Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The euro fails to drop to yesterdays low 1.3276 making a higher low today at 1.3290. Since then it went up to 1.3315. This a reversal signal for the current downtrend from 1.3400 to 1.3276. We will change our outlook to bullish only if we see it trading go back above 1.3345 opening the way for 1.3365

Today we have Euro zone German ZEW Economic Sentiment at 09:00 GMT. German analyst and investor sentiment dropped unexpectedly in July, reaching 36.3 from 38.5 in June, contrary to predictions for a 39.6 climb. Analysts believe the slowdown in China was the major cause for this decline, endangering Germany’s export-driven economy. Investor’s climate is expected to reach 40.3 this time

Res: 1.3415, 1.3400, 1.3345, 1.3315

Sup: 1.3285, 1.3265, 1.3220, 1.3200

The cable broke 1.5480 support reaching 15444. This we mentioned before would confirm the reversal of the previous uptrend on the H1 chart. This leaves the next bearish targets at 1.5385 and 1.5300. Only a rise back above 1.5520 would renew our bullish outlook.

8:30 GMT we have UK Inflation data, British inflation surged in June to the highest level in more than a year, reaching 2.9% after registering a 2.7% rise in May. However the increase was less than the 3.0% climb predicted by analysts

Res: 1.5730, 1.5680, 1.5600, 1.5555

Sup: 1.5440, 1.5385, 1.5300, 1.5200

Yen successfully achieves a new high for the H1 chart uptrend breaking 97.35 and reaching 97.55. This leaves the next target at 97.80. The previous two days saw big gains completely reversing the previous downtrend with a rise of almost 160 pips.

The yen losing ground after the Nikkei newspaper reported that Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may propose reducing corporate taxes to offset pressure on growth from a planned increase in the national consumption tax

Res: 99.15, 98.60, 98.15, 97.80

Sup: 96.40, 95.75, 95.15, 94.70

The AUDUSD is in a downtrend on the H1 chart ever since making a double top near 0.9200 resistance continuing its fall to drop below the 33 exponential moving average and to trade outside the previous upward channel. However it did manage to find support at key level 0.9100.

Analysts at NAB assessed, “We see GDP growth softening to 2.2% in 2013, before rising to 2.6% in 2014, and a significant deterioration in the labour market is expected this year (unemployment above 6%) and next. Our forecasts have been revised a touch lower – with downside risks building. When combined with still low inflation, we expect another RBA cut, probably in November, and more cuts may follow. We remain a touch more bearish than recently revised (down) forecasts from the Government and the RBA”.

Res: 0.9316, 0.9300, 0.9240, 0.9200

Sup: 0.9100, 0.9050, 0.9000, 0.8920

We saw Gold break 1331 resistance yesterday to achieve a new top for the uptrend at 1343. Since then Gold seesawed between minor gains and losses Tuesday, with strength in the U.S. dollar serving as a headwind ahead of U.S. retail-sales data that may support the Federal Reserve’s plan to start tapering monetary stimulus. We can also notice that the 1331 resistance turned from a resistance to a support as we can see from today’s low

Res: 1376, 1368, 1360, 1348

Sup: 1316, 1300, 1288, 1270

Res: 1.3342; 1.3379; 1.3399; 1.3414

Sup: 1.3300; 1.3272; 1.3260; 1.3232

Res: 1.5655; 1.5700; 1.5721; 1.5751

Sup: 1.5600; 1.5573; 1.5538; 1.5500

Near-term structure remains weak, as corrective bounce off 97.04, last Friday’s low, remains congested at 97.80, near 50% of 98.64/97.04 downleg. Failure to clear psychological 98.00 barrier as initial resistance, would risk further downside, as a part of broader weakness from 101.52 high that is maintained by bear-trendline, currently standing at 99.20. Break below 97.00 handle would open key near-term support at 95.78, 08/08 low.

Res: 97.84; 98.03; 98.64; 98.75

Sup: 97.34; 97.18; 97.00; 96.40

The Aussie dollar maintains positive near-term tone and cracks the upper boundary of one-week consolidation range at 0.9220, as a part of larger recovery rally from 0.8846, 05/08 low. Positively aligned studies on lower timeframes keep focus at the upside, with 0.9240, daily Ichimoku cloud ****, seen as the next barrier. Break here to complete daily cup ad holder reversal pattern and open key short-term hurdles at 0.9316/43, also 50% of 0.9790/0.8846 descend, for possible stronger recovery of larger downtrend. Alternative scenario sees risk of upside rejection at 0.9220 and double-top formation that requires confirmation on a break below 0.9080/60 supports.

Res: 0.9240; 0.9255; 0.9316; 0.9343

Sup: 0.9167; 0.9140; 0.9123; 0.9072

Res: 1.3355; 1.3379; 1.3399; 1.3414

Sup: 1.3300; 1.3272; 1.3260; 1.3232

Cable continues to trend higher and posted marginally fresh high at 1.5672 on Monday, vs Friday’s 1.5655 peak. Positively aligned near and short-term technicals remain supportive for eventual attempt towards key short-term barrier and target at 1.5751,17/06 high, with interim hurdles at 1.5700, round figure and 1.5721, Fibonacci 100% expansion of the third wave of larger upleg from 1.4812 that commenced from 1.5100 higher low. The wave could travel to 1.5958, its 138.2% expansion, once 1.5751 barrier is cleared that will also confirm formation of double-bottom at 1.4830/12 lows. Previous consolidation bottom at 1.5600, offers initial support, along with former high at 1.5573, with key-near-term support, laying at 1.5420 higher platform.

Res: 1.5672; 1.5700; 1.5721; 1.5751

Sup: 1.5607; 1.5576; 1.5538; 1.5517

Near-term recovery rally off 97.04 low has lost traction after failing to hold gains above psychological 98.00 barrier. Rally stalled at 98.11, with subsequent pullback retracing 61.8% of 97.04/98.11 upleg. Weakened near-term studies increase downside risk, with acceleration seen on violation of 97.28, 55DMA and 97.04 support. Conversely, regain of 98.64, 15/08 high, is required to shift focus higher and expose trendline resistance at 99.20.

Res: 97.84; 98.11; 98.64; 98.75

Sup: 97.18; 97.00; 96.40; 96.00

The Aussie dollar came under increased pressure, as failure to clear 0.9220/40 barriers, previous high / daily Cloud ****, triggered fresh weakness that accelerated on a break below 0.9100/0.9057 support zone. Hourly studies are deep in negative territory, with 4-hour indicators breaking below the midlines that keep the downside in near-term focus, as the fall so far reversed 50% of 0.8846/0.9232 upleg. Formation of double-top at 0.9220/32 increases downside risk, with loss of psychological 0.9000 support, required to confirm and expose lower targets at 0.8900/0.8846.

Res: 0.9057; 0.9100; 0.9188; 0.9200

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8971; 0.8918; 0.8900

Res: 1.3450; 1.3482; 1.3500; 1.3518

Sup: 1.3400; 1.3380; 1.3356; 1.3310

Res: 1.5700; 1.5721; 1.5751; 1.5800

Sup: 1.5648; 1.5627; 1.5607; 1.5576

The pair extended near-term downtrend from 98.64 high, with important support at 97.00 being cracked. Fresh weakness tested 96.90, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 95.78/98.64 rally, increasing downside risk towards key support at 95.78, 08/08 low. Negatively aligned near-term studies support the notion. Daily close above 97.00 handle, sees scope for corrective action, with rallies expected to be capped under 97.85 peak, to keep the structure intact.

Res: 97.85; 98.11; 98.64; 98.75

Sup: 97.13; 96.90; 96.40; 96.00

The Aussie dollar came under increased pressure, following double-failure at 0.9220/32, where double-top has been formed. Subsequent pullback that broke below near-term **** at 0.9060 zone, retraced over 50% of 0.8846/0.9232 upleg, with further weakness seen likely, as near-term studies remain negative. With 0.9100 barrier capping, fresh extension below 0.9100, round figure support and near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, would look for test of interim supports at 0.8918/00, en-route towards key near-term support at 0.8846, 05/08 low. Alternative scenario requires regain of minimum 0.9130/50, Fibonacci 50% / 61.8% of 0.9232/0.9026 descend, to avert immediate downside risk.

Res: 0.9057; 0.9100; 0.9131; 0.9200

Sup: 0.9017; 0.9000; 0.8971; 0.8918

Res: 1.3373; 1.3400; 1.3427; 1.3450

Sup: 1.3330; 1.3310; 1.3263; 1.3232

Res: 1.5627; 1.5650; 1.5700; 1.5716

Sup: 1.5576; 1.5500; 1.5480; 1.5420

The pair extended recovery rally from 96.90 low and broke above 98.00 barrier, 61.8% of 98.64/96.90 downleg. Improved hourly conditions see potential for extension towards key near-term barrier at 98.64, 15/08 high. Positive near-term studies support the notion, however, regain of 98.64 barrier is seen as minimum requirement to complete near-term corrective phase and open way for stronger recovery towards 99.00, trendline resistance / 100DMA. Alternatively, upside rejection under 98.64 would signal prolonged sideways trade, with downside risk to revive on possible extension below 97.00 support, as daily studies are negative.

Res: 98.64; 98.75; 99.00; 99.50

Sup: 98.00; 97.60; 97.13; 96.90

The Aussie remains under pressure, as fresh weakness from 0.9220/32 double-top penetrated through 0.9000 support, with daily close occurring below the latter. The price approaches initial targets at 0.8920/00, before final push towards key support, 05/08 low at 0.8846, as negative tone dominates on all timeframes and keeps the bears in play. Corrective rallies should be ideally capped under 0.9100, also near mid-point of slide from 0.9232 to 0.8930.

Res: 0.9000; 0.9045; 0.9081; 0.9100

Sup: 0.8965; 0.8930; 0.8918; 0.8900

The euro achieved an uptrend high of 1.3450 on the 20th of August. Since then we saw a reversal attempt when it fell to 1.3300 on the 22nd. It did manage to recover most of these losses went it went back up to 1.3410. We will remain bullish as long as 1.3300 support holds with targets at 1.3410 & 1.3450. However the opposite scenario would open the way for 1.3300 & 1.3260

Res: 1.3410, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3520

Sup: 1.3330, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3230

The cable ended its uptrend on the 21st of August when it reached a high of 1.5717, since then we saw a 180 pip drop to 1.5537 which constitutes our main support for today’s session. There was an attempt last Friday to go back to the uptrend but was capped at 1.5635 resistance. Only if it manages to go above this level will we reverse our current bearish outlook on the H1 chart. Sterling is currently trading below the Ichimoku Cloud

Res: 1.5600, 1.5640, 1.5700, 1.5720

Sup: 1.5540, 1.5515, 1.5490, 1.5420

We do have a couple of bad signals for the current uptrend on the Yen. We have a triple top reversal pattern at 99.10, prices are trading outside the upward channel and its currently testing 55 moving average. If it does drop below the 55 Exponential moving average on the H1 chart it will be our final confirmation of the uptrend reversal. Or the same could be said if we see a break below 98.40 support.

Res: 98.80, 99.15, 99.35, 99.55

Sup: 98.40, 98.10, 97.85, 97.30

The Aussie reached a low of 0.8930 on the 22nd of August. In the same day it went up to 0.9040 and since then has not been able to break that resistance getting stuck in range mode. So a good signal for the bulls is if we see 1 or 2 candle closing on the H1 chart above this level. The RSI is moving horizontally which means we have weak momentum on both the buy and sell side

Res: 0.9040, 0.9100, 0.9130, 0.9150

Sup: 0.8970, 0.8930, 0.8900, 0.8850

A key level we are watching today is 1400 psychological resistance level. Gold managed to rise above this level during today’s trading (reaching 1407) however as we always say we need to see 1 or 2 candles close above this level to be sure it broke it and not just be a failed attempt. The precious ****l found support at 1390 shortly afterwards.

Res: 1400, 1407, 1415, 1425

Sup: 1390, 1378, 1368, 1355