Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro averts immediate downside risk, on a bounce from 1.2360 lows, where double-bottom is under formation and offering solid support for now. Yesterday’s positive close signals possible stronger recovery attempts, however, bounce stays for now capped under initial barrier and first breakpoint at 1.2450, broken bull-channel support / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2597/1.2360. Break here to open 1.2480, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line and psychological / Fibonacci 61.8% barrier at 1.2500, above which to confirm recovery. Hourly indicators are struggling above the midlines, while negative tone prevails on a larger timeframes and sees limited upside action for now. Unless the price returns above 1.25 barrier, which would expose pivotal 1.26 barrier in the near-term, prolonged consolidative phase is expected to precede fresh attempts lower. Break below 1.2360 **** to resume broader downtrend and look for key targets at 1.2100, trendline support and 1.2042, low of 24 July 2012.

Res: 1.2450; 1.2480; 1.2500; 1.2541

Sup: 1.2414; 1.2395; 1.2372; 1.2360

Cable remains in extended consolidation above fresh lows at 1.5590, with current range tops being reinforced by descending 4-hour 55EMA. Yesterday’s Outside Day, along with crack of initial dynamic barriers of the daily chart, 10SMA and Tenkan-sen line, would mark near-term **** and signal stronger recovery. Today’s close above congestion tops at 1.5735, is seen as minimum requirement to spark corrective action. Regain of the next significant barrier at 1.58, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5588 downleg, to confirm and open pivotal 1.5939, lower top. However, caution is required as near-term studies show improvement but larger picture remains bearish. Repeated failure at range ceiling, to signal prolonged consolidation, with downside risk in play.

Res: 1.5712; 1.5735; 1.5765; 1.5805

Sup: 1.5646; 1.5624; 1.5590; 1.5550

Near-term structure weakened, as recovery attempts off 117.33 low, where the pair attempts higher ****, failed to sustain gains above 118.35 lower tops and subsequent weakness increases risk of fresh attack at 117.33. The price probes below hourly cloud **** at 117.75, the last significant support ahead of 117.33, below which to complete hourly failure swing for stronger pullback, as daily studies are overbought. Sustained break below 117.33 to open 117.10/00, daily Tenkan-sen line / psychological support, with 116.51, Fibonacci 38.2% of 112.56/118.96 ascend, in extension. Alternative scenario requires break above 118.56, overnight’s recovery rejection, to re-focus pivotal 118.96 top.

Res: 118.20; 118.56; 118.71; 118.96

Sup: 117.68; 117.33; 117.10; 117.00

AUDUSD Near-term structure turned bearish after the pair completed 5-day corrective rally from 0.8564 to 0.8720. Return to 0.8564 low, also cracked near-term bull-trendline, connecting 0.8539/0.8564 lows, exposing pivotal 0.8539 support, 07 Nov low. Yesterday’s close in red confirms negative stance for eventual completion of 0.8539/0.8794 correction. Break lower to signal an end of near-term consolidative phase and resumption of larger downtrend, towards next targets at psychological 0.8500 level and 0.8460, bear-trendline, connecting 2008 peak at 0.9848 and Jan 2014 low at 0.8658.



Res: 0.8568; 0.8600; 0.8618; 0.8660
Sup: 0.8500; 0.8460; 0.8441; 0.8400

The Euro accelerated from 1.2440 trough and eventually broke above 1.25 barrier. Rally spiked at 1.2530, however, subsequent consolidation was not able to hold 1.25 handle, where the pair closed yesterday. Corrective pullback should be contained at 1.2440 higher low, to keep the structure intact for fresh attempts through 1.25 barrier. Completion of Three White Soldiers reversal pattern and break above 1.2480, daily 10/20SMA’s bull-cross / daily Tenkan-sen line, requires close above 1.25, to confirm reversal and resume recovery rally towards next barriers at 1.2545, bear-trendline, drawn off 1.2884 peak, then 1.2563, daily Kijun-sen line, ahead of breakpoint at 1.2597, 19 Nov lower top of larger descend. Conversely, extension of pullback from 1.2522 high and close below 1.2440 higher low / 50% retracement of 1.2360/1.2530 upleg, to sideline near-term bulls and mark top at 1.2530.

Res: 1.2500; 1.2530; 1.2545; 1.2563

Sup: 1.2465; 1.2440; 1.2400; 1.2371

Cable broke above near-term range tops and cracked important 1.58 barrier, psychological level / Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.5939/1.5588 downleg / daily 20SMA. Corrective action off fresh high at 1.5823, is under way and should be ideally contained at 1.5735, Former range tops / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5588/1.5823 upleg, while extension below 1.5700 support, 50% retracement, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, would undermine near-term bullish structure. Fresh attempts above 1.5800/23 barriers, to open 1.5884, daily Kijun-sen line, for possible full retracement of 1.5939/1.5588 bear-leg, on extension.

Res: 1.5776; 1.5800; 1.5823; 1.5856

Sup: 1.5745; 1.5735; 1.5700; 1.5678

Near-term structure remains weak and the pair cracked **** at 117.33, following recovery rejection at 118.56 and subsequent descend. Repeated close in red suggests further weakness, which requires close below 117.33/20, previous **** / daily Tenkan-sen line / daily 20SMA, to be confirmed. Fresh extension of the pullback from 118.96 peak, to look for 116.80, 4-hour cloud ****, then 116.51, Fibonacci 38.2% of 112.56/118.96 ascend, below which, acceleration towards 115.44 trough, could be expected. Corrective rallies should be ideally capped under 118 barrier, just above mid-point of 118.56/117.25 downleg.

Res: 117.56; 117.75; 118.00; 118.28

Sup: 117.20; 117.00; 116.80; 116.51

AUDUSD The pair bounces after break below key 0.8539 support, also probed below psychological 0.85 level. However, yesterday’s positive close could be a signal of stronger recovery, in case the price returns above 0.8636, daily Tenkan-sen line and 50% of 0.8794/0.8784. Further recovery and close above 0.8700, daily Kijun-sen line, to confirm false break and re-focus pivotal 0.88 barrier. Otherwise, corrective rally is expected to leave lower top, ahead of fresh weakness, as overall picture remains bearish and keeps short-term focus at the downside.

Res: 0.8636; 0.8565; 0.8700; 0.8720
Sup: 0.8561; 0.8528; 0.8511; 0.8478

The Euro remains under pressure, with overnight’s fresh weakness erasing 20-pips gap higher opening and retesting 1.2425 zone, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.2360/1.2530 upleg. Near-term higher **** is forming here, for consolidative phase, before fresh attempt towards 1.2400 level, Fibonacci 76.4% and short-term **** at 1.2360, which contained last week’s fresh attempts lower. Sustained break below 1.2360, to resume larger descend from 1.3992 and open 1.2100, bull-trendline, connecting 2005/2010 lows and pivotal 1.2042, July 2012 low.
Last Friday’s close in red and below daily Tenkan-sen line, favors further downside attempts, which may be delayed by extended consolidative action above 1.2360, signaled by positive weekly close. Weak technicals of lower timeframes, keep the upside attempts limited for now, as overall picture remains bearish, however, lift above last week’s high at 1.2530 and bear-trendline, drawn off 1.2884, peak of 15 Oct at 1.2540, would delay bears for attack at key 1.2597 barrier, November’s high and consolidation range top, above which to confirm double bottom at 1.2360 and spark stronger corrective action.

Res: 1.2488; 1.2500; 1.2530; 1.2566

Sup: 1.2425; 1.2400; 1.2331; 1.2300

Cable remains under pressure, with fresh weakness under way and probing below near-term **** at 1.5590. Last Friday’s long red candle signals continued pressure from 1.5823, recovery rejection, with weekly close in Doji with long upper shadow, suggesting further consolidation with strong selling interest. The notion is supported by close below Fibonacci 61.8% of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend, with fresh extension of the third wave from 1.6522, 19 Sep lower top, expected to travel to 1.5387, its 100% Fibonacci expansion, with psychological 1.5000 support, expected to come in near-term focus. However, further hesitation ahead of clear break below 1.5590 ****, could be expected, with 1.5700, 50% retracement of 1.5823/1.5583 downleg, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line, offering good resistance, ahead of lower top at 1.5740, where extended rallies should be capped.

Res: 1.5700; 1.5740; 1.5770; 1.5800

Sup: 1.5600; 1.5583; 1.5550; 1.5500

The pair maintains positive near-term tone and eventually completed 118.96/117.22 corrective phase, by cracking 119 barrier. Positive daily and weekly close, keeps bulls in play for final push towards psychological 120 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend and lower boundary of strong 120/124 resistance zone. Corrective action on overbought near-term studies, so far tested 118.00 zone, hourly higher **** and just above Fibonacci 61.8% of 117.22/119.12 upleg, where dips should be contained, to keep bulls in play for fresh attempts higher. Otherwise, loss of 118 handle, would signal prolonged consolidative action, with pivotal support at 117.22, expected to come in focus.

Res: 118.58; 119.02; 119.50; 120.00

Sup: 118.00; 117.67; 117.22; 117.00

AUDUSD The pair comes under increased pressure, following weekly gap-lower open, after last Friday’s negative close occurred ticks above psychological 0.85 handle. The second long red previous week’s candle, also suggests further weakness, as the pair’s fresh extension lower took out bull-channel support at 0.8460, opening way towards psychological 0.80 support, on close below the latter. Consolidative action above fresh lows near 0.84 handle, is expected to precede fresh weakness. Session high at 0.8480, also previous low of 26 Nov, offers initial resistance, ahead of 0.8500 and last Friday’s high at 0.8538.

Res: 0.8500; 0.8538; 0.8574; 0.8600
Sup: 0.8415; 0.8400; 0.8380; 0.8350

Yesterday’s bumpy ride, which bounced from the levels near 1.24 support and probed briefly above 1.25 barrier, ended day in Doji candle and near the mid-point of entire rally from 1.2417 to 1.2505, trading in triangular consolidation. This keeps near-term tone in neutral mode, ranging between 1.24 and 1.25 boundaries, as the price consolidates around daily 20SMA and Tenkan-sen line. Appearance of daily MACD bullish divergence is supportive for fresh attempts higher, with sustained break above 1.25 hurdle and pivotal 1.2530 high, also bear-trendline, drawn off 1.2884 high, required to shift near-term focus higher and test the upper part of larger 1.2360/1.2597 range. Otherwise, rejection at 1.25 barrier, would increase risk of retesting 1.2417/00 lows and possible return to pivotal 1.2360 support and near-term ****.

Res: 1.2480; 1.2505; 1.2530; 1.2566

Sup: 1.2451; 1.2430; 1.2400; 1.2360

Cable rallied strongly yesterday after brief probe below 1.5590 ****. Bounce to 1.5761, near Fibonacci 76.4% retracement of 1.5823/1.5583 descend, was capped by descending daily 20SMA, which, for now, keeps pivotal 1.5800/23 barriers intact and downside risk in play. Hourly technicals are still positive and need to hold above 1.5700, session low, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line / 10 SMA, to keep the upside in focus, as 4-hour studies are neutral. Sustained break below 1.57 handle to increase risk of return to 1.5590 ****, otherwise, fresh upside attempts will remain on the table, however, limited action is expected while 1.5823 breakpoint stays intact.

Res: 1.5761; 1.5800; 1.5823; 1.5856

Sup: 1.5700; 1.5672; 1.5651; 1.5625

The pair shows positive signals, as recovery rally from yesterday’s pullback’s low at 117.85 accelerated and probes above 118.63, Fibonacci 61.8% of 119.12/117.85 descend. The pullback was contained by rising daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line, which keeps the structure positive, despite yesterday’s close in red, after the price cracked psychological 119 barrier. Hourly indicators are moving into positive territory, which, along with positive 4-hour studies, keeps focus at the upper targets and keeps near-term correction floor and pivotal support, intact. Break above 119.12 high to expose psychological 120 barrier, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend.

Res: 118.82; 119.12; 119.50; 120.00

Sup: 118.50; 118.21; 118.00; 117.85

AUDUSDThe pair enters near-term corrective phase off yesterday’s fresh low 0.8415. Rally filled yesterday’s gap lower and tested pivotal barrier at 0.8538, last Friday’s high and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 0.8613/0.8415 downleg, break of which to spark further recovery and open 0.8613 breakpoint, 27 Nov high / daily 20SMA. Yesterday’s positive close, signals consolidation of the latest weakness from 0.88 zone, as immediate downside risk is sidelined. However, overall picture remains bearish and keeps the downside attempts favored, but bears may be further delayed in case of clearance of pivotal 0.8613 barrier.

Res: 0.8540; 0.8567; 0.8600; 0.8613
Sup: 0.8500; 0.8468; 0.8415; 0.8400

The Euro remains under pressure, as yesterday’s fresh weakness left lower top at 1.2505 and subsequent acceleration lower fully retraced corrective rally and broke below 1.2360 ****. Yesterday’s long red candle, with negative technicals on all timeframes, favors further downside, as the pair met its next target at 1.2325, Fibonacci 161.8% expansion of the wave from 1.2505 lower top. Psychological 1.23 support offers immediate support, with near-term focus at

break and close below pivotal 1.2360 support, to extend the wave from 1.2505 lower top, towards 1.2325, its Fibonacci 161.8% expansion and psychological 1.23 support, with focus at 1.2106, trendline support and 1.2042, July 2012 low. Daily 10/200SMA’s bear cross at 1.2450 should cap extended corrective rallies.

Res: 1.2390; 1.2418; 1.2450; 1.2475

Sup: 1.2321; 1.2300; 1.2284; 1.2250

Near-term structure is negatively aligned, after corrective rally was capped by descending daily 20SMA at 1.5761 and fresh weakness pushed the price in the lower part of near-term 1.5590/1.5823 range. Yesterday’s close in red and below 1.57 handle, daily Tenkan-sen line / 10SMA, confirms near-term bearish stance and eyes 1.5590 **** for retest. Break here to confirm an end of consolidative phase and resumption of larger downtrend, towards target at 1.5373, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.4812/1.7189 ascend. Rallies should be ideally capped at 1.5700/23 barriers, Tenkan-sen line, 20SMA, while only sustained break above 1.5761 would neutralize immediate downside risk.

Res: 1.5668; 1.5700; 1.5723; 1.5761

Sup: 1.5617; 1.5590; 1.5550; 1.5500

The pair remains supported, as extension of recovery rally from Monday’s corrective low eventually broke above 119 barrier. Near-term price action is consolidating above 119, now support, for final push towards targets at 120.00/12, psychological barrier / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend. Yesterday’s positive close supports the notion, with price action being supported by rising daily 10SMA / Tenkan-sen line at 118.30, where stronger corrective actions should be contained.

Res: 119.42; 119.61; 120.00; 112.12

Sup: 119.11; 118.80; 118.45; 118.30

AUDUSDThe pair remains under pressure and continues to trend lower, as overnight’s acceleration eventually broke below 0.84 support. Yesterday’s red candle with long upper shadow, confirms downside pressure, with the wave from 0.8794, 17 Nov lower top, capable to travel to 0.8268 and 0.8174, its 138.2% and 161.8% Fibonacci expansion, with psychological 0.8000 support being in short-term focus. Session high at 0.8465, offers strong resistance, with Monday / yesterday’s highs at 0.8530/40, seen capping stronger rallies.

Res: 0.8431; 0.8465; 0.8500; 0.8540
Sup: 0.8386; 0.8350, 0.8315; 0.8300