Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro enters near-term sideways mode following an upside rejection at 1.2576 and subsequent easing, which ended in yesterday’s close in red, but so far not making stronger impact on near-term price action, as fresh low at 1.2440, stays intact for now. Fresh bounce above 1.25 handle, signals that immediate downside risk is on hold. However, near-term tone remains negative, which suggests further consolidation, before fresh attempt lower, as overall picture is bearish. Daily 10EMA, which so far capped rallies, offers good resistance at 1.2571, with potential break here, expected to open breakpoints 1.2600, daily Tenkan-sen line and 1.2630, lower top of 30 Oct. Only break of the latter would neutralize risk of retesting 1.2440 and resumption of larger downtrend on a break.

Res: 1.2528; 1.2576; 1.2600; 1.2630

Sup: 1.2493; 1.2470; 1.2456; 1.2440

The pair returned to 1.60 zone, after spike lower, which cracked key 1.5873 support, proved to be false break. Yesterday’s red candle with long lower wick, signals further hesitation for sustained break below 1.5900, weekly cloud **** and 1.5873, 15 Oct low as magnetic 1.60 level continues to attract. Overall tone remains negative, with hourly studies being in neutral mode. On the upside, range tops / daily Tenkan-sen line and 50% of 1.6180/1.5867 downleg at 1.6025, offer strong resistance, with break and close above, to avert immediate downside risk, as short-term price action has established within 1.5870/1.6180 range. Otherwise, fresh attempts lower and close below 1.5867, would signal an eventual resumption of the downtrend from 1.7189, July 2014 peak, for test of 1.5750, June 2013 high and 1.5720, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend.

Res: 1.6000; 1.6025; 1.6037; 1.6052

Sup: 1.5953; 1.5923; 1.5900; 1.5867

The pair remains bullish overall, with fresh rally above psychological 115 barrier, posting new seven-year high at 115.50. Subsequent quick reversal, which found temporary footstep at 114 handle, could be seen as corrective action on strongly overbought 4-hour / daily studies. Overall bullish picture continues to focus the upside, with break above 115.50, to look for 117.95, Oct 2007 high and 120.26, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 147.68/75.55 descend, in extension. However, weakened hourly technicals cannot rule out further easing, with loss of 114 handle to signal stronger pullback towards 113.16 higher **** and Fibonacci 23.6% of 105.18/115.49 upleg.

Res: 114.83; 115.00; 115.50; 116.00

Sup: 114.00; 113.50; 113.16; 113.00

The pair eventually ended short-term consolidation, with break below the range floor at 0.8641, triggering fresh weakness through 0.8600 handle, to come ticks away from its next target at 0.8543, 50% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079 ascend. Yesterday’s close in red and below psychological 0.86 barrier, confirms negative scenario. Former range floor at 0.8641 now offers strong resistance and should ideally cap corrective rallies on oversold near-term studies. Potential break and close above here would delay bears. Key near-term barriers and breakpoints lay at 0.8760 lower platform / highs of the week and 0.8800 psychological barrier.



Res: 0.8641; 0.8673; 0.8700; 0.8730

Sup: 0.8600; 0.8551; 0.8543; 0.8500

The Euro returns to 1.25 zone, previous highs, reinforced by descending daily 10SMA, where yesterday’s rally stalled on repeated attempt higher. Sustained break and close above here is needed to confirm bulls, which are establishing on 4-hour chart, for further recovery towards next pivotal barriers at 1.2532 and 1.2576. Daily RSI/MACD bullish divergence supports the notion. Conversely, extended congestion could be expected on repeated rejection at 1.25 resistance, with 1.24 zone marking the downside breakpoint, loss of which will be bearish.

Res: 1.2500; 1.2532; 1.2565; 1.2576

Sup: 1.2452; 1.2438; 1.2411; 1.2393

Cable is gaining strength after eventual break above 1.59 handle followed yesterday’s rally from 1.5833 trough and so far reached 1.5940, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6180/1.5788 descend. Bullish hourly and bulls entering play on 4-hour chart, support further upside, which was signaled by yesterday’s bullish Outside Day. Also, Daily RSI/MACD bullish divergence supports further gains. Psychological 1.60 level, reinforced by daily 20SMA, offers next significant resistance, on the way to the breakpoint at 1.6020 zone, lower platform Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Only loss of 1.5833, hourly higher ****, would neutralize bulls.

Res: 1.5953; 1.6000; 1.6020; 1.6085

Sup: 1.5900; 1.5875; 1.5833; 1.5800

The pair consolidates fresh gains which took out previous peaks at 115.50 zone and probed above psychological 116 barrier. Pullback was so far contained at 115 zone, also mid- point of 113.84/116.09 upleg, with further easing allowed to 114.70, Fibonacci 61.8%, before fresh attempt higher. Overall bullish structure favors further upside, with near-term targets laying at 117.95, Oct 2007 high and 120.12, Fibonacci 61.8% of long-term 147.68/75.55 descend. Only loss of pivotal 114 support would put bulls on hold.

Res: 116.00; 116.21; 116.62; 117.00

Sup: 115.00; 114.62; 114.25; 113.84

The pair resumes recovery off 0.8539 low after eventually taking out strong 0.8680 barrier and extending above psychological 0.87 level. Fresh bulls off 0.8589 higher low, approach 50% retracement of 0.8909/0.8539 descend and are looking for test of pivotal 0.8760 lower platform and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, above which to confirm near-term bottom. Yesterday’s bullish Outside Day, as well as daily MACD bullish divergence, support the notion. Initial supports lay at 0.8680/65, with stronger pullback required to hold above 0.86 handle, to keep bulls in play.

Res: 0.8717; 0.8760; 0.8800; 0.8850

Sup: 0.8680; 0.8665; 0.8650; 0.8607

The Euro trades in triangular consolidation, with near-term tone in neutral mode and the pair lacking direction. The price moves within 1.24/1.25 range, as repeated attempts higher were capped at 1.25 zone, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA. Also, failure to clear descending daily 10SMA, keeps the downside at risk and limits upside attempts. Break above initial 1.25 barrier to open breakpoints at 1.2532/76, clearance of which is required to establish near-term bulls. Otherwise, easing below 1.2400/1.2390 support, is expected to bring bears back to play, for retest of 1.2357 low and resume larger downtrend on a break lower.

Res: 1.2488; 1.2500; 1.2532; 1.2576

Sup: 1.2417; 1.2392; 1.2357; 1.2300

Cable turned bearish in near-term picture, after yesterday’s extension of corrective rally from 1.5788 was rejected at 1.5940 and subsequent sharp reversal dipped below previous low at 1.5788. Yesterday’s close in long red candle shows strong downside pressure after unsuccessful attempt to return to pivotal 1.6000/20 barrier. Resumption of larger downtrend bring short-term targets at 1.5750, June 2013 high and 1.5720, Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend in play

Res: 1.5788; 1.5833; 1.5870; 1.5900

Sup: 1.5750; 1.5720; 1.5700; 1.5675

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase under fresh high at 116.09, posted on 11 Nov. Pullback was so far contained at 115 zone, also 50% of 113.84/116.09 upleg. Overall bullish structure favors further upside, with extension above 116.09 to open near-term targets at 117.95, Oct 2007 high and 120.12, Fibonacci 61.8% of long-term 147.68/75.55 descend. Alternative scenario requires easing below pivotal 114 support, to sideline bulls for stronger correction.

Res: 115.87; 116.09; 116.21; 116.62

Sup: 115.41; 115.00; 114.88; 114.62

The pair continues to trade in near-term uptrend from 0.8539 low of 07 Nov, with 0.8743 high being reached so far, on attempts through 0.8725/30, daily 20SMA / Kijun-sen line and 50% retracement of 0.8909/0.8539 descend. Consolidative action is expected to precede fresh attempt higher and attack at pivotal 0.8760 lower platform / near Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, clearance of which to possibly open key 0.89 resistance zone. Current consolidation floor and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8539/0.8743 upleg at 0.8660 should ideally hold, to prevent deeper pullback towards 0.8641, 50% and 0.8617, 61.8%. Extension below 0.8600/0.8590, to bring bears fully in play.

Res: 0.8760; 0.8800; 0.8822; 0.8850

Sup: 0.8700; 0.8665; 0.8641; 0.8617

The Euro remains supported in the near-term, as last Friday’s acceleration left higher **** at 1.24 zone and cracked pivotal 1.2576 barrier. Sustained break here and 1.2590, bear-trendline off 1.2884, 5 Oct daily lower top, is required to confirm near-term bottom at 1.2357 and open way for further recovery. Positive daily and weekly closes, along with existing daily RSI/MACD bullish divergence support the notion. Daily Kijun-sen line and 50% retracement of 1.2884/1.2357 downleg at 1.2621, marks immediate resistance, ahead of 1.27 zone, daily cloud **** and next pivotal barrier at 1.2763/69, 28/29 Oct lower tops. Corrective actions cracked 1.2500/1.2490 support zone, previous consolidation tops and near 50% of 1.2397/1.2576 upleg, signaling deeper pullback, which should be contained above 1.24 ****.

Res: 1.2520; 1.2545; 1.2576; 1.2590

Sup: 1.2480; 1.2465; 1.2425; 1.2400

Cable maintains negative tone after last week’s acceleration broke and closed below 1.5720, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Fresh weakness probed levels below 1.56 handle, where temporary support was found. Subsequent bounce, signaled by Friday’s Hammer, suggests corrective action, ahead of fresh weakness, which targets 1.5385/75, 100% expansion of the third wave from 1.6522 / Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Corrective rally was for now limited at 1.5734, keeping the next strong barrier at 1.58 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5591 / daily Tenkan-sen line, out of reach, for now.

Res: 1.5670; 1.5700; 1.5734; 1.5765

Sup: 1.5618; 1.5600; 1.5590; 1.5550

The pair corrects fresh strength which cracked psychological 117 barrier. Pullback was so far contained at 115.44, 50% of 113.84/117.03 upleg, with fresh attempts higher expected to follow, as bulls remain firmly in play on all timeframes. Sustained break above 117 barrier to open targets at 117.95, Oct 2007 peak and 120, psychological barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend. Near-term structure would weaken more significantly in case dips violate 115 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% / higher low of 12 Nov, which marks the last strong support on the way to pivotal 114 support zone.

Res: 116.00; 116.30; 116.81; 117.03

Sup: 115.44; 115.06; 114.88; 114.62

The pair holds positive tone and hit levels close to psychological 0.88 barrier, after eventual break above pivotal 0.8760 lower platform. Last Friday’s positive close, with daily candle’s longer lower shadow, signaling fresh bulls, as weekly close also occurred in green. Sustained break above 0.88 barrier to resume bulls and look for the next strong barrier at pivotal 0.89 zone, lower platform. Corrective actions should find good support at 0.87 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8539/0.8794 rally, with extended easing expected to be contained above 0.8646 higher low, to keep near-term up-trend from 0.8639 intact.

Res: 0.8794; 0.8822; 0.8850; 0.8880

Sup: 0.8744; 0.8700; 0.8670; 0.8650

The Euro failed to sustain Friday’s gains and clear pivotal 1.2576/93 barriers, 04 Nov lower top / bear-trendline off 1.2884 and reversed back to 1.2420 zone, Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.2397/1.2576 rally. Near-term technicals weakened on a pullback, however, 4-hour cloud ****, which contained dips, keeps near-term price action supported for now, guarding key supports at 1.2415, bull-trendline off 1.2357 low and1.24 zone higher ****. Bounce through 1.25 barrier, previous range tops and 50% of 1.2576/1.2442 downleg, is required to bring near-term bulls back to play, for renewed attempt higher. On the other side, larger picture bears were reinforced by yesterday’s long red candle and keep the downside at risk. Violation of 1.2440 to open 1.2400 ****, below which would signal an end of corrective phase from 1.2357, 07 Nov low.

Res: 1.2480; 1.2506; 1.2525; 1.2546

Sup: 1.2442; 1.2415; 1.2400; 1.2357

Cable trades in near-term consolidative phase off 1.5591, 14 Nov fresh low, which was so far capped by descending 4-hour 20EMA at 1.5734. Weak near-term studies do not see much of an upside potential for now, as yesterday’s close in red, with long upper shadow of daily candle, neutralized Friday’s Hammer reversal signals. Further consolidative action is expected to precede fresh leg lower, which is expected to target 1.5375, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Alternative scenario requires extension above 1.58 barrier, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5591 descend, to delay downside attempts. Key resistance and breakpoint lies at 1.5940 lower platform.

Res: 1.5690; 1.5734; 1.5765; 1.5805

Sup: 1.5618; 1.5591; 1.5550; 1.5500

The pair trades in consolidative phase off fresh high at 117.03, which was signaled by yesterday’s Doji. Hourly studies regained traction, as bounce from pullback’s low at 115.44, where hourly double-bottom was left, retraced over 76.4% of 117.03/115.44 reversal and created a higher **** at 116.40. This supports fresh attempts at 117.03 barrier, to resume larger uptrend towards next targets at 117.95, Oct 2007 peak and 120, psychological barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend. However, prolonged consolidative action should be anticipated, ahead of Japan Government’s news announcement, with 116.40/00, offering good supports. Only loss of 115.44/00 support zone, would revive near-term bears.

Res: 116.77; 117.03; 117.50; 117.95

Sup: 116.40; 116.00; 115.44; 115.00

The pair reversed from fresh recovery high, just under psychological 0.88 barrier and found support at 0.87 zone, also 38.2% retracement of 0.8539/0.8794 corrective rally. Near-term structure remains positive, as pullback was contained above bull-trendline, drawn off 0.8539 low, with daily RSI/MACD bullish divergence, supporting fresh attempts higher. However, yesterday’s close in red warns of recovery attempt stall, as the price failed to close above cracked pivotal barrier at 0.8760. Break and close below 0.87 handle, also trendline support, would confirm reversal and expose next pivot at 0.8646, 14 Nov higher low.

Res: 0.8762; 0.8794; 0.8822; 0.8850

Sup: 0.8693; 0.8666; 0.8646; 0.8636

The Euro regained positive tone in the near-term picture, following yesterday’s positive close, which occurred above 1.25 handle. Bounce from 1.2442 hourly higher ****, peaked at 1.2544, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2576/1.2442 upleg, capped by descending daily 20SMA and bear-trendline off 1.2884 peak. Daily MACD/RSI bullish divergence still signals further upside which requires sustained break above the trendline resistance and 1.2576, 04/17 Nov peaks, to spark stronger recovery. Otherwise, prolonged range-trade, with downside risk seen on violation of 1.25 support, could be expected in the near term.

Res: 1.2546; 1.2576; 1.2610; 1.2683

Sup: 1.2510; 1.2480; 1.2442; 1.2425

Cable came under pressure and fully reversed 1.5591/1.5734 corrective rally, on renewed probe below 1.56 handle. Negative tone prevails on all timeframes and favors eventual clear break below 1.56, to open way towards next target at 1.5375, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. However, hesitation at psychological support cannot be ruled out, as near-term studies are approaching oversold territory. Rallies through initial 1.5700 barrier, to face strong resistance at 1.5734, corrective peak and just above 38.2% retracement of 1.5939/1.5591 descend. Only break here and 1.58 barrier, also 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5591 descend, would delay and signal near-term **** formation.

Res: 1.5700; 1.5734; 1.5765; 1.5800

Sup: 1.5623; 1.5590; 1.5550; 1.5500

The pair remains firm and posts fresh multi-year highs, after clearing psychological 117 barrier. Yesterday’s positive close, with past two days candles with longer lower shadow, confirm strong bullish tone, which focuses immediate target at 117.95, Oct 2007 peak and psychological 120 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend, expected to come in near-term focus, previous peaks at 117 zone, offer immediate support, with 116.30/00 zone expected to ideally contain dips.

Res: 117.95; 118.50; 119.00; 119.60

Sup: 117.00; 116.80; 116.30; 116.00

The pair remains under pressure and probes below 0.8646/36 higher low / 61.8% retracement of 0.8539/0.8794 corrective rally, after completion of hourly H&S pattern. Negative near-term structure favors further weakness for full reversal of the rally, seen on clear break below 0.8636. Next supports lay at 0.86, round-figure and 0.8589 trough, below which way opens towards key 0.8539, 07 Nov low. Yesterday’s positive close so far looks like a pause in the downmove and only daily close above 0.8745 lower platform would sideline immediate downside risk.

Res: 0.8646; 0.8680; 0.8700; 0.8745

Sup: 0.8620; 0.8600; 0.8589; 0.8539