Windsor Brokers - Short Term Technical Analysis for Majors (07:00 GMT)

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The Euro ended week in positive tone, following last Friday’s strong rally from 1.3550 zone, where higher **** was formed, with support being reinforced bull-trendline off 1.2754 / daily 100DMA. Rally to 1.3686, so far retraced 50% of 1.3817/1.3547 downleg, with near-term technicals returning to bullish mode. Consolidation on overextended hourly studies is under way and so far contained at previous double-top at 1.3655, with further upside seen favored in the near-term. Immediate barriers lay at 1.3700/15 zone, round-figure / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement / daily Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen bearish cross, above which to open way towards strong 1.38 resistance zone. Any further dips should be ideally contained above 1.3630, 50% retracement of Friday’s 1.3567/1.3686 rally, to keep bulls in play.

Res: 1.3686; 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3753

Sup: 1.3655; 1.3630; 1.3612; 1.3595

Cable maintains positive near-term tone, as weekly close occurred just under 1.65 barrier, following last Friday’s bumpy post-US data ride, when price dipped to 1.6380, but quickly recovered losses. As 1.65 resistance, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6602/1.6336 descend, has been cracked, further upside is favored and requires clear break here to open key resistance at 1.6602, 02/01 peak. Positively aligned near-term studies support the notion, with corrective dips allowed to 1.6400, 61.8% of last Friday’s 1.6380/1.6515 rally, otherwise, downside pressure would increase on a violation of 1.6400/1.6380 supports

Res: 1.6450; 1.6500; 1.6515; 1.6539; 1.6577

Sup: 1.6480; 1.6447; 1.6430; 1.6400

The pair lost ground after last Friday’s upside rejection on approach to key 105.40 barrier and subsequent acceleration lower, losing 104.26 trendline support and more significant 104 ****. Fresh weakness approaches next support 103.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.60/105.43 ascend, with bearish near-term technicals keeping the downside in focus and the notion being supported by daily Evening Doji star. However, oversold conditions of lower timeframes studies, suggest consolidative / corrective phase, ahead of fresh weakness, with no reversal signal being generated yet. On the upside, previous supports at 103.90/104.00, offer initial and solid resistance, ahead of broken bear-trendline at 104.30, also 50% of last Friday’s fall, where rallies should be ideally capped.

Res: 103.90; 104.04; 104.30; 104.55

Sup: 103.24; 103.00; 102.50; 102.14

The pair regained strength and eventually broke above three-week congestion top at 0.9000, with fresh extension to 0.9046, marking over 61.8% retracement of 0.9165/0.8819 downleg. Immediate threat of fresh weakness and resumption of larger downtrend, is now sidelined, as near-term price action moves in corrective mode. Regain of key barrier at 0.9165, 10/12 high, is required to neutralize bears and confirm **** at 0.8820 zone. However, overbought conditions of 1 and 4-hour chart studies, would delay fresh upside attempts and allow for consolidative/corrective action, with initial support laying at 0.9000, reinforced by hourly 20DMA and 0.8960, 50% of 0.8879/0.9040 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55DMA, expected to contain. On the upside, next hurdles lay at 0.9083/91, Fibonacci 76.4% / 4-hour 55DMA, with clearance of psychological 0.9100 barrier, to clear way towards key 0.9165 level. Reversing daily indicators are supportive for further recovery action.

Res: 0.9040; 0.9083; 0.9100; 0.9165

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8978; 0.8960; 0.8940

The Euro maintains positive near-term tone and attempts above consolidation top at 1.3686, with price action being underpinned by hourly 55DMA. Positive 4-hour studies see the upside favored in the near-term, with break above initial resistance at 1.3686, also near 50% retracement of 1.3817/1.3547 downleg, to open next barrier at 1.3714, Fibonacci 61.8% and 1.3753, 76.4% retracement in extension. Sustained break above 1.37 hurdle is required to expose strong 1.38 resistance zone and confirm near-term **** at 1.3547. Initial support lies at 1.3650, 55DMA, below which comes 1.3636, consolidation floor / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3547/1.3698 upleg and 1.3623/00, 50% / 61.8%/trendline support, loss of which to bring bears in play and risk return to key 1.3547 support, 09/01 low / daily 100DMA.

Res: 1.3700; 1.3715; 1.3753; 1.3800

Sup: 1.3636; 1.3623; 1.3600; 1.3567

Cable lost ground after repeated rejection at 1.65 barrier triggered sharp two-legged fall that nearly fully retraced 1.6336/1.6515 upleg on a dip to 1.6345. Freshly established bears on lower timeframes and formation of lower top at 1.6515, see increased downside risk for break below 1.6336 handle towards immediate supports at 1.6316, higher platform / Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.5853/1.6602 and psychological 1.6300 support, also Fibonacci 76.4% expansion of the third wave from 1.6515, below which the wave could extend to 1.6234, its 100% expansion and 1.6212, 17/12 low. Conversely, holding above 1.6336, would prolong consolidation and signal basing attempt, with bounce through pivotal 1.6430/40 barriers, required to confirm.

Res: 1.6427; 1.6445; 1.6464; 1.6500

Sup: 1.6400; 1.6366; 1.6345; 1.6336

The pair lost ground after last Friday’s upside rejection on approach to key 105.40 barrier and subsequent acceleration through trendline support and 104 ****. Fresh extension lower cracked 103.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 101.60/105.43 ascend. Negative near-term technicals keep the downside in focus, with corrective action on oversold hourlies, seen preceding fresh weakness. Bounce from fresh low at 102.84, through initial barrier at 103.55 needs to clear 103.69/80, 55DMA / Fibonacci 38.2% of 105.34/102.84 and regain important 104.00 handle, to avert immediate downside risk. Otherwise, lower top formation and further retracement towards 102.50, Fibonacci 76.4% of 101.60/105.43 and 102.00, psychological support / Fibonacci 38.2% of larger 96.55/105.43 ascend, would be likely near-term scenario.

Res: 103.80; 104.00; 104.39; 104.75

Sup: 103.22; 102.84; 102.50; 102.14

The pair regained strength and eventually broke above three-week congestion top at 0.9000, with fresh extension to 0.9084, 76.4% retracement of 0.9165/0.8819 downleg, signaling further recovery. Break above psychological 0.9100 barrier and regain of key barrier at 0.9165, 10/12 high, is required to neutralize bears and confirm **** at 0.8820 zone. However, corrective pullback on overbought conditions of 1 and 4-hour chart studies, would delay fresh upside attempts, with dips facing initial support at 0.9000, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.8879/0.9084 upleg, reinforced by hourly 55DMA and 0.8982, 50% retracement, where further dips should be contained.

Res: 0.9044; 0.9083; 0.9100; 0.9165

Sup: 0.9000; 0.8982; 0.8957; 0.8927

The Euro’s near-term tone weakened, as the price failed to clear psychological 1.37 barrier after brief probe above recent range top at 1.3686 and subsequent easing cracked range’s lower boundary at 1.3636. Hourly studies turned negative, with downside risk towards Fibonacci 50% and 61.8% of 1.3547/1.3698 upleg, being in play. On the other side, overall picture remains bullish, with positive 4-hour conditions being supportive for renewed attempt higher, once corrective phase is completed. Dips should be contained at / above 1.36 handle, also trendline support, to keep the scenario valid. Otherwise, risk of lower top formation at 1.3698 and return to initial support at 1.3550, 09/01 low / daily 100DMA, will remain on the table.

Res: 1.3643; 1.3657; 1.3689; 1.3700

Sup: 1.3600; 1.3583; 1.3567; 1.3552

Cable remains in near-term directionless mode, trading within 1.6510 and 1.6336 range, with the price action moving below range’s midpoint. Hourly studies are losing traction after yesterday’s rejection at 1.6463, with 4-hour technicals being in neutral mode. This sees potential for prolonged sideways trading, with break of either boundary required to define near-term direction. Positive daily studies keep the upside focused, however, loss of initial support and higher **** at 1.6340 zone, as well as psychological 1.6300, also Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of 1.6212/1.6602, would undermine the structure and risk deeper pullback.

Res: 1.6400; 1.6426; 1.6463; 1.6490

Sup: 1.6375; 1.6366; 1.6336; 1.6300

The pair regained strength on yesterday’s bounce from fresh low at 102.84, as subsequent acceleration peaked at 104.46 and retraced over 61.8% of 105.34/102.84 downleg. Corrective pullback on overbought hourly conditions should find support around 103.70, near mid-point of entire rally, to keep fresh bulls in play, however, still weak 4hour conditions require caution. Regain of 105 handle to confirm higher low formation and re-focus key barriers at 105.34/43, conversely, slide below 103.70 would risk further weakness and retest of 103.00/102.84 supports.

Res: 104.46; 104.60; 105.05; 105.34

Sup: 104.00; 103.65; 103.46; 103.22

The pair lost ground again after recovery stalled at 0.9083 and subsequent pullback lost 0.9000/0.8980 support, to extend weakness to psychological 0.8900 support. This confirms false break above near-term range and shifts near-term focus lower, as near-term technicals turned negative. Consolidation around 0.89 support is seen on oversold hourly conditions, with corrective rallies to face resistances at 0.8950/70 and 0.9000, previous support and bearish 20/55DMA’s cross, seen capping for now. Extension below 0.8900 handle would risk return to near-term **** and key support at 0.8820 zone.

Res: 0.8922; 0.8950; 0.8970; 0.9000

Sup: 0.8879; 0.8842; 0.8819; 0.8800

The Euro remains under pressure in the near-term, as yesterday’s extension of two-day pullback from 1.3698 peak retested strong support at 1.3580 zone, where trendline support and daily Ichimoku cloud top limit the downside attempts for now. Negative tone prevails on 4-hour chart, while hourly structure improves on corrective bounce above 1.36 barrier that test hourly pivot at 1.3625, Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.3698/1.3580 / 55DMA. Break here to trigger stronger recovery towards the next significant hurdle at 1.3655, previous consolidation range floor and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement. Key near-term barrier lies at 1.3700, top of near-term 1.3580/1.3700 congestion, with break above to signal resumption of recovery phase from 1.3547. However, weak overall tone, with daily indicators entering negative territory, sees the downside vulnerable, with loss of key support and pivotal point at 1.3580, seen as a trigger for further easing towards 1.3547, 09/01 low, reinforced by daily 100DMA and 1.3522/00, Fibonacci 61.8% of 1.3294/1.3892 / round figure support, in extension.

Res: 1.3625; 1.3655; 1.3700; 1.3714

Sup: 1.3600; 1.3580; 1.3547; 1.3522

Cable’s near-term focus shifts lower, as the price probes below near-term congestion low at 1.6340 zone. Extension near psychological 1.63 support, so far retraced 38.2% of larger 1.5853/1.6602 ascend at 1.6316, also Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.6212/1.6602, below which to complete daily H&S pattern and trigger further easing, as extension of pullback from 1.6602, 02/01 peak. Weak near-term studies support the notion, with lower platform at 1.6375, also Fibonacci 38.2% of 1.6463/1.6321 descend, offering initial resistance and 1.64 barrier, 61.8%, expected to cap corrective rallies.

Res: 1.6375; 1.6409; 1.6436; 1.6463

Sup: 1.6320; 1.6300; 1.6261; 1.6212

The pair remains positive and extends near-term rally off 102.84, 13/01 low, close to strong 105 resistance zone and previous congestion tops. Positive near-term technicals support attempt through 105 hurdle for final push towards key barrier and tops at 105.40/43, regain of which to complete 105.43/102.84 corrective phase. Corrective dips should be ideally contained at 104.20/00, 15/01 higher low / Fibonacci 38.2% of 102.84/104.93 / round figure support, to keep fresh bulls intact.

Res: 105.05; 105.34; 105.43; 105.58

Sup: 104.44; 104.13; 104.00; 103.65

The pair accelerated lower after full retracement of 0.8819/0.9084 corrective phase and loss of near-term **** at 0.8820 zone. Fresh bears tested psychological 0.8800 support, as resumption of larger downtrend from 1.1079, 2011 peak, looks for test of 0.8769, Aug 2010 low and 0.8576/43, Feb 2010 low / 50% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 rally. With bears being fully in play, downtrend may be interrupted by corrective rallies on oversold near-term studies. Initial resistance lay between 0.8820 and 0.8860, previous lows, while only break above 0.89 barrier and Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9084/0.8794 fall, would delay immediate bears for more significant corrective action.

Res: 0.8820; 0.8842; 0.8863; 0.8900

Sup: 0.8794; 0.8769; 0.8733; 0.8700

The Euro consolidates above fresh low at 1.3506, with the upside attempts being limited by hourly 55DMA /daily 100DMA / daily cloud **** at 1.3566. Weak near-term studies do not see much of the upside prospect for now, as layers of strong resistances lay above, with the next ones at 1.3580, previous **** and 38.2% retracement of 1.3698/1.3506 and 1.36 zone, 50% retracement / daily cloud top / 4-hour 55DMA, above which comes double-Fibonacci barrier at 1.3625 and lower top of 16 Jan at 1.3648. Only break here would neutralize near-term bears and turn near-term focus towards the upside. Otherwise, lower top, ideally around 1.36 handle, where broken bull-trendline off 1.2754 low reinforces barrier and fresh weakness, is seen as preferred near-term scenario. Break below 1.35 handle to resume weakness off 1.3892 top and expose 1.3435, Fibonacci 76.4% of 1.3294/1.3892 and psychological 1.3400 support.

Res: 1.3566; 1.3580; 1.3600; 1.3625

Sup: 1.3506; 1.3460; 1.3430; 1.3400

Cable trades in near-term consolidative mode, with price action entrenched within 1.6457/1.6393. The pair is so far unable to clearly break above bear-trendline off 1.6602 peak, currently at 1.6430 and last Friday’s peak at 1.6457 that keeps the downside risk in play. However, near-term technicals remain positively aligned, with hourly studies lacking momentum for now. Sustained break above 1.6457 is required to resume rally off 1.6393 and confirm bottom at 1.6393 that would open next significant barrier at 1.6515, 10 Jan lower top, for retest. Otherwise, downside risk would increase in case of violation of initial support and higher **** at 1.64 zone.

Res: 1.6457; 1.6500; 1.6515; 1.6577

Sup: 1.6422; 1.6409; 1.6393; 1.6364

The pair regained strength after finding ground at 103.90 support zone, as fresh rally approaches initial barrier at 104.93. Break here is required to complete 104.93/103.85 corrective phase and confirm higher low formation for fresh attempt towards key hurdles at 105.40 zone. Positive near-term technicals support the notion, with overbought hourly studies seeing possible hesitation on approach. Downside should be ideally protected at 104.40, hourly 20DMA / hourly Kijun-sen line, to keep freshly established bulls off 103.85 intact. Otherwise, lower top formation and return to initial 103.90 support zone, with increased downside risk, would be likely scenario.

Res: 104.78; 104.93; 105.05; 105.34

Sup: 104.56; 104.40; 104.13; 103.89

The pair remains in narrow range consolidative phase, after posting fresh low at 0.8755, with near-term tone being negatively aligned. Overall picture remains bearish and favors further downside, as acceleration through previous **** at 0.8820 and psychological 0.8800 support signals resumption of larger downtrend towards next targets at 0.8576/43, Feb 2010 low / 50% retracement of multi-year 0.6007/1.1079 rally. Corrective rallies on oversold near-term studies remain capped at range top t 0.8830 zone, previous low / consolidation top / 4-hour 20DMA that keep the upside attempts limited. Only extension above 0.8881, Fibonacci 38.2% of 0.9084/0.8755 and psychological 0.8900 barrier would provide near-term relief.

Res: 0.8836; 0.8863; 0.8881; 0.8900

Sup: 0.8775; 0.8755; 0.8733; 0.8700