Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The remains in near-term consolidative mode, as 1.2934 proved to be solid support after being retested and holding for now, with brief attempt above 1.3000 barrier, signaling possible corrective action. Improved hourly studies support the notion, however, sustained break above 1.3000 and regain of minimum 1.3050/60 is required to confirm **** and trigger fresh recovery. Otherwise, further weakness would be likely scenario, as 4h indicators hold in the negative territory and price action being capped by descending 20 day EMA.

Cable bounces off yesterday’s fresh low at 1.5276, following bearish extension below psychological 1.5300 support. Prevailing negative tone on lower timeframes studies, keeps the downside focused, with corrective rallies seen limited, while below 1.5383/1.5410 barriers. Overall negative tone and break below main bull-trendline, sees increased risk of fresh weakness towards pivotal 1.5200 support zone, 50% of 1.4830/1.5603 / April’s higher platform.

Near-term focus is starting to shift towards the downside and open way for corrective pullback, as the pair holds below 102.00 barrier. Loss of initial support at 101.50, increases downside risk, as hourly studies slide into negative territory and yesterday’s Doji candle signaling near-term indecision. However, confirmation would require break below 101.00 handle to open Fibonacci supports at 100.80/38. Strong support and breakpoint at 100.00 is expected to hold dips, as larger picture bulls remain fully in play, with current reversal seen as corrective and preceding fresh rally.

The pair consolidates recent losses that bottomed at 0.9939, after the parity level has been lost and now acting as initial resistance, reinforced by hourly 55 day EMA. Possible stronger correction cannot be ruled out, as 4h conditions are oversold and hourly indicators are heading north. However, signal of basing attempt would require regain of initial 1.0030/45 barriers, while regain of 1.0100, 50% of 1.0253/0.9939 fall, would confirm recovery. Overall picture remains bearish, as the pair commenced fresh bear-phase, following break below multi-month range floor.

The Euro remains under pressure after yesterday’s upside rejection at 1.3025, where a double-top was left, ahead of fresh weakness. The price violated psychological 1.2900 support, on today’s acceleration lower that suggests further descend, as 50% of 1.2744/1.3241 upleg has been broken and near-term studies hold negative tone. Loss of 1.2900 handle to expose next targets at 1.2861, Fib 76.4% and 1.2800, round figure support. However, bears may be interrupted by corrective action on oversold near-term studies, with previous strong supports at 1.2934/53, now offering initial resistance, ahead of 1.3000, below which rallies should be ideally contained. Only lift above 1.3025 would signal a pause in near-term downtrend and allow for stronger counce.

Near-term bears are fully in play, as the price extended descend from 1.5590 double-top, to crack significant support zone and breakpoint at 1.5217/1.5195, 50% of 1.4830/1.5603 / April’s higher platform. The support proves to be strong, as the price bounced, after hitting fresh low at 1.5190. Dominating negative tone on near-term studies does not see much of upside potential for now, with any stronger rally, expected to hold below 1.5300 barrier. Bearish continuation below 1.5190 to confirm top at 1.56 zone and confirm end of 1.4830/1.5603 corrective phase, with 1.5125/00, seen as next downside targets.

The pair rallies again, after corrective pullback from 102.14 found footstep at 101.25. Break above initial 102.00/14 barriers, signals bullish resumption of fresh upleg from 98.63 that opens way towards next target at 103.00. Positive near-term studies remain supportive, with initial supports standing at 102.14/00, previous barriers and 101.25, keeping the downside protected.

The pair remains in a steep downtrend that accelerated after losing 1.0114, multi-month range floor. Break below parity level, as psychological support and the next one at 0.9900, keeps the way open towards 0.9579, May 2012 low, with interim supports at 0.9825/00 and 0.9660. However, corrective action may preced fresh weakness, but rallies are for now seen limited, with initial barriers at 0.9914/40 and parity level expected to cap.

The single currency remains under pressure, as last Friday’s fall dipped briefly below 1.2800 handle. Subsequent bounce still stays capped at initial 1.2850 barrier, previous lower **** and 55 day EMA. With hourly studies heading higher and 4h studies being overextended, further recovery is possible, however, clearance of 1.2900 zone, 50% of 1.3027/1.2795 fall, is seen as minimum requirement to signal near-term basing attempt and allow for stronger recovery, where next barriers at 1.2950 zone will come in focus. Overall negative tone doesn’t see much of upside prospect in the near-term, as daily studies turned bearish and while price holds below 1.2950/1.3000, previous range floor / 200 day MA.

Cable consolidates recent losses that dipped to 1.5157 so far, with 1.5200 limiting the upside for now. Fresh bear-leg that commenced on upside rejection at 1.5321, could extend to 1.5125, Fib 61.8% of 1.4830/1.5603 upleg and 1.5100, round figure support, initial targets, as pivotal 1.5200 support has been lost and near-term top at 1.5600 zone confirmed. Negative near-term studies keep the downside favored, with limited corrective actions expected to stay under 1.5300 barrier.

Overall bullish structure remains intact for now, despite overnight’s gap-lower opening and spike low near 102.00 support. Bounce back towards 103.00 barrier, kept positive near-term structure, however, failure to fill the gap, would keep the downside at risk, with good support laying at 102.50, Fib 38.2% of 101.25/103.28 upleg / 55 day EMA, loss of which to confirm further corrective action. Conversely, break above 103.00 barrier, would focus last Friday’s fresh high at 103.28 and signal resumption of broader uptrend.

The Aussie starts the week with slight positive tone and bounces off last Friday’s fresh low at 0.9709. recovery was so far limited under the next barrier at 0.9800, reinforced by descending 55day EMA that keeps upside prospects under question mark. Overall bearish tone still keeps the downside in focus, with key target at 0.9579, May 2012 low, however, bears may be interrupted by corrective action, as hourly indicators are heading north and 4h / daily studies are oversold. Such scenario requires break above initial 0.9800 barrier and regain of the next one at 0.9900, to confirm near-term recovery under way and avert immediate downside risk.

The Euro bounced off yesterday’s fresh low at 1.2795 and regained psychological 1.2900 barrier, sidelining immediate downside risk. This would open way for stronger corrective action, as near-term structure turned positive, with clearance of 1.2911, Fib 50% of 1.3027/1.2795 descend, seen as confirmation. Fresh extension higher would face 1.2930/50 as initial barriers, with key near-term resistance and breakpoint, standing at 1.3000/25 zone. As the price action stabilized within 1.2900/1.2860 range, the latter acts as initial support, along with 1.2850, 50% of 1.2795/1.2903 upleg, where corrective dips should be ideally contained.

Recovery rally from 1.5157, last Friday’s low, accelerated after breaking above 1.5200 barrier and extended to 1.5280 so far, near Fib 76.4% of 1.5321/1.5157 fall. Hourly studies are positive, however, the freshly established bulls will remain fragile, as long as 1.5300, 55 day EMA and key near-term barrier at 1.5321, 16 May high / Fib 38.2% of 1.5586/1.5157, stay intact. Break here, however, to confirm near-term **** and allow for extension of recovery phase that would eye next targets at 1.5372, 50% retracement and 1.5400, psychological barrier. To keep bulls in play, corrective dips should be contained at 1.5200 support zone.

The pair trades in a near-term corrective mode, as yesterday’s weakness off fresh high at 103.29, extended to important 102.00 zone, where temporary support has been found. Quick recovery shows regain of momentum, as hourly indicators are heading higher, however, break above 102.75/103.00, previous high / round figure resistance, is required to signal an end of corrective phase and shift focus higher. Current movements could be described as consolidative, while 102.00 and 101.80, 4h range floor, hold the downside, as daily chart bulls remain firmly in play.

The pair trades in a near-term recovery mode, as fresh strength that emerged from 0.9709 low, regained psychological 0.9800 barrier and so far retraced over 61.8% of 0.9912/0.9709 downleg. Hourly studies are positive and favor further upside, with regain of important 0.9920 resistance zone, 15 May high / Fib 38.2% of 1.0253/0.9709 / 55 day EMA, required to confirm near-term **** and allow for stronger correction. From the other side, 4h indicators, emerging out of oversold zone and overextended daily conditions, are seen supportive for further recovery. Initial support lays at 0.9750 and should holds dips, to keep fresh bulls afloat.

The Euro maintains positive near-term tone and holds above 1.2900 support, following overnight’s extension to 1.2937, where rally was capped by 55 day EMA. The level lays just ahead of 1.2950, previous range floor and Fib 38.2% of 1.3193/1.2795 descend, break of which to confirm near-term **** and open more significant barriers at 1.3000, 50% retracement and 1.3027, 14 May high. Corrective actions should be ideally contained at 1.2880/70 zone, Fib 38.2% / 50% of the near-term ascend from 1.2795 and hourly 55 day EMA, to keep bullish structure intact.

Cable slumped to the fresh lows near 1.5100 yesterday, after upside rejection at 1.5280, where lower top was left. Bears are back in play, as the pair ended corrective action and near-term focus lays at psychological 1.5100 support, blow which, fresh resumption of the pullback from 1.5600 area, would look for test of 1.5020/00 zone. Quick corrective rally stays so far capped under important 1.5200 resistance that keeps the downside pressured, with near-term indicators holding in the negative territory.

The pair holds neutral near-term tone and moves in a directionless mode, with 102.24/87 marking near-term range limits. As the pullback from fresh high at 103.29, has been contained at 102.00, the latter offers solid support for fresh attempt higher. Studies of 4h chart remain positive, while overall bullish tone keeps the upside favored. Clearance of 103.29 to resume the broader uptrend that could travel up to 105.00 barrier. Only loss of 102.00 and 101.80, near-term range floor, would delay and allow for stronger correction.

Aussie dollar has regained some ground after finding temporary support at 0.9709, with subsequent rally being limited at 0.9840 for now. Repeated failures at 0.9840, keep the upside attempts limited, with near-term price action moving in a sideways mode, within 0.9750/0.9840 range. Hourly studies are neutral, while negative tone prevails on 4h chart that sees the current corrective action limited. Potential break above 0.9840, would look for test of strong 0.9900 zone, to signal further recovery, while more likely scenario, sees loss of 0.9750 platform and return to initial support at 0.9700.

The Euro maintains positive near-term tone while holding above 1.2900 higher platform, where 55 day EMA keeps the downside protected in the near-term. With 4h indicators being in the positive territory, scope exists for possible fresh attempt at strong barrier and near-term tops at 1.3000 zone, break of which to resume near-term recovery off 1.2795, 17 May low. From the other side, hourly studies are losing traction, with negative daily structure, being pressured by 20/200 MA death cross, downside remains at risk. Break below 1.2900 to confirm and expose lower boundaries of near-term 1.2800/1.3000 range.

Near-term picture remains positive, as the pair trades in a corrective mode off 1.5012, 23 May low, with price consolidating under 1.5145, 50% retracement of 1.5279/1.5012 fall. Price action is underpinned by hourly 20/55 day EMA’s bullish crossover at 1.5100, however, break above congestion at 1.5145, is required resume recovery and avert the downside risk, as 4h indicators still hold below their midlines and larger picture shows bears fully in play. Break below 1.5100 handle would re-expose psychological 1.5000 support. On the upside, key resistances lay at 1.5279 and 1.5321, regain of which is required to shift short-term focus higher.

The pair came under increased pressure on Friday, when recovery rally failed at 102.57 and subsequent weakness slid below 101.00 handle. The price posted fresh low at 100.65, with negative near-term studies, keeping the downside favored and eyeing psychological 100.00 support. Bearish 20/55 day EMA’s crossover at 101.80, maintains pressure, while only break above Friday’s high at 102.57, would provide near-term relief.

The pair extended weakness from last Thursday’s recovery failure at 0.9777 and approached psychological 0.9600 support that has already been dented on last week’s break to 0.9592. Negative tone dominates on near-term studies and keeps downside focused, as a part of broader downtrend, interrupted by minor correction so far. Main short-term target lays at 0.9579, May 2012 low, with further bearish extension not ruled out, as the pair’s price action was in red for past three weeks. Corrective rallies would face initial resistances at 0.9750/77, while only break above 0.9840, would ease bear pressure and open way for stronger correction.