Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro remains firm ahead of today’s FOMC release, in a renewed attempt above 1.3400 barrier. With brief consolidation off yesterday’s high at 1.3414 being contained by 20 day EMA at 1.3380 zone, the upside remains in near-term focus, as positive studies are supportive. Immediate target lies at 1.3433, 20 Feb high, ahead of more significant double-Fibonacci resistance at 1.3480 zone, 76.4% retracement of 1.3710/1.2744 / 138.2% expansion of the upleg from 1.2795. Corrective dips should be ideally contained at 1.3380/50 zone, to keep the structure intact.

Near-term structure weakened as the price broke below initial support at 1.5615, extending corrective pullback off 1.5751 high to 1.5564. Subsequent bounce to 1.5669, where 55 day EMA limited recovery, lacks momentum for extension towards 1.5700 zone, as hourly indicators are still in the negative territory. Increased risk of lower top would come on a slide below 1.5615, while regain of 1.5700 would bring bulls back in play. Caution is required as daily studies are starting to point lower and price returned below 200 day MA, with previous sessions double-Doji candles, suggesting possible hesitation of larger uptrend from 1.5000 ****. Break below 1.5564/00 supports is required to confirm reversal, otherwise, clearance of 1.5700/51 would signal resumption of an uptrend.

The near-term structure improved, as the price eventually broke above 95.00, initial resistance, however, gains failed to regain next barrier at 95.79. Subsequent reversal risks violation of 95.00, now reverted to support, loss of which to signal and end of near-term corrective phase and confirm double-op formation. With 4h studies still in the negative territory, such scenario is seen likely, unless price breaks above 95.79 and 96.0, 55 day EMA that would give an initial signal of basing attempt.

The pair remains under pressure, as recovery rejection under 0.9672 barrier and fresh slide to 0.9430 zone, weakens the near-term structure. Increased risk exists of double-top formation and fresh weakness that would confirm an end corrective phase and re-expose fresh low at 0.9324. Bearish 20/55 day EMA’s crossover at 0.9550, offers solid resistance and break here would avert immediate downside risk. However, only lift above 0.9672 would provide relief and resume near-term corrective rally.

The Euro remains in a free fall that commenced on yesterday’s repeated rejection at 1.3414 and accelerated post Fed. Losses were interrupted by overnight’s 1.320601.3300 correction, with fresh weakness under way and looking for test of 1.3200 and 1.3176 higher platform / Fib 38.2% of 1.2795/1.3414. Break here is required to confirm reversal and top at 1.34 zone, and open way for more significant correction of 1.28/1.34 upleg. Negative near-term studies keep the downside focused, with corrective bounces seen on oversold conditions. Overnight’s high at 1.3300 offers solid resistance, while only break above 1.3350 zone, would put bears on hold.

Cable remains under heavy pressure, as completion of 4h failure swing on a break below 1.5564 previous low, accelerated bears. Dips extended below 38.2% of 1.5007/1.5751 ascend at 1.5467 and heading towards psychological 1.5400 support and 1.5380, 50% retracement, next targets. Near-term bears are fully in play, with pause in descend, expected from oversold hourly studies. Previous **** and support at 1.55, reinforced by falling 20 day EMA now offers good resistance, ahead of strong 1.5554/64 zone, 50% retracement of entire fall / 18 June low, expected to cap any stronger rally

The pair extends strong rally that commenced from 95.00 support, with brief pause seen under 97.00, yesterday’s high. Fresh acceleration that cleared next barrier at 98.00, looks for test of 98.75, 50% retracement of larger 103.72/93.78 fall and 99.00/27, round figure / 10 June high, on extension. Near-term technicals maintain firm bullish tone, with possible interruption in the rally to be triggered by overbought 1 and 4h chart conditions. Previous highs at 97.00 zone offer solid support and should contain any stronger pullback.

The pair remains under strong pressure, as sharp fall from yesterday’s upside rejection at 0.9555 accelerates below psychological 0.9200 support. Bears remain unobstructed and further extension lower would look for 0.9141, Fib 38.2% of larger 2008/2011 0.6007/1.1079 ascend and psychological 0.9100 support. Brief pauses in current fall, could be expected on oversold conditions, yet no signal of reversal being generated on near-term studies. Initial resistance reinforced by 20 day EMA, lies at 0.9300 zone, ahead of previous low at 0.9324.

The Euro maintains negative sentiment, with extension of pullback from1.3414, below 1.3100, Fib 50% of 1.2795/1.3414, posting fresh three-week low at 1.3058. Consolidative /corrective phase is under way, with price attempting through the upper boundary of consolidation range, for test of initial resistance at 1.3160, and 1.3200, Fib 38.2% of 1.3414/1.3058 fall. Slightly improved hourly studies see some upside potential, however, larger picture’s negative structure keeps the downside favored, as long as 1.3253, last Friday’s high stays intact. Bearish resumption below 1.3058, to open 1.3031, Fib 61.8% and psychological 1.3000 support next.

Near-term recovery phase off fresh low at 1.5342, retraced 61.8% of 1.5528/1.5342 downleg, at 1.5460 zone, where gains were capped. Positive hourly structure sees potential for further recovery towards more significant 1.5500 barrier, Fib 38.2% of 1.5751/1.5342 slide and 1.5528, last Friday’s high, however, prevailing negative tone on 4h chart would keep the downside at risk, as long as the price holds below initial 1.5500 barrier. Initial support lies at 1.5425 and is reinforced by 20 day EMA, with break here and psychological 1.5400 level, to hint lower top formation and fresh weakness towards 1.5342 and possible bearish resumption towards 1.5300 zone, initial target and Fib 61.8% of 1.5007/1.5751 ascend.

The pair is trading in near-term consolidative mode, after extending rally from 93.78 to 98.69, near 50% of 103.72/93.78 descend. Hourly studies are weak, as the price hovers close to the range floor, however, more constructive 4h technicals see potential for further recovery, as the price is supported by 20 day EMA and 20/55 bullish crossover, with 96.85 expected to hold. Immediate targets lay at 99.00 and 99.27, 10 June high, break of which to confirm bottom at 93.78 and open way towards psychological 100 barrier, also Fib 61.8% of 103.72/93.78. Alternative scenario sees increased downside risk on violation of 96.85 support, with 96.23, 50% of recovery rally and 96.00, round figure support, expected to come in focus once 96.85 is cleared.

The pair trades in a near-term consolidative mode, after fresh extension of larger downtrend, posted new low at 0.9146. With the upside being limited at 0.9300 and near-term studies negatively aligned, fresh extension lower and test of next target at 0.9100, would be likely near-term scenario. Conversely, lift above 0.9300 and 0.9324, 11 June low, would delay bears in favor of possible stronger corrective action towards 0.9400/30, next resistance zone. However, overall bearish tone, do not see potential for more significant recovery action for now.

The Euro consolidates recent losses, trading above 1.2980, daily cloud top, where basing attempt is becoming evident. Bounce above 1.3000 that retraced over 61.8% of last Friday’s sharp fall from 1.3102 to 1.2990, improves hourly structure, however, the price remains within the consolidative range. Bullish divergence on 4-hour chart signals possible stronger rally that requires break and daily close above 200DMA at 1.3070 and clearance of 1.3100 barrier, to confirm **** and allow for further correction towards 1.3148/99, Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% retracement of 1.3414/1.2983 fall. On the other side, failure to break above 1.3100 would signal further sideways trade and keep the downside at risk.

Res: 1.3069; 1.3102; 1.3148; 1.3200

Sup: 1.3048; 1.3020; 1.3000; 1.2983

Res: 1.5248; 1.5277; 1.5300; 1.5342

Sup: 1.5200; 1.5164; 1.5109; 1.5032

The pair continues to trend higher, as three consecutive days of higher closing, followed consolidative phase, showed by last week’s triple Doji. The price approaches initial target and psychological barrier at 100.00, also near Fibonacci 61.8% of 103.72/93.78 fall, with upper targets being in focus. Short-term studies remain positive, with 4-hour RSI / MACD bearish divergence, suggesting possible hesitation ahead of important 100 resistance. Supports at 99.00/98.70 are seen as ideal reversal point of any stronger dips, with break above 100.00 barrier, expected to open 100.45, 06/06 high and 101.00, round figure resistance.

Res: 99.85; 100.00; 100.45; 101.00

Sup: 99.50; 99.00; 98.70; 98.51

The Aussie dollar fell below 0.9200 after the short-term corrective phase, off 0.9100 zone, was capped at 0.9250, 61.8% retracement of 0.9343/0.9111. Weakened hourly technicals see increased downside risk as 4-hour studies are still negative. Break above initial 0.9250 barrier is required to revive bulls, while clearance of 0.9343, last week’s high and near 50% retracement of larger 0.9555/0.9111 fall, would spark further recovery and open next targets at 0.9385/0.9400. Otherwise, return to 0.9100 **** and possible resumption of the larger downtrend would be the likely scenario, as larger picture bears remain fully in play.

Res: 0.9200; 0.9230; 0.9281; 0.9300

Sup: 0.9150; 0.9111; 0.9050; 0.9000