle support at 1.3355, seen as a trigger for fresh weakness towards key near-term support and low of 07/11 at 1.3294. Violation of the latter to signal resumption of larger downtrend from 1.3831 and open 1.3214/00, 200DMA / round-figure support. Conversely, attempts above triangle resistance at 1.3415, also session highs, would provide temporary relief, however, clearance of 1.3450, recovery high and 61.8% of 1.3546/1.3294 fall, is required to avert immediate downside risk.

Res: 1.3415; 1.3448; 1.3500; 1.3546

Sup: 1.3355; 1.3316; 1.3293; 1.3275

Cable remains under pressure, as last week’s recovery rally from 1.59 ****, stalled at 1.6120, also 61.8% retracement of 1.6254/1.5901, with subsequent weakness leaving a double-top. Extension below 1.6000 handle brings key support and **** at 1.5900 at risk. Negative near-term technicals favor scenario of retesting 1.5900. Initial resistance lies at 1.6000, also hourly 55DMA, with 1.6030, recovery rally high and 50% of 1.6113/1.5955 fall, expected to cap. Eventual break below critical 1.5900 support, is seen as a trigger for more significant pullback, as clear break lower is required to confirm daily double-top formation.

Res: 1.6000; 1.6029; 1.6057; 1.6100

Sup: 1.5940; 1.5900; 1.5850; 1.5800

Near-term price action remains supported and continues to trend higher, as reversal of 99.40/97.61 fall, triggered fresh strength. Retest of initial target at 99.65, opens way towards psychological 100 barrier in the near-term, with key short-term resistance at 100.60, 11/09 peak, expected to come in focus on violation of 100 hurdle. Positive near-term technicals support the notion, however, overbought hourly studies see risk of hesitation on approach to 100 barrier. On the larger picture, studies remain positive, with break above weekly bullish pennant, suggesting further upside.

Res: 100.00; 100.21; 100.45; 100.60

Sup: 99.09; 98.90; 98.15; 97.96

The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension of near-term downmove from 0.9541, 06/11 high, tested so far 0.9323, 50% retracement of 0.8891/0.9755 rally, with break lower to open 0.9300, psychological support and daily Ichimoku cloud top. Negative near-term studies keep the downside favored, however, overextended conditions suggest that fresh weakness would be preceded by consolidative/corrective phase. Previous support zone at 0.9400/20, offer initial resistance, where corrective rallies should be ideally capped. Extension below 0.9300 to expose 0.9280, 30/09 higher low and mark full retracement of 0.9280/0.9755 bull-phase. Negative daily studies support the notion

Res: 0.9366; 0.9389; 0.9400; 0.9420

Sup: 0.9300; 0.9280; 0.9250; 0.9200

The Euro’s near-term tone turned positive, as extended consolidation broke above triangle resistance and tested the upper border of consolidative range. Hourly indicators moved above their midlines, with bullish momentum being built on 4-hour chart, supporting final attempt through strong resistance at 1.3460/70 zone, previous consolidation floor / daily Ichimoku cloud **** / 4-hour 55DMA, to confirm basing attempt and shift near-term focus higher. Extension above key barriers at 1.3546/63, 06/11 lower top / 50% retracement of 1.3831/1.3294, is required to confirm recovery. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation will remain in play, as rejection at 1.3460/70 barrier, would signal prolonged consolidative phase. Initial supports lay at 1.3415/00, while violation of 1.3358, 12/11 low, would weaken the structure.

Res: 1.3455; 1.3472; 1.3500; 1.3546

Sup: 1.3415; 1.3400; 1.3358; 1.3316

Cable eventually broke below strong support and short-term range floor at 1.59 zone, leaving lower top at 1.6116 and extending losses to initial support 1.5850 zone so far. Further weakness is expected to focus psychological 1.5800 support, as the third wave that commenced from 1.6116, could travel to 1.5763, it’s 100% expansion and 1.5751, 17/06 previous peak, to validate wave principles. Confirmation of daily double-top formation supports the notion, as near-term indicators hold in the negative territory. However, consolidative phase may be seen ahead of fresh weakness, as 4-hour studies approach oversold territory. Yesterday’s corrective rally high 1.5944, now offers initial resistance, reinforced by falling 55DMA and former consolidation floor and should ideally cap fresh upside attempts.

Res: 1.5900; 1.5944; 1.5955; 1.6000

Sup: 1.5884; 1.5853; 1.5800; 1.5763

The pair maintains positive sentiment and continues to trend higher, approaching psychological 100 barrier, with bear-trendline, connecting 101.52/100.60 peak, being cracked. Near-term technicals are positive and support the final push towards 100 barrier, above which the next significant resistance at 100.60, 11/09 peak, would come in focus. Consolidative action may delay bulls, as 4-hour indicators approach overbought territory, with 55DMA at 99.35, expected to keep the downside protected.

Res: 100.00; 100.21; 100.45; 100.60

Sup: 99.41; 99.35; 99.09; 98.90

The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension of near-term downmove from 0.9541, 06/11 high, eventually broke below key short-term support at 0.9280, 30/09 higher low. Full retracement of 0.9280/0.9755 upleg and reversal of over 50% of entire 0.8891/0.9755 recovery rally, keeps bears firmly in play. The notion is supported bearish daily studies. However, overextended technicals of lower timeframes, see consolidative action ahead of fresh push lower. The upside should stay capped by 0.9400 barrier, previous support and 50% retracement of 0.9541/0.9269 descend.

Res: 0.9310; 0.9350; 0.9373; 0.9400

Sup: 0.9269; 0.9250; 0.9221; 0.9200

The Euro remains steady and extends rebound from last week’s fresh low at 1.3294, with strong barrier at 1.3460/70 zone being cleared. The price tested psychological / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3831/1.3294 resistance at 1.3500 so far, where gains were limited by broken bull trendline off 1.2754 and daily 55DMA. Further bulls are signaled by 4-hour indicators that moved into positive territory, however, hesitation ahead of 1.35 barrier and possible stronger correction is likely, as hourly indicators are turning down. Daily studies on the other side, maintain negative tone, with current rally seen as corrective and downside risk expected to remain in play as long as another strong barriers at 1.3546/63, 06/11 lower top / 50% retracement of 1.3831/1.3294 stay intact. Break here to confirm higher low formation at 1.3294 and spark stronger recovery. Otherwise, risk of lower top and fresh weakness would remain in play. Dips off 1.35, face support at 1.3420, 38.2% of 1.3294/1.3496 and more significant 1.34 zone, round figure / 50% retracement, where pullback should be contained.

Res: 1.3500; 1.3527; 1.3546; 1.3563

Sup: 1.3420; 1.3400; 1.3389; 1.3358

Cable bounced strongly and regained levels near 1.6100 barrier, after bears probed below very strong support and short-term **** at 1.5900. Break lower proves to be false for now, as near-term technicals turned positive and avert immediate risk of stronger fall that was signaled by loss of 1.5900 support. However, overbought hurly conditions see scope for consolidative action ahead of important barriers at 1.6113/16, 07/06 / 11 peaks, regain of which and break higher is required to confirm bulls are fully in play and to shift near-term focus towards the upper range boundaries. Initial supports lay at 1.6015/00, ahead of 1.5984, 38.2% of 1.5853/1.6065, reinforced by 55DMA, where any stronger pullback should be ideally contained.

Res: 1.6065; 1.6100; 1.6116; 1.6148

Sup: 1.6015; 1.6000; 1.5984; 1.5960

The pair regained strength and retest previous highs at 99.80, after corrective pullback found footstep above psychological 99.00 support. Fresh bulls attempt again above bear-trendline connecting 101.52/100.60, at 99.66, with psychological 100 barrier coming in focus. Break higher to resume bulls off 96.93 and open next significant resistance at 100.60, 11/09 high. Positively aligned near-term studies support the notion. Only loss of 99.00 handle would sideline bulls.

Res: 100.00; 100.21; 100.45; 100.60

Sup: 99.55; 99.09; 98.70; 98.44

The pair corrects recent losses that posted fresh low at 0.9269 so far, with bounce lacking strength for regain of significant barrier at 0.9400, psychological resistance / 50% retracement of 0.9541/0.9269 downleg and being reinforced by falling 55DMA. Subsequent pullback, increases downside risk, as 0.9300 support comes under pressure, with 4-hour indicators maintaining negative tone. Hourly indicators are turning lower that supports the scenario of re-visiting 0.9300 support, loss of which to risk return to 0.9269 and signal resumption of larger downtrend. Alternatively, holding above 0.9300, would signal prolonged consolidation, while only sustained break above 0.9400 hurdle would provide near-term relief and signals basing attempt for more significant corrective action

Res: 0.9385; 0.9400; 0.9437; 0.9480

Sup: 0.9320; 0.9300; 0.9269; 0.9221

The Euro remains steady and holds around 1.35 handle, where the pair ended last week’s trading, but so far unable to clearly break psychological barrier, reinforced by daily 55DMA. Technicals on the near-term are positive, with the price being establish in a bull-channel off 1.3294, 07/11 low. Sustained break above 1.35, to open next layers of resistance at 1.3546/63, 11 high / 50% retracement of 1.3831/1.3294 downleg. On the other side, daily studies remain bearish that keeps risk of lower top, in case of upside rejection under 1.3546 in play. Violation of 1.3420/00, trendline / round figure support and mid-point of entire rally from 1.3294 is required to confirm and bring bears in play.

Res: 1.3504; 1.3546; 1.3563; 1.3600

Sup: 1.3473; 1.3430; 1.3420; 1.3400

Cable steadies above 1.6100 handle, above which, weekly close occurred. Clearance of previous highs at 1.6116/13, sees scope for further upside, with 1.6159, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.6254/1.5853 descend, coming next, ahead of psychological 1.6200 barrier. With near-term focus being shifted towards the upper boundary of short-term range, break above 1.6200 is expected to open range tops at 1.6254/59. Positive near-term studies support the notion, as daily indicators broke above the midlines and underpin the action. Initial support lies at 1.6100, with higher platform at 1.6050, expected to keep the downside protected.

Res: 1.6141; 1.6159; 1.6200; 1.6245

Sup: 1.6100; 1.6050; 1.6030; 1.6000

The pair enters corrective phase, after posting fresh high at 100.42 and closed for the week above psychological 100 level. The latter comes under pressure, as pullback on overbought near-term studies looks for further easing. Broken bear-trendline at 99.75, offers next support, ahead of strong 99.00 zone, 13/11 higher low / 17/10 previous peak and 50% retracement of 97.61/100.42, where dips should be ideally contained. Overall picture remains bullish and favors further extension and full retracement of 100.60/96.55 descend in the near-term.

Res: 100.42; 100.60; 101.00; 101.37

Sup: 99.75; 99.35; 99.00; 98.80

The pair returns to strength, as break above near-term congestion and clearance of psychological 0.9400, also 50% retracement of 0.9541/0.9269, signals basing attempt and stronger corrective action, as the 0.9269 **** is reinforced by daily 90DMA. The price attempts at 0.9420, daily 55DMA / previous low of 01/11, above which, Fibonacci 61.8% and 76.4% at 0.9437/77, come next. However, larger downmove from 0.9755, 23/10 peak, remain intact and regain of 06/11 lower top at 0.9541, is required to neutralize bears and avert risk of lower top and fresh bearish extension.

Res: 0.9420; 0.9437; 0.9477; 0.9500

Sup: 0.9385; 0.9357; 0.9330; 0.9300

The Euro stabilizes above 1.35 handle that now acts as initial support and being reinforced by daily cloud top. Extension higher bring next resistances at 1.3546, 06/11 high and 1.3563, 50% retracement of 1.3831/1.3294 fall / daily 20DMA in focus, as break here is required to confirm near-term bottom at 1.3294 and trigger further retracement of 1.3831/1.3294 descend towards 1.3600, psychological barrier. Below 1.35, bullish 20/55DMA’s crossover at 1.3480, offers next support, with bull trendline off 1.3294, reinforcing higher platform support at 1.3430.

Res: 1.3546; 1.3563; 1.3600; 1.3626

Sup: 1.3500; 1.3480; 1.3430; 1.3400

Cable steadies above 1.6100 handle, after hitting fresh high at 1.6147, with consolidative phase within 1.6100/30 range under way. Positive tone prevails on 4-hour hour chart and keeps further upside favored, however, neutral hourly conditions, see further consolidation as likely scenario. Below 1.6100, next supports lay at 1.6080, 20DMA; 1.6050 higher platform and psychological 1.6000 support / 50% retracement of 1.5853/1.6147 upleg / daily cloud ****, seen as ideal reversal point in case of deeper pullback. Upside targets at 1.6200 and key 1.6254/59 hurdles remain in near-term focus.

Res: 1.6128; 1.6147; 1.6159; 1.6200

Sup: 1.6100; 1.6080; 1.6050; 1.6000

The trades in near-term corrective phase off fresh high at 100.42, with fresh extension below 100 support and 99.75, broken bear-trendline, testing levels below 61.8% retracement of 99.09/100.42 upleg at 99.60 zone. Hourly studies turned negative and favor further downside, while overall positive tone sees current pullback as corrective phase of larger uptrend, with higher low seen above strong 99.00 support, to precede fresh leg higher. Regain of 100.42 to open 100.60 and 101 in extension. Only loss of 99.00 handle, higher low of 13/11 and 50% retracement of 97.61/100.42 rally, would neutralize bulls and allow for stronger pullback.

Res: 99.91; 100.19; 100.42; 100.60

Sup: 99.56; 99.40; 99.00; 98.80

The pair remains supported, as fresh strength emerged from 0.9351, session low and corrective phase bottom and broke above previous high at 0.9417. With 0.9437 barrier, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.9541/0.9269 descend being cracked, the way is open towards 0.9477, 76.4% retracement and psychological 0.9500 barrier, with key resistance and breakpoint at 0.9541, expected to come in focus, once the price regains 0.9500 handle. Positively aligned near-term studies support the notion, however, negative daily picture would keep the downside risk in play as long as 0.9541 barrier stays intact.

Res: 0.9477; 0.9500; 0.9541; 0.9571

Sup: 0.9417; 0.9385; 0.9351; 0.9330

The Euro extends recovery rally from 1.3294 low to eventually break above important 1.3546/63 barrier, 06/11 lower high / 50% retracement of 1.3831/1.3294 descend / daily Kijun-sen line, on extension to 1.3577 so far. Near-term bulls remain in play, with corrective pullbacks on oversold hourly conditions, expected to interrupt rally. Initial support lies at 1.3500, round figure / daily cloud top, ahead of lower top at 1.3486, also near 20/55DMA’s bullish crossover, where dips should be ideally contained. Otherwise bulls would be delayed in favor of stronger reversal towards higher platform at 1.3430. Resumption of the uptrend to eye psychological 1.3600 barrier and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.3831/1.3294 at 1.3626.

Res: 1.3562; 1.3577; 1.3600; 1.3626

Sup: 1.3500; 1.3486; 1.3430; 1.3400

Cable steadies above 1.6100 handle, despite yesterday’s spike lower that was contained at 1.6058, with near-term price action being in directionless consolidative trading. Prevailing positive tone on near-term technicals keeps the upside focused, as break above current range top at 1.6159, is expected to open 1.6159, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.6254/1.6853 first, ahead of psychological 1.6200 barrier, en-route towards key resistances at 1.6254/59. Positively aligned daily studies support bullish scenario. Initial support lies at 1.6100 and is reinforced by hourly 55DMA, ahead of 1.6058, also 4-hour 55DMA, loss of which would put immediate bulls on hold and open 1.6035/00, Fibonacci 38.2% / 50% retracement of 1.5853/1.5147 rally.

Res: 1.6147; 1.6159; 1.6200; 1.6245

Sup: 1.6100; 1.6058; 1.6035; 1.6000

The pair consolidates at 100 level, following bounce from yesterday’s correction low at 99.56. Rally above 100 barrier reached 100.24 high so far, with positive near-term structure keeping the upside attempts towards 100.42, 15/11 peak favored. Dips should be held at 99.70/56, broken bear-trendline off 101.52 / yesterday’s higher low, to keep bulls in play and avert risk of fresh weakness towards 99.00 zone, higher low of 13/11 and 50% retracement of 97.61/100.42 ascend.

Res: 100.24; 100.42; 100.60; 101.00

Sup: 99.70; 99.56; 99.35; 99.00

The pair enters near-term corrective phase after failing to clear 0.9446 barrier on the second attempt. With 0.9400 handle being lost and hourly indicators sliding into negative territory, near-term downside risk increases, as the pullback retraced 38.2% of 0.9269/0.9446 upleg so far. Further easing and violation of 0.9350 zone, yesterday’s higher low and 50% retracement, would sideline near-term bulls off 0.9269 and signal double-top formation. Conversely, finding footstep above 0.9350, is seen as initial signal of higher low formation and renewed attempt at 0.9446, above which to resume near-term corrective rally from 0.9269, 12/11 low. Positive 4-hour studies support the notion, however, regain of key near-term barrier and breakpoint at 0.9541 is required to confirm recovery and **** at 0.9270 zone.

Res: 0.9406; 0.9417; 0.7446; 0.9477

Sup: 0.9378; 0.9351; 0.9330; 0.9300