Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

0700 , analysis , brokers , gmt , majors , short , technical , term , windsor

The Euro continues to trade in near-term directionless mode, around 1.27 handle, with mixed picture on lower timeframes. Hourly studies have improved, while 4-hour technicals are still weak, lacking strength for eventual push through the first breakpoint at 1.2750, 50% retracement of 1.2839/1.2612 and broken bull-trendline off 1.2499 low, clearance of which to confirm near-term **** at 1.26 zone and accelerate reversal from 1.2612 low. On the larger picture, the pair is losing initial bullish momentum, despite yesterday’s positive close, as daily structure remains negative. Corrective rally off 1.2499, 03 Oct fresh low, shows that pivotal support, low of Nov 2012 at 1.2660 hasn’t been cleared yet, with bearish scenario requiring break and weekly close below here, for repeated attempt through 1.2499 and resumption of larger downtrend. Conversely, regain of 1.28 handle and extension above 1.2884, 15 Oct high, to confirm major reversal, which will allow for stronger retracement of 1.3992/1.2499 descend.

Res: 1.2721; 1.2750; 1.2790; 1.2839

Sup: 1.2663; 1.2633; 1.2612; 1.2603

Cable attempts to stabilize above 1.61, on extension of corrective rally from 1.5873 low and higher low at 1.60 zone. Further upside is favored, as reversal pattern was formed on a daily chart, where the price also cleared 20SMA. Positive near-term studies support the notion. Clearance of initial barrier at 1.6146, yesterday’s high, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line, to open way towards key barriers at 1.6182/1.6225, 21/09 Oct peaks. Ascending daily Tenkan-sen line, currently at 1.6061, underpins the action.

Res: 1.6108; 1.6120; 1.6150; 1.6182

Sup: 1.6100; 1.6085; 1.6061; 1.6016

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase under fresh high at 108.34, where acceleration of the upleg from 106.23 was so far capped, with the downside attempts being for now contained by daily Kijun-sen line at 107.60. Bulls which started to develop on a daily chart, are fading, following two consecutive daily closes in red. Potential fresh upside action requires sustained break above 108.00/34 barriers, to confirm resumption of recovery rally from 105.18. Otherwise, downside risk will remain in play, with acceleration on a break below pivotal 107.60 support, to signal higher low formation and fresh weakness towards psychological 107 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 106.23/108.34 upleg.

Res: 108.00; 108.34; 108.73; 109.00

Sup: 107.60; 107.29; 107.00; 106.77

Near-term structure remains positive, as the pair attempts for sustained break above 0.88 barrier, after clearing previous congestion tops at 0.8820. This may open way for attack at the upper boundary of short-term range, as overall near-term price action remains entrenched within 0.8641/0.89 range. Improved near-term studies require close above 0.88, to open way towards pivotal 0.89 barrier and establish fresh direction on a break higher. On the other side, daily structure is still weak, with yesterday’s Doji, seeing risk of prolonged sideways trade, in case of early upside rejection.



Res: 0.8838; 0.8858; 0.8900; 0.8950

Sup: 0.8808; 0.8787; 0.8763; 0.8750

The Euro maintains near-term positive sentiment off 1.2612 low, posted on 23 Oct. Yesterday’s acceleration higher, cracked initial barrier at 1.2750, but so far holds below broken bull-trendline from 1.2499 low, currently at 1.2780. Positive near-term studies favor further upside, as the pair stabilizes above psychological 1.27 support and attempts to build higher **** at 1.2725 zone. Yesterday’s positive close above daily 20 SMA, supports the notion, as daily technicals are gaining bullish momentum and indicators are heading north. With positive technicals, fundamentals are expected to be main driver of the pair, as today’s Fed announcement is in focus. Key levels and break points remain unchanged, with sustained break above 1.2800/84, required to confirm extended correction off 1.2499, while weekly close below pivotal 1.2660, Nov 2012 low and loss of 1.2499, 03 Oct low, is required to signal resumption of larger downtrend.

Res: 1.2763; 1.2780; 1.2800; 1.2839

Sup: 1.2725; 1.2700; 1.2663; 1.2633

Cable stabilizes above 1.61 handle, after yesterday’s acceleration higher peaked ticks away from pivotal 1.6182, high of 21 Oct and subsequent pullback found support at 1.6126, where near-term higher **** is under formation. Bullish tone prevails on lower timeframes studies, which along with yesterday’s positive close and daily indicators heading higher, supports eventual attempt through 1.6182/1.6225 break points, to confirm resumption of short-term recovery rally from 1.5873, low of 15 Oct. Break higher to also complete inverted H&S pattern on daily chart, which is expected to trigger fresh bullish acceleration. Lows at 1.6126 offer initial support, along with psychological 1.61 support, with 1.6086/81, higher low of 28 Oct / 50% retracement of 1.5992/1.6180 upleg / daily Tenkan-sen line and daily 20SMA, should contain extended pullbacks, to keep near-term bulls in play.

Res: 1.6182; 1.6200; 1.6225; 1.6250

Sup: 1.6126; 1.6100; 1.6086; 1.6065

The pair trades in extended consolidative phase under fresh high at 108.34, where acceleration of the upleg from 106.23 was so far capped and the downside attempts being for now contained by daily Kijun-sen line at 107.60. Bulls which started to develop on a daily chart, are still lacking traction, with yesterday’s Inside Day close, seen as warning. Potential fresh upside action requires sustained break above 108.00/34 barriers, to confirm resumption of recovery rally from 105.18, as near-term technicals hold positive tone. Otherwise, downside risk will remain in play, with acceleration on a break below pivotal 107.60 consolidation floor and near Fibonacci 38.2% of 106.23/108.34, to signal lower platform formation and fresh weakness towards psychological 107 support, also Fibonacci 61.8% of 106.23/108.34 upleg.

Res: 108.21; 108.34; 108.73; 109.00

Sup: 108.00; 107.60; 107.29; 107.00

Near-term structure remains positive, as the pair rallies higher and approaches pivotal 0.89 barrier, also short-term 0.8641/0.89 consolidative range top. Yesterday’s positive close signals fresh direction after Monday’s Doji, with daily RSI turning higher and above neutrality zone, while fresh bullish momentum is building up. Daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bullish cross at 0.8780, underpins the action. Near-term studies are bullish and support further action higher, however, overextended conditions signal possible hesitation on approach to 0.89 break point. Previous barriers at 0.8822/00, also Fibonacci 38.2% and 50% retracement of 0.8717/0.8880 upleg, should contain corrective dips.

Res: 0.8880; 0.8900; 0.8950; 0.9000

Sup: 0.8847; 0.8822; 0.8800; 0.8780

The Euro slumped post-Fed, with break and close below 1.2636, bull-trendline drawn off 1.2499 low, probing below near-term **** at 1.26 zone. Yesterday’s bearish Outside Day, confirms bears are back in play, with daily close below 1.26 ****, to signal possible full retracement of 1.2499/1.2884 ascend, as fresh weakness retraced so far 76.4% of the rally. Oversold near-term studies, however, require correction, which should, in extended mode, stay under previous strong support, now resistance, at 1.2690/1.2700 zone, where Fibonacci 61.8% of descend from 1.2769 lower top lies, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line and daily 20SMA.

Res: 1.2763; 1.2780; 1.2800; 1.2839

Sup: 1.2725; 1.2700; 1.2663; 1.2633

Yesterday’s long red candle confirms return of near-term bears back to play, as fresh acceleration lower left a double-top at 1.6180/82 and took out psychological 1.60 support and former higher low at 1.5992, on over 61.8% retracement of 1.5873/1.6182 upleg, seen so far. This sidelines near-term upside attempts, which were looking for retest of pivotal 1.6225 barrier and shifts focus back to key near-term support at 1.5873, low of 15 Oct. Oversold near-term conditions, suggest corrective action, which should be ideally capped under 1.61, Fibonacci 61.8% of entire descend from 1.6180, 28 Oct peak. Break above the latter is required to neutralize bears.

Res: 1.6015; 1.6046; 1.6071; 1.6100

Sup: 1.5962; 1.5939; 1.5900; 1.5873

The pair accelerated higher on fresh dollar’s strength, after completion of near-term consolidative phase and probes levels above psychological 109 barrier. Yesterday’s bullish close confirms daily bulls are fully in play for eventual test of key resistances at 110 zone. Corrective actions on overbought near-term studies, are expected before final push higher, with former high at 108.34, offering the first strong support, ahead of 107.60 higher ****, reinforced by daily 20SMA and daily Kijun-sen / Tenkan-sen bull cross, where extended corrective dips should be contained.

Res: 109.22; 109.50; 109.89; 110.07

Sup: 108.73; 108.34; 108.00; 107.60

The pair lost traction after yesterday’s probe above short-term range top and breakpoint at 0.89, with subsequent sharp fall, bringing the price back to the middle of 0.8641/0.8909 range. Yesterday’s bearish Outside Day could signal further weakness, which would bring range’s lower boundary in focus, in case of extension and close below 0.87 handle. Otherwise, prolonged range trading, would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 0.8800; 0.8831; 0.8858; 0.8900

Sup: 0.8753; 0.8717; 0.8700; 0.8673

The Euro probes again below 1.25 support, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.2042/1.3992 ascend / psychological support, which was dented last Friday, but the pair failed to sustain break closing above the level. Daily and weekly close in red confirms bearish stance, as confirmation of completion of 1.2500/1.2884, near term corrective phase, is required to resume larger bears for the final leg towards key longer-term support at 1.2042, July 2012 low. However, caution is still required and may keep bears on hold, in case of repeated bounce and close above 1.25 handle, which is signaled by daily RSI / MACD bullish divergence. Last Friday’s lower tops at 1.2542 and 1.2589, offer initial resistances, while 1.2630, 30 Oct lower top, marks a breakpoint, above which to neutralize bears.

Res: 1.2512; 1.2542; 1.2589; 1.2600

Sup: 1.2440; 1.2400; 1.2350; 1.2287

The pair dipped towards 1.59 support, break of which is required to confirm bearish breakout, paused by double Doji and failure to clear important 1.60 level, also 50% retracement of larger 1.4812/1.7189 rally. Overall picture, however, remains bearish and favors final push towards key 1.5873, 15 Oct low, but repeated failure to clear 1.60 handle, would be a good signal of bounce, which is required to clear initial barriers at 1.6037, lower top of 30 Oct and 1.6052, 50% retracement of 1.6180/1.5923 downleg, reinforced by daily Tenkan-sen line.

Res: 1.6000; 1.6037; 1.6052; 1.6082

Sup: 1.5923; 1.5900; 1.5873; 1.5850

The pair remains well supported and keeps the upside focused, as weekly gap higher open approached psychological 113 barrier. Strong bullish tone on larger timeframes, with weekly and daily close in long bullish candles, supports the notion, as the rally took out Fibonacci 76.4% of larger 124.14/75.55 descend. Sustained break above 113 barrier to open 115.92/117.95 Nov/Oct 2007 highs and in extension, 120.12, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1998/2011 147.68/75.55 descend. Previous highs and strong support at 110 zone, along with broken bear-trendline, connecting 2002/2007 peaks, should ideally contain corrective dips, which are signaled by overextended near-term studies.

Res: 113.00; 113.50; 114.00; 114.50

Sup: 112.50; 112.30; 112.00; 111.50

The pair came under pressure, after weekly opening occurred in gap-lower and triggered fresh weakness to 0.87 support zone, moving the price towards short-term range floor. Last Friday’s bearish Inside Day signaled fresh weakness, along with weekly close in long upper wick Doji candle, which signaled limited upside for now. Overall bearish tone keeps focus at the downside, along with fresh bears developing on lower timeframes studies. Final break below short-term range floor, to signal resumption of larger downtrend from 2011 peak at 1.1079 and look for test of its mid-point at 0.8543.

Res: 0.8759; 0.8800; 0.8850; 0.8900

Sup: 0.8700; 0.8673; 0.8641; 0.8600

The Euro bounces above 1.25 handle after posting fresh low at 1.2440, where temporary support was found. Overall negative tone and yesterday’s close below 1.25 level, suggest further downside after corrective action is completed, ideally under 1.2590/1.2600, 31.Oct lower top / 50% retracement of 1.2769/1.2440 downleg. On the other side, daily RSI / MACD bullish divergence signals possible stronger recovery action, which requires break above 1.2610/30 barriers, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.2884/1.2440 descend / daily Tenkan-sen line and 30 Oct lower top, to be confirmed

Res: 1.2542; 1.2590; 1.2600; 1.2630

Sup: 1.2500; 1.2469; 1.2440; 1.2400

The pair holds in near-term sideways mode, consolidating above psychological 1.59 support, which stays intact for now. Yesterday’s long-legged Doji, the third in a row, confirms near-term indecision, as the pair is still flirting with magnetic 1.60 level, also mid-point of larger 1.4812/1.7189 rally. Further consolidation is seen likely in the near-term, with breakout to signal fresh direction. Bears remain in play on larger timeframes and require clearance of temporary support at 1.5873, 15 Oct low, to resume larger descend from 1.7189. On the other side, fresh gains and close above 1.60 level, as well as lift above near-term range tops at 1.6035 zone, reinforced by 4-hour 55SMA and daily Tenkan-sen line/505 of 1.6180/1.5923, would be initial signal of higher **** formation and stronger recovery.

Res: 1.6019; 1.6037; 1.6052; 1.6082

Sup: 1.5963; 1.5923; 1.5900; 1.5873

The pair remains well supported and extended strong rally through psychological 114 barrier, which peaked at 114.20 yesterday. Strong bullish tone of larger timeframes, keeps the upside favored, with Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 147.68/75.55 descend at 120.26, coming in focus. While yesterday’s opening gap stays intact expect shallow correction before fresh push higher. Otherwise, slide below 112.30, last week’s closing level, would open way for stronger pullback, which would expose strong 110 support area.

Res: 114.00; 114.20; 114.50; 115.00

Sup: 113.26; 113.00; 112.50; 112.30

The pair remains under pressure in the near-term, following weekly gap-lower opening and fresh weakness through 0.87 support zone, which extended to test short-term range floor at 0.8641. Prevailing bearish tone favors eventual break of one-month range and extension of downmove from 0.95 zone, year-to-date high. Conversely, bounce and close above yesterday’s high at 0.8760, would avert immediate downside risk and signal prolonged sideways trade.

Res: 0.8735; 0.8760; 0.8800; 0.8850

Sup: 0.8700; 0.8672; 0.8641; 0.8600

The Euro’s extension of near-term corrective phase from fresh two-year low at 1.2440, with yesterday’s positive close, which occurred above 1.25 handle, was short-lived. The rally probed above 1.2565, 38.2% of 1.2769/1.2440 downleg, shy of the first breakpoints at 1.2600, round-figure / daily Tenkan-sen line and 1.2630, 30 Oct lower top, before pulling back. Return below 1.25 handle, neutralizes hopes of stronger rally, which was signaled by daily RSI / MACD bullish divergence and raises downside risk, which will be confirmed by sustained break and close below 1.25 level.

Res: 1.2500; 1.2529; 1.2565; 1.2576

Sup: 1.2469; 1.2440; 1.2400; 1.2350

The pair lost traction on attempt to sustain break above 1.60 handle, failing for now to capitalize on yesterday’s positive close, after repeated Dojis. Return below 1.60 level weakens near-term structure, with focus shifting towards near-term range’s floor, as overall picture remains bearish. Daily close below 1.5923, low of 03 Nov, to confirm bearish resumption towards psychological 1.59 level and key support at 1.5873, low of 15 Oct. Conversely, fresh attempts above 1.60 barrier, require break and close above 1.6052/61, daily Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen lines, to confirm break above near-term congestion and signal stronger recovery.

Res: 1.6000; 1.6020; 1.6037; 1.6052

Sup: 1.5923; 1.5900; 1.5873; 1.5850

The pair remains well supported and establishes above 114 handle, following yesterday’s pullback from 114.20, which was contained above psychological 113 support. Fresh bulls continue to move the price higher, despite overbought conditions on all timeframes, with extension above 115 barrier, expected to further accelerate gains. The pair focuses 118.00, Fibonacci 261.8% projection, ahead of more significant 120.26, Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of larger 147.68/75.55 descend, in the near-term, as bullish acceleration on a break above long-term bear-trendline, connecting 135.16 and 124.14, 2002/ 2007 peaks, sees scope for further retracement of multi-year 147.68/75.55 descend.

Res: 115.00; 115.48; 116.00; 116.50

Sup: 114.00; 113.50; 113.20; 113.00

Near-term price action comes under pressure after upside attempts failed to extend gains and fill Monday’s opening gap, as rally stalled at week’s high at 0.8760. Return below 0.87 handle, brings downside risk towards short-term congestion lows at 0.8641 in play, for eventual break lower and resumption of larger downtrend. Overall bears favor scenario. Only return and break above session highs, would sideline immediate bears, while break and close above 0.88 barrier is required to shift near-term focus higher.

Res: 0.8700; 0.8730; 0.8760; 0.8775

Sup: 0.8676; 0.8641; 0.8600; 0.8543