Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

The Euro continues to trade in near-term directionless mode, around 1.27 handle, with mixed picture on lower timeframes. Hourly studies have improved, while 4-hour technicals are still weak, lacking strength for eventual push through the first breakpoint at 1.2750, 50% retracement of 1.2839/1.2612 and broken bull-trendline off 1.2499 low, clearance of which to confirm near-term **** at 1.26 zone and accelerate reversal from 1.2612 low. On the larger picture, the pair is losing initial bullish momentum, despite yesterday’s positive close, as daily structure remains negative. Corrective rally off 1.2499, 03 Oct fresh low, shows that pivotal support, low of Nov 2012 at 1.2660 hasn’t been cleared yet, with bearish scenario requiring break and weekly close below here, for repeated attempt through 1.2499 and resumption of larger downtrend. Conversely, regain of 1.28 handle and extension above 1.2884, 15 Oct high, to confirm major reversal, which will allow for stronger retracement of 1.3992/1.2499 descend.

Res: 1.2721; 1.2750; 1.2790; 1.2839

Sup: 1.2663; 1.2633; 1.2612; 1.2603

Cable attempts to stabilize above 1.61, on extension of corrective rally from 1.5873 low and higher low at 1.60 zone. Further upside is favored, as reversal pattern was formed on a daily chart, where the price also cleared 20SMA. Positive near-term studies support the notion. Clearance of initial barrier at 1.6146, yesterday’s high, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, to open way towards key barriers at 1.6182/1.6225, 21/09 Oct peaks. Ascending daily Tenkan-sen line, currently at 1.6061, underpins the action.

Res: 1.6108; 1.6120; 1.6150; 1.6182

Sup: 1.6100; 1.6085; 1.6061; 1.6016

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase under fresh high at 108.34, where acceleration of the upleg from 106.23 was so far capped, with the downside attempts being for now contained by daily Kijun-sen line at 107.60. Bulls which started to develop on a daily chart, are fading, following two consecutive daily closes in red. Potential fresh upside action requires sustained break above 108.00/34 barriers, to confirm resumption of recovery rally from 105.18. Otherwise, downside risk will remain in play, with acceleration on a break below pivotal 107.60 support, to signal higher low formation and fresh weakness towards psychological 107 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 106.23/108.34 upleg.

Res: 108.00; 108.34; 108.73; 109.00

Sup: 107.60; 107.29; 107.00; 106.77

Near-term structure remains positive, as the pair attempts for sustained break above 0.88 barrier, after clearing previous congestion tops at 0.8820. This may open way for attack at the upper boundary of short-term range, as overall near-term price action remains entrenched within 0.8641/0.89 range. Improved near-term studies require close above 0.88, to open way towards pivotal 0.89 barrier and establish fresh direction on a break higher. On the other side, daily structure is still weak, with yesterday’s Doji, seeing risk of prolonged sideways trade, in case of early upside rejection.



Res: 0.8838; 0.8858; 0.8900; 0.8950

Sup: 0.8808; 0.8787; 0.8763; 0.8750