Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro trades in extended consolidative phase, off fresh high at 1.3831, with price holding for now within 1.3760/1.3831 range. Negatively aligned hourly studies keep the downside risk in play while the price stays below 1.38 barrier, as 4-hour indicators are heading south and support the notion. Break below initial support at 1.3760 and more significant 1.3740 higher low / 50% retracement of 1.3649/1.3831 upleg, to spark stronger pullback and expose next layer of supports at 1.3700 zone. Overall bullish structure, however, keeps the upside favored, with 1.3900 target seen on extension through 1.3831.

Res: 1.3800; 1.3817; 1.3831; 1.3857

Sup: 1.3760; 1.3740; 1.3700; 1.3650

Cable lost traction, as the upside remains capped at 1.62 barrier and fresh weakness through 1.6114, near-term range floor and psychological 1.61 handle, weaken the structure. The price reached the mid-point of larger 1.5892/1.6254 range, with negatively aligned technicals, seeing risk of extension towards the range floor and higher **** at 1.59 zone. Loss of psychological 1.6000 support is required to confirm. On the larger picture, one-month range-trading remains in play, however, break below the main bull trendline and south-heading daily indicators, increase the downside risk. Break of either side of the range is required to define fresh direction.

Res: 1.6123; 1.6163; 1.6207; 1.6245

Sup: 1.6063; 1.6030; 1.6000; 1.5977

Overall bears off 98.99 peak remains in play, as recovery attempt off fresh low at 96.93 were for now capped by 55DMA / bear-trendline at 97.75. Weak near-term studies keep the downside at risk, as long as the price holds below the trendline, with lower top formation seen as likely near-term scenario. Return to 97.00 support zone, the last obstacle en-route to 96.55 target, is required to confirm bearish resumption. Otherwise, prolonged corrective action would be seen on a lift above 97.75. However, only regain of 98.47 lower top, would bring bulls fully in play and shift near-term focus higher.

Res: 97.75; 98.00; 98.18; 98.47

Sup: 97.43; 97.16; 96.93; 96.55

The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension from 0.9621 lower top approached psychological 0.9500 support. With over 50% of 0.9280/0.9755 rally being retraced so far, risk of further retracement increases, with break below 0.9500 handle seen as a trigger. Oversold near-term conditions, however, see consolidative phase preceding fresh weakness that would look for 0.9460, 61.8% and higher platform at 0.94 zone, once price loses 0.95 handle. On the upside, initial resistance lies at 0.9570 lower platform, with regain of 0.96 barrier, expected to face strong resistance at 0.9621/28, lower top / 50% retracement of 0.9755/0.9502 downleg, where stronger rallies should be capped.

Res: 0.9554; 0.9571; 0.9600; 0.9628

Sup: 0.9500; 0.9461; 0.9400; 0.9388

The Euro came under increased pressure as pullback from fresh high at 1.3831 cracked strong support at 1.3740, 23/10 low / 50% retracement of 1.3649/1.3831 upleg. The fall as temporarily contained by 55DMA / 4-hour cloud top at 1.3732, however, negatively aligned near-term technicals see risk of further retracement. Clear break below 1.3740 to open strong supports at 1.37 zone and pivotal 1.3650 support, 03/10 high / 21/10 low, in extension. Corrective rallies should be capped at 1.38 zone, where yesterday’s repeated attempt higher failed, to keep near-term bears in play.

Res: 1.3752; 1.3773; 1.3817; 1.3831

Sup: 1.3732; 1.3710; 1.3692; 1.3650

Cable remains under pressure, as loss of 1.61 support zone retraced over 61.8% of 1.5892/1.6254 rally. Near-term focus shifts towards the lower boundary of larger 1.5892/1.6254 range, with price approaching psychological 1.6000 support. This also marks the last significant obstacle on the way towards 1.59 **** and pivotal support. Prevailing negative tone on near-term technicals keeps the downside favored, however, consolidation above 1.6000 is expected to precede fresh weakness. Previous range floor at 1.6114 and bearish 20/55DMA’s crossover at 1.6130, are expected to cap.

Res: 1.6221; 1.6245; 1.6254; 1.6259

Sup: 1.6022; 1.6000; 1.5977; 1.5920

The pair remains supported and heads higher, as break above near-term congestion at 97.75 and psychological 98.00 barrier, resumes recovery rally off 96.93, 25/10 low. Technicals are positive and support further gains, with break above bear-trendline at 98.37 and regain of important 98.47, 22/10 lower top and Fibonacci 76.4% of 98.99/96.93 descend, expected to open way for final push towards key near-term barrier at 98.99, 17/10 peak. Consolidative actions on extended hourly studies, could precede fresh extension higher, with previous range top at 97.75, now offering solid support and expected to keep the downside protected. Only loss of higher platform at 97.45 would neutralize bulls.

Res: 98.47; 98.69; 98.99; 99.12

Sup: 98.09; 97.75; 97.45; 96.93

The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension from 0.9621 lower top, broke below psychological 0.9500 handle and extended losses to 0.9458, Fibonacci 61.8% of 0.9280/0.9755 rally. The price found temporary support here, as oversold near-term conditions signal corrective action before bears return to play. Negative near-term studies support the notion and keep the downside favored for extension towards strong support and **** at 0.9400 zone. Corrective rallies should not exceed 0.9600 barrier, to keep near-term bears intact.

Res: 0.9519; 0.9554; 0.9583; 0.9621

Sup: 0.9458; 0.9424; 0.9400; 0.9388

The Euro showed no changes compared to the previous sessions, as the price remains entrenched within 1.3440/1.3520 consolidative range. Slight improvement of hourly studies pushed the price to the upper range part, however, overall negative tone keeps pivotal support at 1.3440/20 zone at risk, with break lower to spark fresh bear-leg and expose next targets at 1.3370, daily 90DMA and at 1.3300 zone, 50% retracement of 1.2754/1.3831 rally. Corrective rallies above 1.35 barrier should ideally stay capped under 1.3600/40, to keep bears in play.

Res: 1.3523; 1.3565; 1.3590; 1.3640

Sup: 1.3467; 1.3441; 1.3420; 1.3400

Cable regained strength and accelerated recovery rally from 1.59 **** and critical support, reinforced by daily cloud top, to retrace over 50% of 1.6254/1.5901 descend on a bounce to 1.6094 so far. Approaching important 1.6100/20 resistance zone, keeps focus at the upside, as positive near-term studies support further advance. However, larger picture range trading remains in play, with break of either side required to define fresh direction. Daily studies are losing traction that keeps the lower boundary of the range vulnerable for now.

Res: 1.6094; 1.6116; 1.6148; 1.6171

Sup: 1.6061; 1.6020; 1.6000; 1.5980

The pair extended near-term corrective rally off 98.15 and averts immediate downside risk, seen on violation of 98.00 support. Near-term technicals are positive, as the price approaches initial 98.84 barrier and key resistance at 98.99, regain of which to complete 98.99/96.93 corrective phase and open way for further upside. Higher low and bull trendline at 98.40, offer initial support and should ideally contain dips, while 98.15/00 zone is seen as a breakpoint and break low would revive bears.

Res: 98.74; 98.84; 98.99; 99.12

Sup: 98.40; 98.15; 98.05; 97.80

The pair remains under pressure, with near-term corrective rally from fresh low at 0.9420, being limited, as brief breaks above 55DMA at 0.9520, failed to sustain gains for now, as daily 20DMA limited rallies at 0.9535. Slightly improved near-term studies are still lacking momentum for stronger recovery that would keep sideways trade in play, as long as range top at 0.9535 and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9755/0.9420 descend cap. Weakening daily technicals keep the downside at risk and as long as price holds below 0.9600 handle, regain of which would shift focus higher, retest of initial 0.9420 support and fresh weakness, seen on violation of 0.9420/00 support, would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 0.9535; 0.9548; 0.9587; 0.9621

Sup: 0.9480; 0.9462; 0.9420; 0.9400

Spot Gold remains under pressure, as fresh low and 50% retracement of 1251/1361 corrective rally at 1306 has been retested. The price trades in a consolidative mode, with near-term studies maintaining negative tone and keeping the downside at risk. Break below 1306/00 supports to open 1293 and 1277, Fibonacci 61.8% and 76.4% supports. Consolidation top at 1322, along with previous support, now resistance at 1327, is expected to keep the upside limited for now.

Res: 1315; 1322; 1327; 1335

Sup: 1305; 1300; 1293; 1277

The Euro steadies above 1.35 handle, ahead of ECB today, with no significant rallies seen so far, after the pair posted marginally fresh high at 1.3546 yesterday. Hourly studies are positively aligned, along with north-heading 4-hour indicators that suggests further recovery, with 1.36 zone, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3831/1.3441 downleg / 55DMA, being in near-term focus. Overall picture, however, remains bearish and current break in strong fall from last week could be seen as corrective phase, ahead of fresh weakness. Rallies should be ideally limited at 1.3640/80, Fibonacci 50% / 61.8% respectively, before bears re-assert. Break below pivotal 1.3440/20 support, Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 1.2754/1.3831 rally and main bull-trendline, drawn off 1.2754, where bears found temporary footstep, is expected to trigger fresh leg lower and expose 1.33 zone, also 50% retracement of 1.2754/1.3831.

Res: 1.3546; 1.3590; 1.3640; 1.3682

Sup: 1.3500; 1.3467; 1.3441; 1.3420

Cable consolidates recent gains from 1.59 **** that cracked strong 1.6100/15 resistance and retraced nearly 61.85 of 1.6254/1.5901 descend. The price found footstep at initial 1.6060 support, however, weakening hourly studies, see risk of deeper pullback, before bulls take control, as 4-hour structure remains bullish. Ideal reversal point is seen at 1.6030 higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5901/1.6116 ascend, while any extension lower and potential break below psychological / 50% retracement 1.6000 support, would bring bears fully in play. On the upside, sustained break above 1.61 barrier, is required to keep positive tone and shift near-term focus towards the upper levels of one-month 1.5900/1.6259 range.

Res: 1.6094; 1.6116; 1.6148; 1.6171

Sup: 1.6061; 1.6034; 1.6000; 1.5983

The pair trades in near-term consolidative mode, off fresh high at 98.84, with the downside protected at 98.50 for now. Holding above bull-trendline from 96.93, keeps bulls in play for eventual retest of key 99.00 barrier, break of which to open 99.65 and psychological 100 resistance. Studies on lower timeframes remain positive and favor further upside, as daily indicators head north after emerging from negative territory and support the notion. Key supports lay at 98.15/00 and only break lower would sideline bulls.

Res: 98.74; 98.84; 98.99; 99.12

Sup: 98.54; 98.40; 98.15; 98.05

The pair remains under pressure, with near-term corrective rally from fresh low at 0.9420, being capped at 0.9541. Fresh weakness to 0.9460, previous low and 61.8% of 0.9420/0.9541, weakens hourly structure, however, holding above here, would keep positive tone on 4-hour studies, for possible renewed attempt higher. Clearance of 0.9541 barrier and 55DMA, is required to confirm higher low formation and avert downside risk of return to 0.9420 support. Larger picture shows bears gaining pace and while 0.9541 stays intact, risk of resumption of bear-trend from 0.9755, would remain in play.

Res: 0.9500; 0.9541; 0.9587; 0.9621

Sup: 0.9462; 0.9420; 0.9400; 0.9388

Spot Gold remains in sideways mode, with prevailing neutral tone seen while the price holds between 1305/20 range. The upside is capped by 55DMA, with 4-hour / daily studies being negatively aligned that sees increased downside risk for extension of pullback from 1361, 28/10 peak. Violation of pivotal 1305/00 support zone to signal an end of consolidative phase and trigger bearish extension towards 1290, next support. Conversely, clear break above initial 1320 barrier and 1330 zone, previous support / daily cloud ****, is required to confirm higher **** at 1305 and open further upside.

Res: 1322; 1327; 1335; 1345

Sup: 1314; 1305; 1300; 1293

The Euro ended the second consecutive week in red, as reversal from fresh high at 1.3831 retraced 50% of entire 1.2754/1.3831 rally, on a dip to 1.3294. The pair was additionally pressured by Fed’s decision that was followed by ECB’s rate cut and kept the negative sentiment in play. The price consolidates above fresh low at 1.3294, following Thursday/Friday’s bumpy ride, where the price oscillated between 1.3294 and 1.3450. Fresh weakness, seen last Friday, stayed above weekly low, with price consolidating above 1.33 handle. Near-term technicals remain bearish and see risk of further downside, as daily indicators slid into negative territory. However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out, with current range top at 1.3450, also previous consolidation floor of 04/05 / 11, expected to limit the upside. Only break above 1.3550, 06/11 lower top and near 50% of 1.3831/1.3294, would neutralize bears. On the downside, break below 1.3294 would open 1.3215, 200DMA and 1.3103, 06/09 higher low in extension.

Res: 1.3387; 1.3410; 1.3448; 1.3500

Sup: 1.3343; 1.3316; 1.3293; 1.3275

Near-term price action remains under pressure, as last week’s recovery rally from 1.59 ****, stalled at 1.6120, also 61.8% retracement of 1.6254/1.5901, with subsequent weakness, following the second unsuccessful attempt higher. The price hovers around 1.6000 zone, where weekly close occurred and daily cloud top offers temporary support, with 4-hour indicators breaking into negative territory and seeing risk of fresh attempt towards very strong 1.5900 ****. Negative hourly studies support the notion. On the larger picture, 5-week ranges remains intact and only break of either side would define fresh direction. Negatively aligned daily technicals keep the downside pressured, as loss of 1.59 **** will also confirm double-top formation.

Res: 1.6029; 1.6057; 1.6100; 1.6116

Sup: 1.6000; 1.5955; 1.5940; 1.5900

The price returned to strength and regained 99.00, following last week’s sharp fall from 99.39 to 97.61. Near-term technicals are positive, however, consolidation under 99.21 peak and session high, is seen on overbought hourly conditions. Immediate support at 98.90, 20DMA, holds for now, with further easing to be contained above 98.50, 20/55DMA, to keep the structure intact. Break above 99.39 is required to resume larger bulls off 96.93 and expose 99.65 and psychological 100.00 barrier. Conversely, loss of 98.50 handle, also 50% of 99.39/97.91 fall, would weaken near-term structure and risk fresh weakness towards higher platform at 98 zone.

Res: 99.21; 99.39; 99.65; 100.00

Sup: 98.90; 98.70; 98.50; 98.00

The pair remains under pressure, as fresh extension of near-term downmove from 0.9541, 06/11 high, broke below 0.9420/00 support zone. The price dipped to 0.9351 so far, aiming towards 0.9323, 50% retracement of 0.8891/0.9755 rally and 0.9300, psychological support. Negative near-term studies support the notion, however, overextended conditions suggest that fresh weakness would be preceded by consolidative/corrective phase. Previous supports at 0.9400, reinforced by 20DMA and 0.9420, also 55DMA, act as initial barriers, with lower platform at 0.9470, expected to limit the upside and keep bearish structure intact.

Res: 0.9400; 0.9420; 0.9470; 0.9508

Sup: 0.9388; 0.9350; 0.9323; 0.9300