Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro maintains positive near-term tone, as bounce off 1.2600 zone approaches previous high at 1.2790, in attempt to create higher low. Break above strong 1.2700/20 barriers and subsequent acceleration, retraced over 76.4% of 1.2790/1.2603 downleg, seeing scope for final push through 1.2790/1.2800 breakpoints, previous high / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.2993/1.2499 descend, break of which to resume recovery rally off 1.2499, 03 Oct low. Yesterday’s positive close, with break and close above daily 20SMA, along with positive near-term studies, supports the notion. Corrective actions under initial 1.27 support, should be contained above 1.2663 higher low and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement, to keep bulls in play.

Res: 1.2726; 1.2766; 1.2790; 1.2800

Sup: 1.2685; 1.2663; 1.2650; 1.2632

Cable maintains overall negative tone, with near-term bears returning to play, after bounce off 1.6006 higher low of 10 Oct, was capped by descending daily 20SMA at 1.6125. Consolidative action, signaled by yesterday’s Doji, is completed and fresh weakness through 1.60 support zone, is looking for completion 1.5950/1.6225 upleg. Eventual break below 1.5950 handle to open way for fresh retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 ascend.

Res: 1.6000; 1.6049; 1.6078; 1.6110

Sup: 1.5950; 1.5900; 1.5853; 1.5800

The pair remains under pressure and eventually broke below strong 107.00/106.80 support zone, psychological support / 16 Sep low. Yesterday’s close in red, as well as bearish near-term studies, signal further weakness and extension of pullback from 110.07, peak of 01 Oct. Extension below 107.00/106.80 support zone, eyes immediate support at 106.64/55, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of 101.07/110.07 ascend / Fibonacci 100% expansion of the third wave which commenced from 108.73, 08 Oct lower top. Break here to open next significant level at 105.57, 50% retracement / daily 55SMA. Corrective actions should be capped under 108.00/15 barrier, to keep bears intact.

Res: 107.29; 107.56; 108.15; 108.31

Sup: 106.74; 106.64; 106.55; 106.00

The pair’s bounce off 0.8650 low, regained 0.88 handle and 61.8% retracement of 0.8896/ 0.8650 downleg. This averts immediate risk of renewed attack at key 0.8641 low, in favor of prolonged consolidation, as the price action moves within 0.8641/0.8896 range. Hourly studies improved, which supports further recovery action, however, 4-hour studies are neutral, while daily tone is bearish. Further sideways trading is expected to precede fresh leg lower, with sustained break below 0.8641, to open 0.8543, 50% retracement of 0.6007/1.1079 ascend. Only sustained break above 0.89 barrier, would neutralize bears and mark double-bottom formation, for stronger correction of the downleg from 0.9400, 05 Sep lower top.

Res: 0.8812; 0.8832; 0.8896; 0.8931

Sup: 0.8734; 0.8700; 0.8650; 0.8641

The Euro remains in near-term sideways mode, trading within 1.2700/1.2840 consolidative range, after last week’s strong acceleration higher spiked at 1.2884. Friday’s attempts at range tops were unsuccessful, with subsequent quick pullback to the range’s lower zone, weakening hourly structure. On the other side, 4-hour studies maintain positive tone, with price action being supported by 55SMA for now. Larger picture studies are also mixed, as last Friday’s close in red, keeps the pair under pressure, while the second consecutive positive weekly close, although with limited upside power, according to long upper wicks of the candles, suggests lacks of momentum for final push higher. This would signal extended consolidative phase, with break of either side, required to establish fresh direction. Immediate supports lay at 1.2727/22, 4-hour 55SMA/Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.2622/1.2884 and 1.2700, range floor and 16 Oct spike low, loss of which to weaken near-term structure for further correction of 1.2499/1.2884 ascend. Conversely, fresh strength above range top, to signal resumption of recovery rally from 1.2499, 03 Oct low, for attempt at pivotal 1.29/1.30 barriers.

Res: 1.2778; 1.2800; 1.2843; 1.2884

Sup: 1.2722; 1.2700; 1.2646; 1.2622

Cable consolidates after hitting pivotal 1.6125 barrier, lower top of 13 Oct, clear break of which is required to complete the first step of recovery action from 1.5875 low and open the breakpoint at 1.6225, 09 Oct lower top. Positive tone prevails on lower timeframes studies and supports further recovery action. On the other side, indecision is signaled on larger picture, as both daily and weekly closes, were in Doji candle, as daily action remains capped by descending 20SMA, while weekly 100SMA so far held upside attempts. Extended consolidative phase is seen likely in the near-term and unless the price rallies to key 1.6225 barrier, risk of ending near-term corrective phase, will remain in play. Initial supports lay at 1.6081 and 1.6057, while violation of pivotal higher low at 1.6030, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5875/1.6125 upleg, would sideline near-term bulls.

Res: 1.6111; 1.6125; 1.6142; 1.6200

Sup: 1.6081; 1.6057; 1.6030; 1.6000

The pair remains steady in near-term trading, as acceleration of corrective rally off 105.18, 15 Oct low, stabilizes above 107 handle, following, weekly gap-higher opening. Completion of 107.50/105.18 phase, lower top of 15 Oct / 50% of 109.89/105.18 descend / daily 20SMA and sustained break higher, which also requires clearing daily Kijun-sen line at 107.63, is required to sideline bears and signal further recovery. Studies of 4-hour and daily chart are attempting at their midlines, with break higher to confirm bullish resumption. Alternatively, extension and close below 107 handle would be initial signal of lower top formation and fresh weakness.

Res: 107.38; 107.50; 107.63; 108.00

Sup: 107.00; 106.77; 106.56; 106.33

The pair remains in near-term sideways mode, as price action continues to move within narrowed 0.8734/0.8810 price span, part of larger 0.8641/0.8896 consolidative range. Overall bearish tone remains in play and sees fresh extension of larger downtrend as preferred scenario, as the price action holds below descending daily 20SMA for now. Top of corrective range at 0.89, along with 38.2% of 0.9400/0.8641, marks strong barrier and breakpoint and only sustained break here would have more significant impact on short-term bears. Last Friday’s Doji, however, would signal prolonged consolidation, before the price establishes in fresh direction.

Res: 0.8786; 0.8810; 0.8836; 0.8858

Sup: 0.8746; 0.8731; 0.8700; 0.8684

The Euro probes above 1.28 barrier, on a fresh strength, off yesterday’s low at 1.2730. Near-term price action continues to trade in choppy consolidation, entrenched within 1.2700/1.2840 range. Positively aligned near-term studies and yesterday’s positive close keep fresh upside attempts towards the range tops in play, as price action is supported by rising 100SMA and daily Kijun-sen line. However, overall picture remains negative and unless the price extends above range ceiling and 1.29 barrier, seen as initial barriers and trigger for attempts towards 1.30 breakpoint, expect prolonged consolidation, with downside at risk, in the near-term.

Res: 1.2843; 1.2884; 1.2900; 1.2930

Sup: 1.2787; 1.2750; 1.2730; 1.2700

Cable resumed recovery rally after consolidation below 1.6125 and heads towards psychological 1.62 barrier, also daily Kijun-sen line and key near-term resistance at 1.6225, 09 Oct lower top. Near-term studies are bullish and support further upside, with yesterday’s positive close and break above daily 20SMA, improving daily studies, which are negative and require clearance of 1.6225 breakpoint for improvement. Corrective actions should be ideally contained at 1.6065 higher ****, 38.2% retracement of rally from 1.5873, reinforced by 20/55SMA’s bull cross.

Res: 1.6200; 1.6225; 1.6250; 1.6285

Sup: 1.6150; 1.6125; 1.6100; 1.6078

The pair came under pressure after failing to regain pivotal 107.50 barrier and subsequent two-legged pullback so far reached 106.24, over 50% retracement of 105.18/107.38 upleg. Weakened near-term studies see risk of further easing, as daily bears are coming back to play and Evening Star pattern is forming on a daily chart. Completion of the pattern, which requires close at/ below 106, psychological support, reinforced by ascending daily 55SMA, also to confirm lower top formation and risk return to key near-term support at 105.18. Alternative scenario requires reversal above 106 handle and regain of 107.38/50 breakpoints, to neutralize downside risk.

Res: 106.76; 107.00; 107.38; 107.50

Sup: 106.24; 106.11; 106.00; 105.50

Near-term price action broke above initial barrier and narrowed range tops at psychological 0.80 resistance, however, price continues to trade within larger 0.8641/0.8900 range, with 4-hour chart showing no significant changes, compared to the previous sessions. Near-term studies are positively aligned, which keeps the upside targets in near-term focus. The notion is supported by positive daily close and break above 20SMA. On the other side, negative larger picture’s studies see risk of fresh push lower, once short-term consolidative phase is completed. Only sustained break above 0.89 barrier would sideline bears and signal stronger corrective action.

Res: 0.8826; 0.8836; 0.8858; 0.8900

Sup: 0.8800; 0.8756; 0.8731; 0.8700

The Euro accelerates below 1.27 support and near-term range’s lower boundary, which was attacked on a pullback, following repeated rejection at 1.2840 range tops. Yesterday’s bearish Outside Day signaled fresh weakness, which attempts below 1.27 breakpoint area, reinforced by daily 20SMA. Negatively aligned near-term studies see increased downside risk, with clear break below 1.27 zone, which also marks 50% of entire 1.2499/1.2884 corrective rally, expected to trigger further retracement. Fresh bears will open targets1.2646, Fibonacci 61.8%, ahead of troughs at 1.2622 and 1.2603. Previous low and hourly 20SMA at 1.2730, caps for now, with further recovery attempts expected to be limited under 1.2782 lower top and hourly 20/55SMA’s bear-cross. However, while 1.27 zone remains intact, prolonged sideways trade would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 1.2700; 1.2735; 1.2758; 1.2782

Sup: 1.2646; 1.2622; 1.2600; 1.2582

Cable pulls back after failure to regain psychological 1.62 barrier, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, which guards 1.6225 breakpoint and high of 09 Oct. Yesterday’s close in red and failure to break above descending daily 20SMA, could be seen as initial signals of near-term weakness, as lower timeframes studies are losing traction and larger picture remains bearish. Downside extension below psychological 1.61 support and loss of 1.6064, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5873/1.6182, also 4-hour 20/55SMA’s bull-cross, is required to confirm near-term negative stance, with break and close below 1.60 handle, to bring near-term bears fully in play. Conversely, fresh strength above 1.6200/25, to neutralize downside threats and open way for stronger correction.

Res: 1.6100; 1.6130; 1.6150; 1.6182

Sup: 1.6057; 1.6028; 1.6000; 1.5990

The pair consolidates around 107 handle, after failing to regain pivotal 107.50 barrier and subsequent two-legged pullback found footstep 106.24. Near-term studies are neutral, while daily bears are coming back to play. Extension and close below 106, psychological support, reinforced by ascending daily 55SMA is required to signal lower top formation and risk further weakness towards key near-term support at 105.18. Alternatively, sustained break above initial 107 barrier and clearance of 107.38/50 breakpoints, to neutralize downside risk.

Res: 107.10; 107.38; 107.50; 108.00

Sup: 106.60; 106.24; 106.11; 106.00

Near-term price action remains in a range trading and returns to the range’s mid-point zone, following unsuccessful attempt above psychological 0.88 barrier. Near-term studies remain neutral and require break of either range boundary, for fresh direction, with yesterday’s Doji confirming scenario. However, overall bearish structure, favors resumption of larger downtrend from 0.9400 lower top, on completion of short-term consolidative phase. Only clear break above 0.89 breakpoint and range top would put larger bears on hold.

Res: 0.8800; 0.8836; 0.8858; 0.8900

Sup: 0.8743; 0.8731; 0.8700; 0.8684

The Euro ticked higher and probed above 1.27 barrier on extended consolidative phase off 1.2612, 23 Oct low. Last Friday positive close gives positive signal, however, failure to close above daily 20SMA, keeps the downside at risk. Extension above 1.27 barrier, so far tested 38.2% of 1.2884/1.2612 descend at 1.2716, with extension and close above 1.2750 zone, 50% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen line and broken bull-trendline off 1.2499 low, required to confirm recovery and higher **** formation at 1.26 zone. However, weak daily and 4-hour studies, see limited upside action for now, with upside rejection to risk lower top formation and possible return to strong 1.26 support area, below which, retest of key near-term support at 1.2499, would be expected.

Res: 1.2716; 1.2750; 1.2790; 1.2839

Sup: 1.2675; 1.2658; 1.2633; 1.2612

Cable bounced off important 1.60 support zone, where recent pullback was contained by daily Tenkan-sen line at Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.5873/1.6182 ascend. Fresh strength, which signals reversal on last Friday’s positive close, attempts above daily 20 SMA at 1.6093 and through pivotal 1.6100/28 resistance zone, psychological barrier / double-Fibonacci resistance of 38.2% of 1.6522/1.5873 and 61.8% of 1.6182/1.5992 / lower top of 22 Oct. Break and close above here to confirm bulls which are developing on 4-hour chart and open way towards breakpoints at 1.6182/1.6225, 21/09 Oct peaks. Failure to clear 1.61 barrier would signal extended consolidation, while loss of 1.60 handle will be bearish.

Res: 1.6108; 1.6120; 1.6150; 1.6182

Sup: 1.6070; 1.6037; 1.6016; 1.5992

The pair remains supported in the near-term and trades in consolidative phase under fresh high at 108.34, where acceleration of the upleg from 106.23 was so far capped. Bulls developing on daily chart require sustained break above 108 barrier, which is now paused by Friday’s close in red. Initial supports at 107.73/63, daily 20SMA / daily Kijun-sen line, should be ideally keeping the downside protected for eventual push towards 110 breakpoint zone. However, caution is required while the price stays around 108 handle, as easing below initial supports and probe below 107.40/30, previous high / 50% retracement of 106.23/108.34 upleg, would weaken near-term structure and sideline bulls.

Res: 108.34; 108.73; 109.00; 109.22

Sup: 107.76; 107.63; 107.38; 107.29

Near-term picture structure turned positive, as the pair attempted again above 0.88 barrier, with 0.8820 zone so far capping. However, overall near-term price action continues to move in a range trading. Improved near-term studies require trigger for attack at the upper boundary of the range and establish fresh direction on a break higher. On the other side, overall negative structure, favors resumption of larger downtrend from 0.9400 lower top, on completion of short-term consolidative phase for stronger correction of larger 0.9400/0.8641 descend.

Res: 0.8820; 0.8831; 0.8858; 0.8900

Sup: 0.8782; 0.8766; 0.8747; 0.8717