Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

The Euro remains firm ahead of today’s FOMC release, in a renewed attempt above 1.3400 barrier. With brief consolidation off yesterday’s high at 1.3414 being contained by 20 day EMA at 1.3380 zone, the upside remains in near-term focus, as positive studies are supportive. Immediate target lies at 1.3433, 20 Feb high, ahead of more significant double-Fibonacci resistance at 1.3480 zone, 76.4% retracement of 1.3710/1.2744 / 138.2% expansion of the upleg from 1.2795. Corrective dips should be ideally contained at 1.3380/50 zone, to keep the structure intact.

Near-term structure weakened as the price broke below initial support at 1.5615, extending corrective pullback off 1.5751 high to 1.5564. Subsequent bounce to 1.5669, where 55 day EMA limited recovery, lacks momentum for extension towards 1.5700 zone, as hourly indicators are still in the negative territory. Increased risk of lower top would come on a slide below 1.5615, while regain of 1.5700 would bring bulls back in play. Caution is required as daily studies are starting to point lower and price returned below 200 day MA, with previous sessions double-Doji candles, suggesting possible hesitation of larger uptrend from 1.5000 ****. Break below 1.5564/00 supports is required to confirm reversal, otherwise, clearance of 1.5700/51 would signal resumption of an uptrend.

The near-term structure improved, as the price eventually broke above 95.00, initial resistance, however, gains failed to regain next barrier at 95.79. Subsequent reversal risks violation of 95.00, now reverted to support, loss of which to signal and end of near-term corrective phase and confirm double-op formation. With 4h studies still in the negative territory, such scenario is seen likely, unless price breaks above 95.79 and 96.0, 55 day EMA that would give an initial signal of basing attempt.

The pair remains under pressure, as recovery rejection under 0.9672 barrier and fresh slide to 0.9430 zone, weakens the near-term structure. Increased risk exists of double-top formation and fresh weakness that would confirm an end corrective phase and re-expose fresh low at 0.9324. Bearish 20/55 day EMA’s crossover at 0.9550, offers solid resistance and break here would avert immediate downside risk. However, only lift above 0.9672 would provide relief and resume near-term corrective rally.