Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro continues to trend higher and posts fresh six-week highs, after break and close above the last barrier at 1.3710 opens way towards key resistance and annual high at 1.3831. The advance is supported by risk-on mode and positive sentiment that favors eventual push to 1.3831, as extension of the third wave from 1.3398 focuses its 138.2% expansion at 1.3786, as the wave could travel to 1.3852, 161.8% Fibonacci expansion, once the price clears key obstacle at 1.3831. Near-term studies are bullish but overbought that suggests hesitation on approach to the target, with immediate supports at 1.3733, session low / 20DMA and 1.3710/00, previous peak / round figure support / 55DMA. More significant supports lay at 1.3675, 05/12 peak / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3527/1.3767 upleg and 1.3650, higher platform / 50% retracement and 1.3620, previous congestion tops / Fibonacci 61.8%, where stronger pullbacks should find ground.

Res: 1.3767; 1.3789; 1.3800; 1.3852

Sup: 1.3733; 1.3700; 1.3650; 1.3620

Cable completed near-term corrective phase, after fresh strength from 1.63 zone, where a higher **** has been created, finally broke above previous high at 1.6441, posted on 02/12. Confirmation requires daily close above the latter, with immediate focus being shifted towards 1.6500, psychological barrier and the next target. Positive near-term technicals remain supportive, however, overbought hourly conditions may cause a delay in bull-run, towards initial support at 1.6417, session low / 20DMA and psychological 1.6400 support, also 04/05 / 12 highs and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6290/1.6466 upleg. Key near-term support lies at 1.6300 higher platform and only violation of this support would trigger stronger pullback and sideline bulls.

Res: 1.6466; 1.6500; 1.6550; 1.6571

Sup: 1.6417; 1.6400; 1.6368; 1.6322

The pair returned to strength, with extension of the upleg from 101.60 ****, completing near-term corrective phase from 103.36 to 101.60. Cracking 103.36 barrier and 03/12 previous high, sees scope for eventual push towards key barrier at 103.72, 22/05 peak, to complete 103.72/93.78, short-term corrective phase and resume larger rally towards 104.20/50, next targets and psychological 105.00 barrier in extension. Positive tone prevails on near-term technicals, however, approaching overbought zone, suggests consolidative action ahead of 103.72 hurdle. Immediate supports lay at 103.15, 20DMA and 103.00, round figure support / 55DMA, ahead of 102.70, 38.2% retracement of 101.60/103.38 upleg and 102.50, 50% retracement, reinforced by ascending 4-hour 55DMA, where dips should find footstep.

Res: 103.38; 103.72; 104.00;

Sup: 103.15; 103.00; 102.70; 102.50

Near-term price action got congested within 0.9070/0.9115 range, following corrective rally rejection at 0.9128 and subsequent pullback that is so far contained at 0.9070 zone. Weakening hourly studies see the downside at risk, with trigger of fresh weakness on a break below 0.9070, as 4-hour action is still capped by 55DMA and indicators start to point lower. Extension below 0.9070, near-term ****, would signal top at 0.9128, with extension below 0.9040, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.8988/0.9128 upleg, required to re-focus strong 0.9000 support zone. Alternative scenario required break above initial 0.9128 barrier and more significant 0.9145/69 hurdles, to bring bulls back in play and signal stronger recovery.

Res: 0.9116; 0.9128; 0.9145; 0.9169

Sup: 0.9070; 0.9058; 0.9041; 0.9000

The Euro remains supported and advanced further, approaching psychological 1.38 barrier, en-route towards short-term target at 1.3831. Consolidation above previous low at 1.3740 and 4-hour 10DMA is under way, as the price, after yesterday’s rally stalled at 1.3794. Positive near-term studies are supportive, with overbought 4-hour conditions suggesting further consolidation, ahead of final push higher. Clearance of 1.3831, 22/05 year-to-date high, is expected to bring psychological 1.4000 barrier in the near-term focus. Session low at 1.3745 offers initial support, reinforced by hourly 55DMA, ahead of strong 1.3720/00 support zone, previous highs / Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3527/1.3794 ascend, where dips should find support. Otherwise, further easing towards 1.3620/00, 29/11 previous top / trendline support, would be likely.

Res: 1.3774; 1.3794; 1.3800; 1.3852

Sup: 1.3740; 1.3720; 1.3700; 1.3650

Cable trades in near-term consolidative mode, after posting fresh high at 1.6466 and pullback being contained at 1.6400 support and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.6290/1.6466 upleg. Positive 4-hour studies favor further upside, however, weaker hourly conditions may prolong consolidative phase. Resumption o larger uptrend through 1.6466 will focus psychological 1.6500 barrier next, with further extension higher to open 1.6617, November 2009 high. Conversely, extension below 1.6400, would trigger further correction towards 1.6360 higher low and near 61.8% retracement, with key near-term support at 1.63 zone to come under pressure in case of further easing.

Res: 1.6456; 1.6466; 1.6500; 1.6550

Sup: 1.6400; 1.6357; 1.6322; 1.6300

The greenback lost traction against the yen after testing previous peak at 103.36, as subsequent pullback accelerates lower, following consolidation at 102.50 zone, 50% retracement of 101.60/103.38 ascend / 55DMA. Negative tone prevails on hourly studies and favors further downside, while 4-hour indicators are heading south and support the scenario. Next supports lay at 102.28, 61.8% retracement and 102.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 76.4% retracement, loss of which to expose key near-term support at 101.60. Violation of the latter would signal stronger pullback and sideline bulls, while holding above here suggests the price is in range trading.

Res: 102.79; 102.94; 103.38; 103.72

Sup: 102.28; 102.00; 101.60; 101.00

The pair broke above near-term congestion and tested important 0.9165 resistance, 02/12 peak and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 0.9446/0.8988 downleg, where gains stalled. Subsequent pullback that was so far contained by 55DMA above 0.9100 support, round figure / Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8988/0.9165, could be seen as corrective and preceding fresh rally. Positively aligned near-term studies support the scenario, with price expected to hold above 0.9100 for renewed attempt higher, as clearance of 0.9165 barrier is required to confirm near-term **** and spark further recovery towards 0.9200. Alternatively, loss of 0.9100 handle would weaken the structure and signal further prolonged consolidation above fresh lows at 0.9000 ****.

Res: 0.9128; 0.9145; 0.9169; 0.9200

Sup: 0.9115; 0.9100; 0.9070; 0.9056

The Euro maintains positive tone and cracked psychological 1.38 barrier, opening way towards key target at 1.3831, 25/10 year-to-date high. Technicals on the lower timeframes are positive, with overbought reading on 4-hour chart and 10DMA at 1.3770 offering immediate support and holding for now consolidation below fresh high at 1.3809. Next support lies at 1.3740, overnight low and yesterday’s intraday low, with further easing to ideally find footstep at 1.3700, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.3527/1.3809 upleg. Extension above 1.3831 barrier to open 1.3852, Fibonacci 161.8% expansion of the wave from 1.3398 and psychological 1.3900 barrier in extension.

Res: 1.3796; 1.3809; 1.3831; 1.3852

Sup: 1.3770; 1.3740; 1.3700; 1.3668

Cable lost traction after price accelerated below initial supports at 1.6420/00, extending corrective pullback from 1.6466 peak to 1.6340 zone, near 76.4% retracement of 1.6290/1.6449 upleg. Negative tone prevails on hourly chart, however, 4-hour picture shows bulls still in play, as 55DMA protects the downside for now. Increased downside risk would be seen in case of losing key near-term support at 1.6300 zone, otherwise, further consolidation, with tone skewed towards the upside, is seen as likely near-term scenario. Break above 1.6400/20 barriers is required to confirm.

Res: 1.6400; 1.6420; 1.6456; 1.6466

Sup: 1.6351; 1.6337; 1.6322; 1.6290

The pair extended pullback from 130.38 peak, where strong rally from 101.60 was capped, with dips extending to 102.14 so far, keeping important 102.00 support intact for now. The price remains in near-term range between 101.60 and 103.38, holding above its midpoint, as fresh strength off 102.14, improves hourly structure. However, weak 4-hour conditions require break above psychological 103.00 barrier, to shift focus higher. Break of either boundary of the range to define near-term direction. Overall bullish picture keeps the upside favored for now, with clearance of 103.38 to open key barrier at 103.72. Only loss of 101.60 higher low, would weaken near-term structure and signal double-top formation that may result in stronger pullback in the near-term.

Res: 102.94; 103.20; 103.38; 103.72

Sup: 102.45; 102.14; 102.00; 101.60

The pair failed to capitalize on extension to 0.9165, as the resistance capped bulls and subsequent fall erased the biggest part of recovery rally from 0.8988 to 0.9165 on a fall to 0.9009. Weak near term studies keep the downside under pressure, as break below 0.9000 **** would trigger fresh extension of larger downtrend for final attempt at key supports at 0.8891/46. Bears, however, may be delayed for corrective rally on oversold hourly studies, with gains to be limited and ideally capped at 0.9100, round figure / Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9165/0.9009 descend.

Res: 0.9069; 0.9087; 0.9105; 0.9128

Sup: 0.9009; 0.8988; 0.8950; 0.8900

The Euro holds its near-term neutral tone, trading within 1.37/1.38, on week range, ahead of today’s Fed’s decision. The pair regained levels above range’s midpoint after yesterday’s dip that was contained at 1.3720, keeping 1.37 **** out of reach for now. Positively aligned hourly technicals keep the upper range boundary in focus, as 4-hour price action remains supported by rising 55DMA and gaining fresh bullish momentum. Clear break above 1.38 barrier to open key hurdle and near-term target at 1.3831, year-to-date high, above which to confirm completion of two-month corrective phase and resume larger bulls towards immediate targets at 1.3847/71, Fibonacci 138.2% / 161.8% projection and psychological 1.3900 barrier in extension. Negative scenario requires loss of 1.37 handle to trigger fresh bears and start corrective phase, with solid support seen at 1.3620, 29/11 previous peak and bull-trendline, drawn off 1.3294, 07/11 low.

Res: 1.3781; 1.3797; 1.3809; 1.3831

Sup: 1.3760; 1.3740; 1.3720; 1.3708

Cable remains at the back foot, as fresh extension of the pullback from 1.6466 broke below 1.6260, previous range tops, putting pressure at psychological 1.6200 support. Overall negative tone keeps the downside favored, with more significant 1.6160, 50% retracement of 1.5853/1.6466 upleg / daily 55DMA, expected to come in focus, once 1.6200 handle is lost. Corrective rallies should be ideally capped under 1.6350, 16/12 lower top and 20/55DMA’s bearish crossover, to keep bears intact. Any extension above here would put bears on hold and signal stronger recovery, with solid barriers at 1.6400/20.

Res: 1.6335; 1.6348; 1.6369; 1.6400

Sup: 1.6261; 1.6212; 1.6200; 1.6160

The pair extends its corrective pullback from 103.91, 13/12 peak, cracking initial support at 102.63, also bull-trendline off 101.60, on extension to 102.19, over 76.4% retracement of 102.15/103.91 upleg. Subsequent bounce, so far limited at 103 barrier, needs to clear 103.20, 50% retracement of 103.91/102.49 downleg, to sideline near-term bears and shift focus higher. Otherwise downside risk towards 102.15 and more significant 101.60 higher low, would remain in play.

Res: 103.14; 103.27; 103.70; 103.91

Sup: 102.49; 102.15; 102.00; 101.60

The pair remains under pressure and finally cracked key support at 0.8891, 30/08 low, to fully retrace 0.8891/0.9755 bull-phase. With near-term technicals holding firm bearish tone, further downside is seen favored, as the price looks for test of another key level and year-to-date low at 0.8846, posted on 05/08/2013. Consolidative action is expected to precede fresh weakness, with immediate barriers laying at 0.8968, previous consolidation ceiling and 0.9000, psychological barrier / 04/05 / 12 lows. Any bounce higher should be ideally capped at 0.91 zone, where bearish 20/55DMA’s crossover stands. Only clearance of 0.9165, lower platform and breakpoint, would signal stronger recovery.

Res: 0.8927; 0.8968; 0.9000; 0.9065

Sup: 0.8881; 0.8846; 0.8800; 0.8770

The Euro lost traction on post-Fed action, as initial reaction higher failed at 1.3809 and quick reversal below important 1.37 support weakened near-term structure, as the price dipped to 1.3648, retracing nearly 61.8% of 1.3527/1.3809 ascend. With near-term studies now being negatively aligned, increased risk of double-top formation is seen in the near-ter. Break below next supports at 1.3620/00 is required to confirm and allow for stronger corrective action towards 1.3520 higher platform. Negative scenario will also sideline short-term bulls and keep initial target and annual high at 1.3831 out of reach for now. Corrective rallies should be ideally capped at 1.3730 zone, to keep fresh bears intact.

Res: 1.3708; 1.3730; 1.3781; 1.3809

Sup: 1.3648; 1.3620; 1.3600; 1.3523

Cable regained strength and spiked to 1.6484, marginally higher high yesterday, after extension of pullback from previous high at 1.6466, finally found ground near psychological 1.62 support and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 1.5853/1.6484 ascend. Freshly established positive tone keeps the upside favored, as easing from 1.6484 peak consolidates under 1.6400 barrier. Hourly studies are in corrective descend, while 4-hour indicators broke into positive territory and support fresh attempts higher. Initial target lies at 1.6500, above which to expose 1.6571/1.6617, August 2011 highs. To maintain positive structure, dips should not exceed 1.6350, previous peaks and 50% retracement of 1.6212/1.6484 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55DMA.

Res: 1.6400; 1.6420; 1.6466; 1.6484

Sup: 1.6350; 1.6315; 1.6300; 1.6270

The pair surged through previous peak at 103.91 and psychological 104.00 barrier, on a rally from 102.60 zone, where higher platform was left. Resumption of larger uptrend, interrupted by near-term 103.91/102.50 corrective phase, looks for test of 105.00, round figure resistance and 105.58, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 2007/2011 124.14/75.55 downtrend. With positive tone dominating on lower timeframes studies, the upside remains favored, however, corrective actions on overbought conditions, may interrupt rallies. Previous tops at 103.38, also Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.60/104.35 upleg, offer good support and should ideally contain corrective pullbacks.

Res: 104.13; 104.35; 105.00; 105.58

Sup: 103.70; 103.38; 103.00; 102.65

The pair remains under pressure, as yesterday’s post-data spike higher was rejected under initial 0.8968 barrier, previous consolidation top and subsequent weakness posted fresh low at 0.8820, clearing another key support and former annual low at 0.8846. Negative tone on lower timeframes keeps the downside favored, with next targets laying at 0.0800, round figure support and 1.0769, October 2008 low. On the other side, oversold daily conditions see potential for corrective action in the near-term. Initial resistance lay at 0.8880 and 0.8900, with more significant lower platform at 0.8968, reinforced by falling 55DMA of 4-hour chart, offering solid resistance. Only break here would signal stronger corrective action and sideline bears.

Res: 0.8880; 0.8900; 0.8968; 0.9000

Sup: 0.8820; 0.8800; 0.8770; 0.8750